Every vote counts the same on election day.
But when it comes to election analysis, well, some votes count more than others. The trick to election night is identifying the bellwethers -- the localities that tend swing back and forth, and always go with the winners.
That's easier to do in general elections than in primary elections. In general elections, there are localities that are well-known to trend either Democratic or Republican, so all you have to do is spot one trending the other way for a change, and bam, you've got some election analysis. Flash: Whig Party candidate Jeremiah P. Hornblower III projected to win.
With primaries, well, it's different: We're not looking tonight at Democrats vs. Republicans, but certain species of Democrats (in the gubernatorial primary, that is; we'll deal with different species of Republicans in the 17th District House race.)
In figuring out the Democratic race for governor, we begin with this basic fact:
* Northern Virginia is the key. You tell me who wins Northern Virginia (which, mind you, is not a monolothic entity -- Loudoun County votes very differently from Arlington County, for instance) and by how much I'll tell you who wins the election. Only problem is, the Northern Virginia localities are usually the last to report. So, we could wait around a few hours, but, hey, what's the fun in that?
Until then, well, here are some places we should keep an eye on:
* Predominantly African-American precincts, especially in the Richmond-to-Norfolk corridor: Terry McAuliffe is affiliated with former President Bill Clinton, once famously called "the nation's first black president." Plus, Third District Congressman Bobby Scott -- who is black -- said he's voted for The Macker, as McAuliffe is called. Will that carry the day? Conventional wisdom has it that Creigh Deeds isn't particularly strong with black voters. How come? Probably because he's from an overwhelmingly white, rural area? But Deeds got an endorsement from Del. Donald McEachin -- a well-known African-American legislator from Richmond. And we're told he's deployed much, if not most, of his meager field staff to working black precincts along I-64. Bottom line: If McAuliffe wins big in black precincts, he might pull this out. If Deeds wins, by any margin, he'll likely win. As for the third candidate, Brian Moran? Well, most analysts think he's, well, third.
* Rural areas, but especially Southwest Virginia. Will Deeds really win these areas? Or has he devoted so much attention to winning in Northern Virginia that folks out here don't feel that much kinship with him anymore? We'll see. We do know that Moran has been virtually invisible in rural Virginia. Bottom line: If we see Deeds winning rural Virginia, well, that doesn't tell me much except that he's winning what he has to win, but that may not be enough. If we see McAuliffe winning, well, that's good news for him and bad news for Deeds.
* University cities. OK, let's admit it: This is a Democratic primary and even Virginia Democrats are going to have a center of gravity that is, well, left of center. A rural guy like Deeds isn't who most liberals who identify with; on the other hand, Virginia Democrats have traditionally learned to be practical about such things, and Deeds has tried to position himself as the natural heir to Mark Warner and Tim Kaine. Put another way: If Deeds can win over the most liberal Democrats, he might actually come from behind to win this. How can we tell? Well, normally I'd say look in places that have universities -- yes, that's a stereotype, but election returns don't lie. That would mean looking at places such as Charlottesville, Blacksburg and Harrisonburg, for instance. But Deeds represents Charlottesville in the state Senate, once represented part of Montgomery County in the House, and is close to Harrisonburg, so maybe those two are skewed. Let's look instead at . . . Fredericksburg and Williamsburg.
* Finally, Virginia Beach. Why? Well, why not? It's big. It's suburban. It's a key swing area in general elections. Until I see some numbers from Fairfax and Prince William, well, Virginia Beach is a darned good substitute.
Lest we give short shrift to the two House races in the Roanoke Valley, here's what I'll be looking for there:
* Republican primary in the 17th House District: I'll look at the two opposite ends of the district, Southwest Roanoke County and Botetourt County? Why? There are candidates from each. If Mike Wray wins in Southwest Roanoke County, well, that won't guarantee him victory -- but if he can't win there, well, it's hard to see how he'd win elsewhere. Ditto for Bill Cleaveland and Chris Head, both from Botetourt. Of course, there are only two Botetourt precincts in the districts, and only three in Southwest Roanoke County. Still, you gotta look somewhere. Also, Josh Johnson has targeted young professionals, so he's going to need a good vote in the city.
* Democratic primary for the 11th House District: The predominantly African-American precincts in Northwest Roanoke. The campaign pits two black candidates. If Martin Jeffrey, a former NAACP leader, can't beat incumbent Onzlee Ware there, it's hard to see him winning elsewhere. But if Jeffrey does, well, then things get interesting.
So, where do you think we should be looking?
