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Analysis: 3 reasons why Obama hurt Deeds

The chattering classes in Washington will be abuzz tonight and in the days ahead: What does the Democratic defeat in Virginia say about President Obama? Last year, he carried Virginia, the first Democrat to win the state in a presidential race in 44 years. Now, the Democratic candidate for governor is getting thumped like a yard sale drum. Is this a referendum on the president?

Well, why let the pundits in Washington have all the fun?

Here are three reasons why tonight’s results should be read as a reflection on the president:

* 1. Obama’s policies have helped energize Republicans. This seems pretty obvious.
* 2. Obama couldn’t get Democrats excited about Deeds, so clearly the guy doesn’t have any coattails. This is more problematic, and I guess I really don’t believe it.
First of all, you can’t turn on enthusiasm the way you turn on a faucet. Voters need to get excited over time about a particular candidate; I’ve never seen any outside politician come in and single-handedly rescue a failing campaign.
Secondly, Deeds distanced himself from Obama, declining to call himself an “Obama Democrat” and making noises that he didn’t care for some parts of the president’s health care plan. In response, anonymous White House staffers were conveniently quoted in The Washington Post distancing themselves from Deeds -- saying that Deeds was a weak candidate who ran a poor campaign and should have embraced the president. I’ll agree with two of those three. I’m not sure embracing Obama would have helped Deeds much, because . . .
* 3. Democrats seem disspirited all around. In Virginia, and nationally. So I’m not sure the problem was Deeds-specific. It’s almost as if Democrats -- who last year had such fervor and enthusiasm -- have worn themselves out.

So, should the Deeds drubbing tonight be read as a political indictment of the president’s policies?

Coming next: Three reasons why Obama didn’t matter at all.

-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor

OTHER ELECTION ANALYSIS:
* Analysis: The most expensive governor's race ever
* Analysis: Where we'll be looking tonight
* Analysis: How many House seats will change hands tonight?
* Analysis: The biggest winning margin since . . .
* Analysis: The polls close; here's what's coming . . .
* Analysis: The saddest sight I've seen in politics
* Analysis: The first precinct reports in
* Analysis: An early return from Henrico County
* Analysis: A closer look at McDonnell's lead
* Analysis: McDonnell winning places that Democrats did four years ago
* Analysis: Henry County flips to McDonnell
* Analysis: Deeds running weaker in Northern Virginia
* Analysis: How Deeds did it -- a counter-factual look at McDonnell's victory

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