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Mapping the results: See how they won

The Virginia Public Access Project -- a non-profit group that tracks political fund-raising -- has produced some interesting maps to help interpret Tuesday's results of the Democratic primary for governor.

This one shows a map of the state, color-coded by who won where. As you'll see, it's pretty much all Creigh Deeds.

This one shows voter turn-out around the state. You'll see a trend: The localities with the highest voter turn-out were a) in Northern Virginia, which used to have some of the lowest turn-out in Virgina elections b) some of the cities, such as Richmond, Hampton, Petersburg and Portsmouth and c) the localities that Creigh Deeds has represented in the state Senate, stretching from the Alleghany Highlands to Charlottesville.

Some of the lowest voter turn-out was in Southwest Virginia.

Analysis: What happens next

So, we get a rematch.

Four years ago, Democrat Creigh Deeds and Republican Bob McDonnell faced off for attorney general. McDonnell won that one, with a margin so narrow it allowed for a recount.

Now, the two square off again, this time for governor, after Deeds stunning come-from-behind win in the Democratic primary for governor.

They say those who don't remember history are doomed to repeat it. But what if we do remember our history? Here's some history we might want to remember as we embark on Deeds vs. McDonnell, The Sequel:

* Is this 2009 or 1989?
Deeds' win reminds me of Marshall Coleman's surprise victory in the Republican primary for governor in 1989. Like Deeds, Coleman had run statewide before and lost. (Actually, he had won once, and lost once, and then lost a convention fight four years later. But, point being, he had been tagged as a "loser.") Paul Trible stunned the state by giving up his Senate seat to run for governor.  He was the  the front-runner -- much as McAuliffe was this time around. But Coleman raised enough doubts about him to pull off an upset.  The victory restored Coleman's winning luster, but not for long. He began the race out of money, with a divided party, and it took him a long time to gear up for the general election.  Democrats probably aren't as divided this year as Republicans were then, but still . . . does the primary battle help Deeds by giving him a winning aura? Or does it simply mean he now starts the race out of money and with a worn-out staff while McDonnell has had more than a year to prepare?

* Will Creigh Deeds be the Wyatt Durrette of 2009? Durrette was the Republican nominee for attorney general in 1981. He lost a close race that a lot of people thought he should won and he used that as a stepping-stone to run for governor in 1985. But you can't lose you way to the top. Durrette lost the governor's race that year, too.

* Is this destined to be a Republican year in Virginia? For more than 30 years, whatever party has won the White House has lost the Virginia governor's race the following year. Democrats won the White House with Jimmy Carter in 1976; the Republicans won the governorship with John Dalton in 1977. You can count up the string yourself after that. So now, Barack Obama was elected president in 2008. If history is any guide, that means the Republicans should win the governorship this year. Or is this just a fluke? A curious coincidence?

Of course, we've seen history only goes so far. In the past, we've seen Democratic candidates for governor distance themselves from the national party. That will be a lot harder to do this year, especially when the outgoing governor is the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. And given that Obama carried Virginia last year, well, maybe Deeds won't want to.  On the other hand, Republicans would dearly love to claim a victory somewhere this year, and doing it in Virginia would be especially sweet. So I'd expect the both parties to devote a lot of resources to the Old Dominion this year -- Republicans because they are eager for a win, and Democrats because they're eager to defend what they've won in years past.

McDonnell starts with the advantage of having won statewide once before. Deeds starts with the advantage of being the star of the week. McDonnell has the advantage of coming from one of the state's popultion centers; Deeds has the advantage of being strong in a part of the state where Democrats often have been weak.

A Deeds-McDonnell race for governor won't be nearly as exciting as a McAuliffe-McDonnell campaign would have been. That would have been the kind of thing you'd pay to see in a cage match over at the Roanoke Civic Center.  I've met both men over the years -- McDonnell's a little stiff, Deeds is sometimes as exuberant as a puppy. Whether those traits are good or bad, or irrelevant, is a matter of taste. I've found them both to be serious-minded people who have a track record of being engaged in public policy in the state. A boring campaign that deals with some serious issues wouldn't be such a bad thing, now would it?

-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor

Analysis: How Deeds did it

No matter what happens after this, Creigh Deeds' victory will go down as a textbook example of what can happen in a three-way race when the two front-runners beat each other senseless, and the third guy becomes the consensus alternative.

