www.roanoke.com

Roanoke Sheriff Octavia Johnson has apparently won re-election by just 141 votes. She took only 42.4 percent of the vote, but it was a three-way race, with Democrat Frank Garrett coming up short at 41.7 percent and independent Brian Keenum polling 15.78 percent.

Johnson -- an African-American, and a Republican -- ran strongest in the city's predominantly black precincts of Northwest Roanoke. For instance, she took 76 percent of the vote in the Melrose precinct, nearly 72 percent in Villa Heights, 68 percent in Eureka Park.

But she ran much weaker than other Republican candidates in the southern part of the city. For instance, Bob McDonnell took 63 percent of the vote in South Roanoke No. 2, while Johnson only got 41 percent of the vote there.

So you could say that her lack of support among Republican voters in the southern part of the city almost cost her the election.

Or . . . you could say that she owes her re-election to South Roanoke and Raleigh Court. How so?

Well, it was a three-way race. And the third candidate -- Keenum, the independent -- ran strongest in South Roanoke and parts of Raleigh Court. There were eight precincts where he took more than 20 percent of the vote, and six of those were in the southern part of the city.

It's easy to imagine a Republican-leaning voter there who didn't feel good about voting for Johnson, whose tenure has been marked by some controversy, most notably the training incident where her own officers were stationed downrange during a live firing exercise. It's also easy to envision those same voters not being willing to vote for a Democrat -- yet here was a third option, a vote for an independent.

Would Garrett have beaten Johnson in a straight-up, two-way race? We'll never know.

But this reminds me of the 1994 Senate race, where some Republicans couldn't stomach the thought of voting for Oliver North, but they sure weren't going to vote for Democrat Charles Robb, either. Instead, they could park their vote with Republican-turned-independent Marshall Coleman. If you look back at those returns, it was precincts such as South Roanoke and Raleigh Court where Coleman did best.

-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor

OTHER ELECTION ANALYSIS:
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* Analysis: The polls close; here's what's coming . . .
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* Analysis: The first precinct reports in
* Analysis: An early return from Henrico County
* Analysis: A closer look at McDonnell's lead
* Analysis: McDonnell winning places that Democrats did four years ago
* Analysis: Henry County flips to McDonnell
* Analysis: Deeds running weaker in Northern Virginia
* Analysis: How Deeds did it -- a counter-factual look at McDonnell's victory
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama hurt Deeds
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama didn't matter
* Analysis: Are sweeps common or rare in Virginia?
* Analysis: Republicans take back the suburbs
* Analysis: Are primary winners destined to be November losers?
* Analysis: McDonnell may win biggest Republican victory ever
* Analysis: Should the Democrats blame their defeat on . . . Terry McAuliffe?
* Analysis: Did the Republicans win this race four years ago?
* Analysis: Should the Democrats blame . . . Phil Puckett?
* Analysis: Why didn't the thesis sink McDonnell?
* Analysis: Is winning re-election a bad career move?
* Analysis: Let the 2013 governor's race begin!
* Analysis: Kiss rural candidates goodbye
* Analysis: Sizing up Bill Cleaveland's win for the House of Delegates
* Analysis: Is Boucher in trouble next year?
* Analysis: McDonnell now leads in Fairfax County, and why this is important
* Analysis: An historic number of House incumbents lose
* Analysis: What Republicans should worry about most

We have complete results here.