2009.11.03
Analysis: 3 reasons why Obama didn't matter
In the previous post, I looked at three ways President Obama hurt the Democrats in Virginia this year.
But, before we get too excited about proclaiming tonight’s results in Virginia as a repudiation of President Obama, let’s consider the following:
1. Deeds was a weak candidate to start with. He got a late start. He didn’t have statewide stature. The Democratic base wasn’t excited about him. His rural background made him a particularly hard sell in the suburbs where the bulk of the voters now live. He didn’t have a clear, compelling message about why people should vote for him. None of that had anything to do with Obama, and everything to do with why Deeds lost.
2. Deeds distanced himself from Obama, so it’s not like Deeds was running as an “Obama Democrat. (You can argue that two ways, though. The fact that Deeds didn’t embrace Obama very much can show that Obama didn’t have much to do with the results; you can also argue that his growing unfavorable rating is one reason why Deeds didn’t tie himself to the president.) But ultimately, we should keep in mind . . .
3. Virginia has a history of electing governors from a different party as the president. Since 1977, Virginians have ALWAYS elected a Republican governor when there’s a Democratic president, and ALWAYS elected a Democratic governor when there’s a Republican president.
To-wit:
1976: Democrat Jimmy Carter elected president; 1977: Republican John Dalton elected governor.
1980: Republican Ronald Reagan elected president; 1981: Democrat Charles Robb elected governor.
1984: Republican Ronald Reagan re-elected president; 1985: Democrat Gerald Baliles elected governor.
1988: Republican George Bush elected president; 1989: Democrat Doug Wilder elected governor.
1992: Democrat Bill Clinton elected president; 1993: Republican George Allen elected governor.
1996: Democrat Bill Clinton re-elected president; 1997: Republican Jim Gilmore elected governor.
2000: Republican George W. Bush elected president; 2001: Democrat Mark Warner elected governor.
2004: Republican George W. Bush re-elected president; 2005: Democrat Tim Kaine elected governor.
2008: Democrat Barack Obama elected president; 2009: Republican Bob McDonnell elected governor.
Why is this? Is this just a coincidence, or does Virginia have a long-running streak of contrariness against the federal government?
I’m not sure I can answer that. But what I do know is, if a president who’s popular in Virginia -- as Ronald Reagan surely was in the ‘80s -- couldn’t deliver the state for GOP candidates in what was certainly a more Republican state, then surely a not-quite-so-popular President Obama sure wasn’t about to deliver the state for Creigh Deeds this year.
Yes, yes, I know what the Obama people are saying -- that Deeds never tapped into the “surge” voters who helped Obama so much last year. And he didn’t. But was that even realistic in an off-off-year?
Coming next: How rare are sweeps in Virginia?
OTHER ELECTION ANALYSIS:
* Analysis: The most expensive governor's race ever
* Analysis: Where we'll be looking tonight
* Analysis: How many House seats will change hands tonight?
* Analysis: The biggest winning margin since . . .
* Analysis: The polls close; here's what's coming . . .
* Analysis: The saddest sight I've seen in politics
* Analysis: The first precinct reports in
* Analysis: An early return from Henrico County
* Analysis: A closer look at McDonnell's lead
* Analysis: McDonnell winning places that Democrats did four years ago
* Analysis: Henry County flips to McDonnell
* Analysis: Deeds running weaker in Northern Virginia
* Analysis: How Deeds did it -- a counter-factual look at McDonnell's victory
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama hurt Deeds
We have complete results here.