It wasn't too long ago that I met a prominent Democrat on Jefferson Street in downtown Roanoke; he was shaking his head in despair that Deeds had decided to run for governor instead of trying again for attorney general. He thought Deeds was a sure loser.

And he was -- for awhile. When this was a two-man race -- Brian Moran vs. Creigh Deeds, most pundits assumed Moran would win for the simple reason that Northern Virginia would defeat rural Virginia anyway. Then Terry McAuliffe jumped into the race. That completely threw Moran off his game, it seemed. From that point on, McAuliffe was the story and, well, my sense is The Macker just imploded.

He would have been a very different kind of candidate. Where Virginia Democrats were accustomed to nominating a conciliatory Mark Warner or Tim Kaine type, McAuliffe was all about hype and flash and, well, confrontation, if need be. My sense is a lot of Democrats realized that just wasn't a winning formula in Virginia. (Historical note: McAuliffe was very much aligned with Bill Clinton; and let's remember that Obama smoked Hillary Clinton in the Virginia primary a year ago.)

It's sort of like the old line about how picking a candidate is like picking a spouse: McAuliffe was a hot date for awhile but not a long-term relationship. He might yell at the neighbors and embarrass you in front of your relatives. Deeds might not be flashy, but he'll make sure the the trash gets taken out and the kids get to soccer practice on time.

The turning point for Deeds was when he got the Washington Post endorsement. I don't know whether newspaper endorsements matter much in a general election, but in a primary, well, clearly a lot of Democrats in Northern Virginia paid attention to the Post. That gave Deeds -- from tiny Bath County -- pretty powerful street cred in the suburbs.

From that point on, Deeds moved up up up in the polls. Over the past few days, we saw not only a flurry of polls showing his momentum, but we also saw many Democratic pols come out to support him. That was a give-away there: Politicians like to be on the winning side.

Still, the breadth and depth of Deeds' victory is pretty amazing, especially considering where he was coming from in the polls (someplace south of zero, it seemed):

Consider:

* Deeds won almost everywhere.
If you colored in a map of Virginia, whatever color you assigned to Deeds, that's what color the map would be. The only places he didn't carry were some localities in eastern Virginia, often with large African-American populations. McAuliffe won Amelia County, Greensville County, James City County, and Emporia. Moran won Charles City County, Dinwiddie County and Petersburg. But Deeds wasn't far out of the money, and he won places such as Norfolk and Richmond.

McAuliffe also picked up two stray localities in far Southwest Virginia -- Norton and Wise County. And Moran won his home city, Alexandria.

Let's look at it another way:

* Deeds won 10 the state's 11 congressional districts. The only district he didn't win was the Third District, the predominantly black district that stretches from Richmond to Norfolk. McAuliffe took that, by a slim margin.

* Deeds won by impressive numbers in Northern Virginia -- especially considering he's from rural Bath County, and the other two guys were from NoVa itself. But Deeds absolutely smoked 'em in rural Virginia. He took 64 percent of the vote in the Fifth District in Southside Virginia, 68 percent of the Ninth District in Southwest Virginia and 72 percent in the Sixth District, which runs from Roanoke up into the Shenandoah Valley.

* Despite the big margins, voter turnout was pretty light in Southwest Virginia. I spotted one precinct -- the wonderfully-named Frying Pan Precinct in Dickenson County -- which recorded only five voters. Deeds won 'em all.

* You don't see numbers like this very often: Deeds took 97 percent of the vote in Alleghany County, 97 percent in Covington and 97 percent in Highland County. Compared to those numbers, he took "only" 96 percent of the vote in his home county of Bath.

-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor

Analysis: Final numbers in the Republican House race

Here are the unofficial returns, with all the precincts reporting:

Cleaveland 893
Head 769
Wray 613
Johnson 549
Williams 357

Cleaveland won in Roanoke and Botetourt County, and came in a close third in Roanoke County. Wray won Roanoke County but then finished last in both the city and the two Botetourt precincts.

Head almost did what Cleaveland did -- put together a broad-based win, but just couldn't put enough votes together.

Johnson, who has targeted young professionals, ran strong in the city, but then fizzled out elsewhere.

Williams seemed the candidate most identified with the social conservative wing of the Republican Party and, well, I'm surprised to see him come in fifth. That part of the party has been ascendant for so long that it's unusual to see this poor a showing. It should be noted, though, that Williams raised and spent a lot less money than any of the other candidates.

