2008.02.12
Will Texas be Clinton's Alamo?
Paul Goldman is one of the smartest political strategists I know. Virginians know him as the mastermind behind Doug Wilder’s run for governor. One reason I like Paul is because his analysis often runs counter to everyone else’s. The prevailing opinion at the moment is that the Virginia results tonight are an embarrassment for McCain; Paul’s a Democrat, but he just called in from Richmond to say he thinks the big loser in Virginia tonight is Huckabee.
McCain didn’t put much effort into Virginia, but Huckabee still couldn’t beat him. “That’s the story of the night,” Goldman says. (By the way, McCain’s percentage has now dropped back under 50 percent.)
Goldman likes war analogies and offers two. First, he says Clinton is in deeper trouble than anyone realizes. “Clinton is like Colonel Travis at the Alamo. She’s making her last stand and she’s going to have to make it on her own, because Sam Houston isn’t showing up again.”
He also predicts Clinton will lose in Texas -- the next big states are Ohio and Texas on March 4 -- and then the game will be up . . . because of another war analogy.
Goldman predicts McCain will rally conservatives by opening up “a two-front war” on the Democrats -- and start trying to force them to commit themselves on the Iraq war. Once McCain starts tearing into the Democrats on a daily basis, Goldman figures Democrats will realize they can’t afford to continue the Obama-Clinton nomination fight -- and superdelegates will rally behind the leader. Who right now is Obama.
Anyone else have opinions on how this will play out from here?
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor
