2009.11.03
Analysis: Where we'll be looking tonight
The polls close at 7 p.m. and we’ll start getting some numbers about 7:30, I’d expect. All votes may be equal but . . .we do pay more attention to some than others. On election night, political watchers like myself are looking for trends. And the best place to find some trends are in localities that have flip-flopped back and forth over the years. Here are some good ones to keep an eye on:
* Loudoun County and Prince William County. If you could only look at the returns from two places, look at these. These counties on the outer edge of the Northern Virginia suburbs once were reliably Republican. Tim Kaine won the governorship four years ago partly because he flipped them Democratic. Jim Webb won them by similiarly narrow margins in 2006, and then Barack Obama won them by bigger margins last year. Will they stay Democratic this year? If yes, that’s good news for Deeds. If not, good news for McDonnell.
* Henrico County. This surburban county outside Richmond is another one that has gone from Republican to Democratic in the past few elections.
* Fairfax County. Democrats tend to win this Northern Virginia suburb even in losing years (John Kerry, for instance, carried it in 2004.) So it’s not enough for Democrats to win here, they have to win big to offset losses elsewhere in the state. But Republicans have high hopes that McDonnell, who grew up here, can carry Fairfax just as Jim Gilmore did against Don Beyer back in 1997 -- the last time the Republicans won the governorship.
* The Williamson Road and Raleigh Court precincts in Roanoke. They are two very different neighborhoods -- Willliamson Road is older, more blue-collar, Raleigh Court younger and more affluent. Both both are good belwethers. Kaine swept both neighborhoods four years ago. Obama took four of five Raleigh Court precincts last fall and three of the six Williamson Road precincts on his way toward carrying Virginia. But both areas are quite capable of voting for Republicans, such as George W. Bush in both his runs for president. So I’ll be watching those for an early sign of how things are going to go.
By the way, those might also be good places to watch to get some early indications on the city’s three-way race for sheriff.
Coming next: What are the chances of a House incumbent losing tonight?
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
OTHER ELECTION ANALYSIS:
* Analysis: The most expensive governor's race ever.
Complete election coverage: Posts from precincts around the valley, candidate profiles, results and more.