-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor

Signer statement on Wagner win

STATEMENT FROM MIKE SIGNER ON JODY WAGNER'S VICTORY

"I want to congratulate my opponent Jody Wagner for her victory today.  She was a formidable opponent and she ran a smart, tough campaign.   I know she’s going to take the fight to Bill Bolling this fall and carry forward the extraordinary legacy of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine as our next Lieutenant Governor.  I look forward to helping Jody in any way I can to defeat the Republican ticket in November.

I want to thank the many people who have supported me in this campaign: my family, my staff and advisors, the dozens of unions, elected officials, local party chairs, bloggers, donors, and community and grassroots leaders who endorsed, advised, and supported my campaign.

What we accomplished today was impressive by any measure.  In four months, despite being outspent almost three to one, we broke through with thousands of voters all over the state on the power of ideas.

Bill Bolling and the Republican leadership in Virginia have failed to deliver for hard-working Virginians and should be held to account this fall.  I look forward to working with Jody Wagner, Creigh Deeds, and Steve Shannon to deliver a Democratic victory in November."

Cleaveland wins in 17th

Lawyer Bill Cleaveland has won the vote in Roanoke city according to the registrar's office and with that, he is ahead with all the uncertified vote returned in the five-way race for the Republican nomination in the 17th state House District. Cleaveland was just announced as the GOP nominee at a gathering at the Hotel Roanoke and Conference Center.

Cleaveland will face Democrat Gwen Mason, a Roanoke City Council member, in the general election to succeed Del. William Fralin, R-Roanoke, who is not running for re-election.

Fralin wrote Cleaveland a $20,000 check after he was declared the winner this evening.

Analysis: Cleaveland holds 33-vote lead, waiting on city

The last precinct in Roanoke County has reported, so now the Republican primary for the 17th District House of Delegates seat comes down to the city -- which so far hasn't reported anything to the State Board of Elections.

For now, Bill Cleaveland holds a 33-vote lead over Chris Head, with Mike Wray in third place:

Cleaveland 522
Head 489
Wray 479
Johnson 191
Williams 157

Bolling releases statement on Wagner win

RICHMOND, VA – In response to Jody Wagner’s victory in the Democratic Lieutenant Governor’s primary, Bolling for Lieutenant Governor Campaign Manager, Matt Wells, issues the following statement:

“Bill Bolling’s 18 years of service in local government, the State Senate and as Lieutenant Governor make him by far the most qualified candidate to ever seek the Lieutenant Governor’s office and the only candidate who is prepared to be Governor should the need arise. His record of working with Republicans and Democrats to find solutions to the challenges facing Virginia provides a clear contrast with Ms. Wagner and her inexperienced and partisan approach to government.”

Garrett wins Democratic nomination for Roanoke sheriff

Frank Garrett has won the Democratic nomination for Roanoke sheriff with 65 percent of the vote.

Garrett beat out Joe Bush. He will face his current boss, Sheriff Octavia Johnson, a Republican, and Brian Keenum, an independent, in the November election.

Garrett, 51, has been a sheriff's deputy in Roanoke for five years, providing courtroom security and teaching the Drug Abuse Resistance Education program in city elementary schools. Before coming to the sheriff's office, he worked for the Roanoke Police Department for 25 years. There, he also taught DARE, investigated crimes against children and served on the bicycle and mounted patrols.

Elswick leads McNamara in Roanoke County

Based on uncertified vote tonight, challenger Ed Elswick has pulled an upset, defeating R oanoke County Supervisor Joe McNamara by 24 votes in the Windsor Hills District Republican primary.  With all seven of the district's precincts reporting, Elswick has 381 votes to McNamara's 357.

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    • Kinda Silly: Unless the Kaine has the power to stop the rains and part the water, I don’t see any reason for...
    • Joe C: I guess Bob was right - we do have a part time Governor. Hey at least after 4 years we have a smoking ban in...
    • mountain star: I really do hate to see this….The Governor, needed to be, should have been, and will greatly...
    • Ron Bergeron: What forms of revenue is McDonnell considering to avoid new and/or increased taxes (and any financial...
    • really: Unfortunately voting for someone just because of their party can be dangerous and blind. Sheriff Johnson has...