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We've just now gotten the figures on what turn-out was at 10 a.m. at precincts around the Roanoke and New River valleys, and here's what I make of those numbers:

Black turn-out is heavy in Roanoke.

Roanoke has seven predominantly African-American precincts and, historically, turn-out there is lower than in the white precincts.

Today, it's not. The 10 a.m. turn-out figures showed voters in those precincts turning out at the same rate as their white counterparts, if not higher -- with just one exception. That's the Villa Heights precinct.

Some numbers to chew on:

Let's take Fishburn Park, a solidly Republican precinct on the edge of South Roanoke. In the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, turn-out there was 68 percent and 70 percent.

By comparison, let's look at some of the black precincts in Roanoke. The two lowest-voting black precincts have historically been Lincoln Terrace and Melrose.

* Lincoln Terrace saw 47 percent turnout in 2000, 55 percent in 2004.

* Melrose saw turnouts of 50 percent and 54 percent.

Both, of course, are distinctly lower than our comparison precinct in Fishburn Park.

But today?

Well, by 10 a.m., slightly more than 30 percent of the voters in Fishburn Park had gone to the polls.

And in Lincoln Terrace? The same figure! In Melrose, almost the same figure -- 26 percent.

So the two lowest-voting black precincts are voting at the same rate as one of the most reliable (and Republican) white precincts. If those voting trends continue, Lincoln Terrace and Melrose would see their turn-out go up by about 40 percent. Or more.

I'm assuming they'll wind up running about even with Fishburn Park -- so an increase of about 50 percent turnout to 70 percent turnout. But, of course, turnout could run higher, which would mean a proprotionately bigger increase in the black precincts than the white precincts.

Now, some of the other black precincts usually have a little better turn-out, though not as strong as many of the white precincts. By the 10 a.m. figures show their turn-out to be stronger than many white precincts.

For instance, Washington Heights had 35 percent turn-out, Westside had 34 percent. Both better than Fishburn Park. (Don't mean to keep harping on Fishburn Park, but it's actually an excellent example of a precinct that always turns out strong.)

Now, the black precincts aren't the highest voting precincts in the city. Those honors belong to South Roanoke No. 1(with 51 percent turnout)  and Raleigh Court No. 5 (with 41 percent turnout). Both of those were precincts that Bush carried.

Of course, those were also precincts that Democrat Tim Kaine carried in his race for governor in 2006.

So what does that mean?

Check back for more analysis as the day goes on.

-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor