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Analysis: What happens next

So, we get a rematch.

Four years ago, Democrat Creigh Deeds and Republican Bob McDonnell faced off for attorney general. McDonnell won that one, with a margin so narrow it allowed for a recount.

Now, the two square off again, this time for governor, after Deeds stunning come-from-behind win in the Democratic primary for governor.

They say those who don't remember history are doomed to repeat it. But what if we do remember our history? Here's some history we might want to remember as we embark on Deeds vs. McDonnell, The Sequel:

* Is this 2009 or 1989?
Deeds' win reminds me of Marshall Coleman's surprise victory in the Republican primary for governor in 1989. Like Deeds, Coleman had run statewide before and lost. (Actually, he had won once, and lost once, and then lost a convention fight four years later. But, point being, he had been tagged as a "loser.") Paul Trible stunned the state by giving up his Senate seat to run for governor.  He was the  the front-runner -- much as McAuliffe was this time around. But Coleman raised enough doubts about him to pull off an upset.  The victory restored Coleman's winning luster, but not for long. He began the race out of money, with a divided party, and it took him a long time to gear up for the general election.  Democrats probably aren't as divided this year as Republicans were then, but still . . . does the primary battle help Deeds by giving him a winning aura? Or does it simply mean he now starts the race out of money and with a worn-out staff while McDonnell has had more than a year to prepare?

* Will Creigh Deeds be the Wyatt Durrette of 2009? Durrette was the Republican nominee for attorney general in 1981. He lost a close race that a lot of people thought he should won and he used that as a stepping-stone to run for governor in 1985. But you can't lose you way to the top. Durrette lost the governor's race that year, too.

* Is this destined to be a Republican year in Virginia? For more than 30 years, whatever party has won the White House has lost the Virginia governor's race the following year. Democrats won the White House with Jimmy Carter in 1976; the Republicans won the governorship with John Dalton in 1977. You can count up the string yourself after that. So now, Barack Obama was elected president in 2008. If history is any guide, that means the Republicans should win the governorship this year. Or is this just a fluke? A curious coincidence?

Of course, we've seen history only goes so far. In the past, we've seen Democratic candidates for governor distance themselves from the national party. That will be a lot harder to do this year, especially when the outgoing governor is the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. And given that Obama carried Virginia last year, well, maybe Deeds won't want to.  On the other hand, Republicans would dearly love to claim a victory somewhere this year, and doing it in Virginia would be especially sweet. So I'd expect the both parties to devote a lot of resources to the Old Dominion this year -- Republicans because they are eager for a win, and Democrats because they're eager to defend what they've won in years past.

McDonnell starts with the advantage of having won statewide once before. Deeds starts with the advantage of being the star of the week. McDonnell has the advantage of coming from one of the state's popultion centers; Deeds has the advantage of being strong in a part of the state where Democrats often have been weak.

A Deeds-McDonnell race for governor won't be nearly as exciting as a McAuliffe-McDonnell campaign would have been. That would have been the kind of thing you'd pay to see in a cage match over at the Roanoke Civic Center.  I've met both men over the years -- McDonnell's a little stiff, Deeds is sometimes as exuberant as a puppy. Whether those traits are good or bad, or irrelevant, is a matter of taste. I've found them both to be serious-minded people who have a track record of being engaged in public policy in the state. A boring campaign that deals with some serious issues wouldn't be such a bad thing, now would it?

-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor

1 Comment »

  1. Congrats to Creigh Deeds. This is just further proof that Virginians like having a Democrat leading the Commonwealth. Creigh Deeds is going to make a great Governor. The sad part is it will only take Bob McDonnell 24 hours before he and the republicans start with their traditional lie and smear campaign. At least the people of Virginia will have someone like Deeds to represent them instead of the special interest ideologues that prop up McDonnell.

    Comment by Mark — June 10, 2009 @ 12:03 am

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