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Bob McDonnell’s campaign this year was a textbook example of how to run a campaign. Everything went right, except for one thing -- the self-inflicted revelation of his master’s thesis in which he working women as “detrimental to the family” and argued that government policy should favor married couples over “cohabitators, homosexuals or fornicators.”
When the news broke about that, Democrats latched onto it as a gift from the political gods -- Bob McDonnell’s “macaca moment.” Here, at last, was a way to paint McDonnell as a right-wing extremist.
And, for about a week or so, Deeds did gain ground.
But then -- nothing happened, and McDonnell began pulling away again.
So what happened? Why didn’t the thesis sink McDonnell?
I have two theories.
One is that, well, a lot of voters may actually have agreed with the thesis. If anything, the thesis simply solidified McDonnell’s already-solid basis with social conservatives.
The second theory relates to the previous post -- about how Republicans gained an advantage this year by winning the down-ballot races four years ago. It looks for the polls that the thesis did have temporary effect of freezing McDonnell’s polling numbers in place. So I suspect some voters did stop to think about the thesis. But then -- they could evaluate that information against what they’d observed of McDonnell’s conduct in the attorney general’s office.
To hear Democrats describe the thesis, it revealed McDonnell has, well, a crazy, religious zealot intent on cramming his religion down everyone’s throat. But did McDonnell do that as attorney general? Umm, if so, we sure missed it. In fact, the Deeds campaign was remarkable because I don’t recall criticizing McDonnell that much for what he’d done in office. Surely he’d done something worthy of criticism? If so, the Deeds campaign sure didn’t talk about it -- and at that point, the thesis issue probably blew away.
Also of note: McDonnell had a very effective response to it. Does he believe women should be kept barefoot and pregnant, as critics seem to say? Umm, hard to make that case when he’s pointing to his daughter who served in Iraq.
Four years ago, the thesis might have made the difference. This year, it sure didn’t.

Coming next: Let the 2013 governor’s race begin, but first . .

-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor

OTHER ELECTION ANALYSIS:
* Analysis: The most expensive governor's race ever
* Analysis: Where we'll be looking tonight
* Analysis: How many House seats will change hands tonight?
* Analysis: The biggest winning margin since . . .
* Analysis: The polls close; here's what's coming . . .
* Analysis: The saddest sight I've seen in politics
* Analysis: The first precinct reports in
* Analysis: An early return from Henrico County
* Analysis: A closer look at McDonnell's lead
* Analysis: McDonnell winning places that Democrats did four years ago
* Analysis: Henry County flips to McDonnell
* Analysis: Deeds running weaker in Northern Virginia
* Analysis: How Deeds did it -- a counter-factual look at McDonnell's victory
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama hurt Deeds
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama didn't matter
* Analysis: Are sweeps common or rare in Virginia?
* Analysis: Republicans take back the suburbs
* Analysis: Are primary winners destined to be November losers?
* Analysis: McDonnell may win biggest Republican victory ever
* Analysis: Should the Democrats blame their defeat on . . . Terry McAuliffe?
* Analysis: Did the Republicans win this race four years ago?
* Should the Democrats blame . . . Phil Puckett?

We have complete results here.