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Governor Tim Kaine, a big Obama supporter from early on, just put out a statement calling his man’s victory tonight “decisive.”
I’d have to agree. It’s not just the numbers -- 63% to 35% certainly counts as a landslide in anybody’s book. But look at the breadth of Obama’s victory. Clinton took Southwest Virginia, he won pretty much everyplace else.
The dividing line between Obama country and Clinton country runs runs pretty much right through our area. She Obama took Henry County; Clinton took Patrick. She took Bedford and Franklin; he’s taking Floyd. She’s taking Roanoke County and Salem; no word yet on Roanoke city and Botetourt. Obama took Montgomery County and Radford; Clinton took everything west of that.
Outside of Southwest Virginia, the only places I can find where Clinton beat Obama in Virginia are Warren County and Page County, up in the Shenandoah Valley. Oh yes, Colonial Heights.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

I just heard from Larry Sabato, the most widely-quoted authority on Virginia politics. I'll share his comments in full:

This blowout for Obama is very bad news for Clinton. In the South, at least, this is Obama’s best showing with white voters, and actually it’s his largest share of the black vote Obama has received anywhere. The elements were all there for Obama and everyone saw it ahead of time: upscale whites in NoVa and Hampton Roads, African-Americans that were at least 30% of today’s turnout, and massive margins in the many college towns across VA (they matter in a D primary).

University of Virginia

-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

I don’t mean to speak ill of another news organization, but the totals on CNN are running well behind those posted on the State Board of Elections website. Can’t Wolf Blitzer check that? CNN has 36% of the vote in, and McCain and Huckabee tied. The state board has nearly 49% of the vote in, and McCain with a slight lead. Still nothing from Chesterfield County (outside Richmond) and Prince William County (Northern Virginia), two big localities. But a lot of other Northern Virginia precincts are coming in, and those are boosting McCain’s numbers, but Huckabee is still hanging in strong.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

Earlier today, one of my Republican confidantes advised me to keep an eye on strong GOP suburbs such as Chesapeake, Chesterfield and Loudoun to see whether there’s any conservative backlash against McCain. Well, the last two haven’t reported a single vote yet, but Chesapeake is nearly done and Hucakbee is leading there by 59 votes. I think it’s clear from this that McCain hasn’t made the sale yet to a lot of conservative voters. In Hanover Couonty, outside Richmond, another Republican bastion, he’s winning, but not by an impressive margin. And we’ve just gotten the first numbers from Roanoke County: Huckabee, so far.
So what do you think?
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

Obama is beating Clinton in 10 of the state’s 11 congressional district. Only the 9th District, in Southwest Virginia (from Roanoke County west to the Cumberland Gap) is she winning. Some of the margins there aren’t pretty at all; landslide numbers for the former first lady down in the coalfields.
Earlier, I said look at Washington County-- and she’s winning there 72% to 26%. But I also said look at Henry County, and Obama is winning there by 60% to 40%, and that’s the trend that carries across the rest of the state at the moment. I’ll be curious where that geographical dividing line falls between the two. Still nothing from Roanoke or Roanoke County or Montgomery County, but Obama has taken the first of four precincts in Radford.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

The Republican side is getting clearer now, as we start to hear from some of the big suburban localities. McCain is winning the first precincts to report in places such as Hanover County (outside Richmond), and Stafford and Spotsylvania counties on the edge of Northern Virginia -- though they’re closer than he’d like them to be. Alexandria just started to report, and it’s going strong for McCain -- 73% to 15%.
Still nothing from other localities in Northern Virginia, or Hampton Roads, where you’d think McCain’s military credentials would help him a lot. My hunch is he’ll win, but the result will be closer than he’d like. The CNN totals still have Huckabee ahead, but their totals are running behind the State of Elections. There, McCain has just pulled ahead.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

This Republican race is a real barn-burner. At the moment, Huckabee is ahead with just under 7% of the vote counted -- Huckabee 48%, McCain 45%.
But keep in mind -- the first returns are disportionately rural. Huckabee is winning strong through Southwest, up the Shenandoah Valley and over into Southside. For instance, Bedford County has 38 percent of the vote in, and he’s winning there by 68% to 27%. As always, let’s wait until we hear from the suburbs, especially Northern Virginia. We just got in one precinct from Fauquier, on the edges of Northern Virginia. It’s gone for McCain, by 159-63. That’s more of what McCain wants to hear.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

Well, that was fast. The polls close at 7 pm.; by 7:01 p.m, both CNN and AP have called it for Obama, based on exit polling. No actual numbers yet.
I see where CNN says McCain and Huckabee are too close to call. I’m old-fashioned. I think I’ll wait for actual numbers.
So what do you make it of all?
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

You, too, can play election analyst tonight. Some broad trends are already evident this year:
* On the Democratic side, Barack Obama does best with upscale whites -- and African-Americans; Hillary Clinton does best with lower-income whites, and Latinos (and, of course, women).
* On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee does best with evangelicals; John McCain with independents.
That means we can zero in on five places to watch as the Virginia results come in tonight.
1. Traditionally Republican suburbs such as Loudoun County, Prince William County, Chesterfield County,and, yes, Roanoke County. These aren’t places you’d expect Huckabee to do well. If he does, that’s a sign of further conservative discontent with front-runner John McCain.
2. The U.S. 220 corridor -- Franklin County, Henry County, Martinsville. This is always one of my bellwethers. Demographically, this should be Clinton country. But some key political figures here have endorsed Obama, such as the mayor of Martinsville and House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong of Henry County.
3. Washington County. And, to some extent, Southwest Virginia in general. Bill Clinton made appearances in Abingdon, Blacksburg and, of course, Roanoke. But Southwest Virginia’s congressman, Rich Boucher, endorsed Obama. He’s from Abingdon. Which way will his hometown swing? (And ditto for the Republicans: If Huckabee has a prayer, he’s got to win big in Southwest Virginia.)
4. Roanoke. As I said in my first posting, this is a good indicator. The city has a diverse population. I’ll be looking to see how the Williamson Road precincts go -- they’re older, less affluent, so should be ripe for Clinton -- and the Raleigh Court area goes -- more affluent, more typical of an Obama voter. Any variation from that pattern should signal a trend.
5. Northern Virginia. ‘nuff said. But those precincts are so big, they always report last. Remember how the Allen-Webb race went into the wee hours until the absentees from Arlington were counted? But any early returns from some of the smaller localities, such as Manassas, or Falls Church, could be useful canaries in the coalmine.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor

They’re calling today’s vote “the Potomac primary” but two candidates will be looking tonight for big help from a part of Virginia that’s a long way away from that famous waterway. Specifically, both Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side and Mike Huckabee on the Republican side are counting on support from Southwest Virginia.
Clinton, in particular, has worked the region hard -- Bill Clinton made appearances in Abingdon, Blacksburg and Roanoke; Hillary herself tried to visit Roanoke, but was driven away by high winds. Who would ever have guessed that no only does Virginia matter, but Southwest Virginia is in the thick of things?
Meanwhile, Barack Obama is counting on a big vote out of Northern Virginia, but the DC suburbs always report last, so there are a number of belwethers I’ll be looking for earlier in the evening. Interestingly, Roanoke is one of them.
The polls close at 7 p.m. and we’ll be posting election results and analysis here throughout the evening, based on my nearly two decades of being in and around political coverage in the Old Dominion. Got a comment or question? Post it, and we’ll try to make sense of the results tonight together.
-- Dwayne Yancey, Senior Editor