2009.11.03
Analysis: Should the Democrats blame their defeat on . . . Terry McAuliffe?
Democrats can blame tonight’s defeat on lots of things. Maybe Creigh Deeds was a weak candidate who ran a poor race. Maybe the president was too unpopular. Maybe Deeds should have embraced the president more. Or maybe . . . it’s Terry McAuliffe’s fault.
Here’s something to think about:
The Democratic nomination for governor had been a two-way contest between Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran -- with Moran as the favorite -- until Terry McAuliffe and all his money got in. That scrambled the dynamics; Moran went after McAuliffe (and there was a lot to go after.). Then, as often happens in a three-way race, the top two contenders knock themselves out and the third guy slips through.
So what if McAuliffe hadn’t run? Moran would have likely won the primary. Would he have been a stronger candidate against McDonnell? Would have have run stronger in Northern Virginia? Would he have excited the Democratic base more?
Or would he have fallen victim to many of the same problems that Deeds did?
I tend to think yes, because, a strong argument can be made that Republicans really won this race four years ago. I’ll deal with that in the next post, coming soon.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
OTHER ELECTION ANALYSIS:
* Analysis: The most expensive governor's race ever
* Analysis: Where we'll be looking tonight
* Analysis: How many House seats will change hands tonight?
* Analysis: The biggest winning margin since . . .
* Analysis: The polls close; here's what's coming . . .
* Analysis: The saddest sight I've seen in politics
* Analysis: The first precinct reports in
* Analysis: An early return from Henrico County
* Analysis: A closer look at McDonnell's lead
* Analysis: McDonnell winning places that Democrats did four years ago
* Analysis: Henry County flips to McDonnell
* Analysis: Deeds running weaker in Northern Virginia
* Analysis: How Deeds did it -- a counter-factual look at McDonnell's victory
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama hurt Deeds
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama didn't matter
* Analysis: Are sweeps common or rare in Virginia?
* Analysis: Republicans take back the suburbs
* Analysis: Are primary winners destined to be November losers?
* Analysis: McDonnell may win biggest Republican victory ever
We have complete results here.
