2008.11.04
Analysis: Obama will win Virginia like Webb did
Nobody's called Virginia yet, but they may as well: Obama has a slight lead in the state. But most of the precincts still out are in Northern Virginia localities that have been voting for Obama. The only sizeable locality still out that McCain is winning is Virginia Beach, and it's hard to see how there are more votes still outstanding in Virginia Beach than there are in Northern Virginia.
If that pattern holds, Obama's victory in Virginia is going to look more like Jim Webb's in the 2006 Senate race than Tim Kaine's in the 2005 governor's race.
We've been focused -- well, I've been focused -- on comparing tonight's numbers with the 2004 Bush victory and the 2005 Kaine victory. But Webb's 2006 race may be the more accurate comparison.
Obama has lost lots of places that Bush won that Kaine managed to carry. But Webb, like Obama, also fared poorly in the coalfields. Webb, like Obama, lost Virginia Beach. But then he ran up big numbers in Northern Virginia. That's exactly what's happening here tonight. So maybe those rural areas don't count for as much as I've insisted they do.
Only 52 percent of Fairfax County is in, and Obama is winning there with 59 percent of the vote.
To be fair to McCain, only 44 percent of Virginia Beach is in, and McCain is taking that with 54 percent.
But then there's also still Loudoun County and Prince William, which still have votes out. Obama's winning there. Ditto Arlington.
We also have no results at all from Charles City County, a rural county just east of Richmond, that should go heavily for Obama. We also have no results from Suffolk, which was a Bush locality four years ago.
Still, this looks like an Obama win in Virginia.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
