2009.11.03
Analysis: What should Republicans worry about most?
What? Why should Republicans worry? They just won.
Won big, in fact.
Historically big.
But political parties should always worry. Politics follows the old principle: What goes up, must come down. Republicans were down. Now they’re up. Someday -- we don’t know when -- they’ll come back down again.
Their goal now is to delay that day for as long as possible.
What would cause Republicans to stumble? Here are some things they might want to worry about:
* First, McDonnell has to do a good job as governor. Well, we all know that. And I’m sure Republicans will say this will be a cinch. Still, office-holders can get blamed for lots of things beyond their control. The economy, for instance. And Northern Virginia’s transportation problems often seem beyond any solution other than gobs of money that the state doesn’t have. McDonnell has a transportation plan, to be sure, but critics say it’s based on fiscal fairy dust -- revenues, for instance, from off-shore drilling that may not happen for years, if at all. And if Northern Virginians aren’t happy, well, I won’t say nobody’s happy. But you don’t want to make the state’s biggest voting bloc unhappy.
* Will Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling excite voters? He’s now the heir apparent. But he’s not exactly Mr. Charisma. Personally, I think charisma is overrated. But we’ve seen tonight what happens when a party isn’t excited about its nominee. In terns of having a personal or political narrative, Bolling would be the least interesting nominee for governor since, well, I’d venture Albertis Harrison in 1961. Now, being interesting isn’t always a good thing. Republican Marshall Coleman was terribly interesting -- and that’s one reason he lost, not once but twice. Still, just saying, will Republicans be as excited about Bolling in four years as they were about McDonnell this year?
* Will Cuccinelli overreach? He’s easily the most conservative candidate to win statewide office, and he promises to be an activist attorney general -- suing the federal government when he believes it’s encroaching on “state’s rights.” The Washington Post said he’d be “an embarrassment” to the state. I’m sure Republicans don’t agree but, well, what if Cuccinelli does go too far?
* Overconfidence. Pride is the deadliest of the seven sins, in theology as well as in politics. Republicans were hungry this year, as parties out of power usually are. But now that they’re back in power, well, someday it will be their turn to be complacent.
* The special election to fill Cuccinelli's seat. Democrats now hold a bare majority in the state Senate -- 21-19. But now one of those 19 just got elected to higher office, so that means there'll be a special election to fill Cuccinelli's seat. His Northern Virginia district has, in the past, trended Democratic at times. So it's possible Democrats could pick that up. If so, they'll surely trumpet that as a sign of a nascent comeback. Of course, they could lose it, too. In that case, well, the Democratic majority relies on an aging member (Charles Colgan). And the last Republican governor -- Jim Gilmore -- proved quite skillful in finding ways to pick off Democrats in districts that could be flipped to Republicans. His favorite method: Find some Democrat near retirement age whom he could Dappoint to some well-paid but not especially important office and, bingo, you have a vacant seat that Republicans could pick up.
I bet Republican operatives are at this moment already looking over the list of state senators to figure out who they most entice into the administration.
So right now, it's the Democrats who have the most immediate worries; the Republicans are more long-term.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
OTHER ELECTION ANALYSIS:
* Analysis: The most expensive governor's race ever
* Analysis: Where we'll be looking tonight
* Analysis: How many House seats will change hands tonight?
* Analysis: The biggest winning margin since . . .
* Analysis: The polls close; here's what's coming . . .
* Analysis: The saddest sight I've seen in politics
* Analysis: The first precinct reports in
* Analysis: An early return from Henrico County
* Analysis: A closer look at McDonnell's lead
* Analysis: McDonnell winning places that Democrats did four years ago
* Analysis: Henry County flips to McDonnell
* Analysis: Deeds running weaker in Northern Virginia
* Analysis: How Deeds did it -- a counter-factual look at McDonnell's victory
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama hurt Deeds
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama didn't matter
* Analysis: Are sweeps common or rare in Virginia?
* Analysis: Republicans take back the suburbs
* Analysis: Are primary winners destined to be November losers?
* Analysis: McDonnell may win biggest Republican victory ever
* Analysis: Should the Democrats blame their defeat on . . . Terry McAuliffe?
* Analysis: Did the Republicans win this race four years ago?
* Analysis: Should the Democrats blame . . . Phil Puckett?
* Analysis: Why didn't the thesis sink McDonnell?
* Analysis: Is winning re-election a bad career move?
* Analysis: Let the 2013 governor's race begin!
* Analysis: Kiss rural candidates goodbye
* Analysis: Sizing up Bill Cleaveland's win for the House of Delegates
* Analysis: Is Boucher in trouble next year?
* Analysis: McDonnell now leads in Fairfax County, and why this is important
* Analysis: An historic number of House incumbents lose
We have complete results here.
