2009.11.03
Analysis: Did the Republicans win this race four years ago?
The seeds of tonight’s Republican victory -- and Democratic defeat -- were planted four years ago, when Tim Kaine won the governorship, but could not pull in either of his two Democratic ticketmates.
That meant Democrats had no heir apparent for this year’s governor’s race.
Virginians have consistently shown a preference to elect governors with previous statewide experience. Let’s date the modern era in Virginia politics as beginning in 1969 -- when the state elected its first Republican governor since Reconstruction. Since then, we’ve had 10 gubernatorial elections. In only three of those have Virginians elected a candidate who had not previously served as lieutenant governor or attorney general -- Linwood Holton in 1969, George Allen in 1993 and Mark Warner in 2001.
However, both Holton and Warner had run statewide before -- Holton for governor in 1965, and Warner for Senate in 1996, so both arguably had statewide stature. Only Allen -- who previously had been in Congress -- did not.
So one could argue -- and I think I will -- that Democrats really lost this race four years ago when Bob McDonnell beat Creigh Deeds by 360 votes for attorney general.
McDonnell then had four years to prove himself on the statewide stage,while Deeds did not.
What if voters had known about McDonnell’s master’s thesis back in 2005? Would that have changed enough votes for Deeds to win? Perhaps so. That was more of a Democratic year, and voters don’t pay as much attention to the lower-ballot races so a little information might have gone a long way. As things turned out, McDonnell won then partly because Deeds underperformed among African-American voters, and McDonnell overperformed in his home in Hampton Roads.
Suppose Deeds had won that race. Instead of McDonnell being the Republican nominee this year, the GOP nominee almost certainly would have been Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling. How would a race between Bolling -- one of the most boring people I’ve ever seen elected to statewide office -- and Deeds -- seasoned by four years in office -- have gone?
Democrats can only wonder.
The problem now for Democrats is this: By losing all three statewide offices tonight, did they just lose the governor’s race in 2013, as well?
That’s a question I’ll explore later in the evening, so stay tuned.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
OTHER ELECTION ANALYSIS:
* Analysis: The most expensive governor's race ever
* Analysis: Where we'll be looking tonight
* Analysis: How many House seats will change hands tonight?
* Analysis: The biggest winning margin since . . .
* Analysis: The polls close; here's what's coming . . .
* Analysis: The saddest sight I've seen in politics
* Analysis: The first precinct reports in
* Analysis: An early return from Henrico County
* Analysis: A closer look at McDonnell's lead
* Analysis: McDonnell winning places that Democrats did four years ago
* Analysis: Henry County flips to McDonnell
* Analysis: Deeds running weaker in Northern Virginia
* Analysis: How Deeds did it -- a counter-factual look at McDonnell's victory
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama hurt Deeds
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama didn't matter
* Analysis: Are sweeps common or rare in Virginia?
* Analysis: Republicans take back the suburbs
* Analysis: Are primary winners destined to be November losers?
* Analysis: McDonnell may win biggest Republican victory ever
* Analysis: Should the Democrats blame their defeat on . . . Terry McAuliffe?
We have complete results here.
