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Breaking news from The Roanoke Times

Analysis: Is Boucher in trouble next year?

The great thing about Virginia (if you’re a political junkie) is that there’s ALWAYS an election next year.
In 2010, the entire U.S. House of Representatives will be up for re-election. Here in Western Virginia, all eyes have been on the 5th District in Southside. Last year, Republican Virgil Goode was upset by Democrat Tom Perriello. Given the closeness of Perrielleo’s victory, and the conservative bent of that district, it’s a given that he’ll face stiff competition next year.

But I’ve read a surprisingly number stories out of Washington that also list Rep. Rick Boucher, D-Abingdon, as a congressmen who might be in trouble next year.

I don’t know if that’s just superficial speculation -- he’s a Democrat who represents a rural district, the classic profile of a Democrat who might go down if there’s a Republican comeback -- or if there’s something deeper going on.

We do know that Republicans have spent a nice chunk of change trying to soften Boucher up. And
Republicans are chortling tonight because they've knocked off a sitting delegate in the coalfields -- Republican Will Morefield has ousted Democrat Dan Bowling from Tazewell County. Republicans in Washington are already trumpeting that as evidence that Boucher could be knocked off, as well.

Don't know about that. We're seeing tonight that just because one party is up one year doesn't mean it'll be up the next year.

But, here's the worrisome thing for Boucher: There’s talk that Del. Terry Kilgore of Scott County -- brother of the former attorney general -- might run. If so, that would constitute the strongest challenge Boucher will have faced since his first re-election campaign in 1984 against Jeff Stafford of Giles County.

So, keep your eyes on Kilgore.

-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor

OTHER ELECTION ANALYSIS:
* Analysis: The most expensive governor's race ever
* Analysis: Where we'll be looking tonight
* Analysis: How many House seats will change hands tonight?
* Analysis: The biggest winning margin since . . .
* Analysis: The polls close; here's what's coming . . .
* Analysis: The saddest sight I've seen in politics
* Analysis: The first precinct reports in
* Analysis: An early return from Henrico County
* Analysis: A closer look at McDonnell's lead
* Analysis: McDonnell winning places that Democrats did four years ago
* Analysis: Henry County flips to McDonnell
* Analysis: Deeds running weaker in Northern Virginia
* Analysis: How Deeds did it -- a counter-factual look at McDonnell's victory
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama hurt Deeds
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama didn't matter
* Analysis: Are sweeps common or rare in Virginia?
* Analysis: Republicans take back the suburbs
* Analysis: Are primary winners destined to be November losers?
* Analysis: McDonnell may win biggest Republican victory ever
* Analysis: Should the Democrats blame their defeat on . . . Terry McAuliffe?
* Analysis: Did the Republicans win this race four years ago?
* Analysis: Should the Democrats blame . . . Phil Puckett?
* Analysis: Why didn't the thesis sink McDonnell?
* Analysis: Is winning re-election a bad career move?
* Analysis: Let the 2013 governor's race begin!
* Analysis: Kiss rural candidates goodbye
* Analysis: Sizing up Bill Cleaveland's win for the House of Delegates

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