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We've been telling you all year that Virginia is a swing state this year. Just in case we haven't said it enough, let's say it one more time: If Barack Obama wins Virginia tonight, that likely means he's won the presidency. If John McCain wins, well, the race moves on to some other states.

Here's why:

* Every analysis I've seen -- from all political persuasions -- concedes that Obama will carry the states that John Kerry won in 2004. The only real exception is Pennsylvania, where there's been some softness in Obama's support, particularly among blue-collar voters in the western part of the state. That's one reason McCain has spent so much time there. If McCain can steal away Pennsylvania with its 21 electoral votes, well, all bets are off. Then it might be "Dewey Defeats Truman" time. It's mathematically possible for Obama to win without Pennsylvania, but realistically, it's a lot harder. Do we really think a Democrat can lose Pennsylvania but win Virginia? I don't think so.

* But if Obama holds all the Kerry states, that puts him at 252 electoral votes -- with 270 needed to win.

* Every analysis I've seen also assumes that Obama will pick up Iowa, which had been a pretty reliable Democratic state (heck, it even went for Dukakis in '88), but somehow slipped away to Bush in 2004. That would put him at 259.

* From there, there's a menu of options. Obama would need to just win one of these swing states, all of which went to Bush in '04 -- Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Indiana will get early attention tonight, because most of its polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern time, well before many other states. However, Lake County, a Democratic stronghold near Chicago, is in Central time, and the polls don't close there until 7 p.m. Eastern. So the first returns we see from Indiana will be from Republican counties. But count me as skeptical about Obama's chances in Indiana -- this is a state Bush won by 21 points in 2004.

Of those six states, Obama's best chance might be Virginia. It's one of the few states on that list where polls have shown him over 50 percent (although not, to be sure, in the Mason-Dixon Poll we published on Sunday.) So that's why the eyes of the nation will be on Virginia -- and why my eyes will be on places such as Williamson Road and Raleigh Court as the numbers start to come in. Whatever trend we see in Virginia, I'd like to be able to spot it early, and close to home.

If McCain manages to hold all those states, then the election moves west. Obama would need a combination of either Colorado and New Mexico or Colorado and Nevada to put him over the top. New Mexico and Nevada together won't do it. In fact, that would leave the election tied at 269 electoral votes apiece, and throw the whole thing to the House of Representatives, something that hasn't happened since 1824.

I'm not sure anybody wants that kind of history-making election.

Anyway, the polls in Virginia close at 7 p.m. (the same time those in Lake County, Indiana do). Stick around and we'll see what happens.

-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor