2009.11.03
Analysis: How many House seats will change hands tonight?
Virginia’s not only electing a governor today, we’re electing all 100 members of the House of Delegates. Republicans now control the House, but Democrats entered this year with brave talk that they might be able to take the chamber back. Will they? How many incumbents typically lose, anyway?
We’ll be keeping an eye on the House races in Western Virginia tonight. But until we get some results, well, how about some historical trends?
Here are some (and we’re indebted to David Poole of the Virginia Public Access Project, a nonpartisan tracker of money in Virginia politics, for the research):
* How rare is it for House incumbents to lose a general election? House incumbents running for in a general election are one of the surest bets in politics. VPAP’s records go back to 1995 - Here is number of incumbents defeated:
1995 - 2 (Howard Copeland lost to Thelma Drake; Barnes Kidd lost to John Tate)
1997 - 2 (Shirley Cooper lost to Jo Ann Davis; George Lovelace lost to Jeanemarie Devolites)
1999 - 2 (Glenn Croshaw lost to Terrie Suit; Gladys Keating lost to Tom Bolvin)
2001 - 4 Redistricting (Billy Robinson lost to Winsome Sears; Jack Rust lost to Chap Petersen; Jim Shuler lost to Dave Nutter; John Tate lost to Bill Carrico)
2003 - 1 (Tom Bolvin lost to Mark Sickles)
2005 - 3 (Dick Black lost to David Poisson; Bradley Marrs lost to Katherine Waddell; Bennie Keister lost to Anne Crockett-Stark)
2007 - 2 (Katherine Waddell lost to Manoli Loupassi; John Welch lost to Bob Mathieson)
In the last seven cycles, the percentage of House incumbents winning general elections has ranged from a low of 95 % to a high of 89.9 %
One feature of this year's House races . . .
* Democrats were forced to play defense.
In the spring, Democrats were talking about picking up enough seats to take control of the House. By October, however, the party had to deploy most of its resources to hang onto its 45 seat minority. Here is a look at how Democratic, party and caucus committees targeted their large, last-minute expenditures in the final 13 days before the Election (after October 21):
Offense: $359,849
Defense: $963,951
* Democrats gained 11 seats during the decade; how many will they give back?
The GOP-engineering redistricting plan in 2001 consolidated GOP control of the House of Delegates. The November 2001 election left the House looking like this:
Republican - 64
Democrats - 34
Independents - 2
During the decade, Democrats gained back 11 seats.
The 2009 split was:
Republicans - 53
Democrats - 45
Independents - 2
* Most expensive House elections - ever.
The 2009 House elections will be the most expensive ever. Through October 21, House candidates had spent $29.7 million, which puts them within easy reach of the $32.9 million spent in the 2007 cycle. We won’t know the final numbers until January. For more details, see this entry on the VPAP site.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
Coming next: What will the margin be tonight?
OTHER ELECTION ANALYSIS:
* Analysis: The most expensive governor's race ever
* Analysis: Where we'll be looking tonight
Complete election coverage: Posts from precincts around the valley, candidate profiles, results and more.
