We're just waiting on three precincts for Roanoke to be complete -- Peters Creek (which should be heavy for Obama), Raleigh Court No. 2 (which could go either way), and the absentees, which may not get counted tonight, we hear.
So far, the numbers look like this:
Obama 20,267
McCain 13,071
That's a 7,196-vote margin so far for Obama. Kerry took Roanoke with a 2,201 margin four years ago.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
This isn't so much analysis as jsut straight reporting: Earlier, I had posted that everything of Roanoke was Republican red.
The latest returns show two exceptions: Radford and maybe Montgomery County.
Obama has won Radford 29,30 to 2,418. All precincts are complete there.
With 87 percent of the Montgomery County vote in, Obama leads there 15,475 to 15,320.
The last time Democrats won those localities in a presidential race? Bill Clinton carried them in 1996.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
We're finally starting to get some serious numbers in from Northern Virginia. If you've been following my analysis this evening, you know that a) Obama is not getting the numbers he needs from downstate so the question becomes b) can he get them from upstate?
We'll see.
Here's what we can say:
The two exurban counties that McCain needs to hold -- and Obama needs to flip -- are both close.
* Prince William County -- 8 percent of the vote reporting. Obama has 51 percent.
* Loudoun County -- 21 percent of the vote reporting. 50-50.
In the "inner suburbs," Obama is winning big, as expected. And he's running ahead of the Kerry numbers. But will those be enough to offset losses downstate? Somebody with a bigger calculator than mine can do that math.
But here's what we know:
* Fairfax County -- 11 percent of the vote reporting. Obama is running 4 points ahead of the Kerry numbers. He's got 57 percent, Kerry had 53 percent.
* Arlington -- 10 percent of the vote reporting. Obama running slightly behind the Kerry numbers, actually. Obama's getting 67 percent, Kerry had 68 percent.
* Alexandria -- 93 percent of the vote in. Obama running 10 points ahead of Kerry. Obama getting 56 percent of the vote, Kerry got 46 percent.
Also of note: Obama continues to lead in Henrico County, in the Richmond suburbs. That's a Bush county. But we don't have any new numbers from Virginia Beach, where McCain was leading in early returns.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
The first returns from Virginia Beach are trickling in and they show McCain with a lead there. That's good for McCain, bad for Obama. Virginia Beach is another one of those swing localities that makes the difference in the state.
The three recent races we have to hold things up against are Bush-Kerry in 2004, Kaine-Kilgore for governor in 2005, and Webb-Allen for Senate in 2006. Bush won the beach. Kaine won the beach. And both won their elections. Webb lost it, but only narrowly. He eked out his victory in Northern Virginia.
And, increasingly, that's where we'll be looking tonight.
Obama needed to cut his McCain's margins in Southwest Virginia. He didn't do it. McCain is winning counties in the coalfields that no Republican has won since the Nixon landslide over McGovern in 1972. Buchanan and Dickenson counties have stuck with Democrats in (almost) the worst of times. Not this year.
That's not to declare McCain the winner in Virginia yet. It just means Obama really has to perform in Northern Virginia.
So far, we don't have much to go on there.
Only 2 percent of the vote in Fairfax County is in, and, well 2 percent is still only 2 percent. So far, Obama is taking 58 percent of the vote in Fairfax -- that's better than the 53 percent John Kerry did. Somebody could do the math and compute whether, if that margin held, what that would mean in terms of raw numbers.
Likewise, we only have 4 percent of the vote from Alexandria. So far, only has 74 percent of the vote, better than Kerry's 67 percent. Again, anyone want to do some math. Would that margin make up the votes that Obama is losing in Southwest Virginia that Democrats usually get?
Quick, who was the last Democratic presidential candidate to lose Buchanan County down in the coalfields.
I just had to go to some musty old books from our library to figure it out: George McGovern, back in the Richard Nixon landslide of 1972.
With 72 percent of the vote in down in Buchanan, it looks like John McCain is going to pull a Nixon and carry the county. Right now, he leads 60 percent to 39 percent for Obama.
And that's pretty much the story west of Roanoke -- all McCain.
Now, we still have yet to hear from Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. But if Obama hopes to win Virginia, he's going to need to some mighty big numbers there, but he's not cutting the margins in Southwest Virginia the way he had hoped.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
All right, now we're finally getting some serious numbers. My early read on them is they look good for John McCain, not so good for Barack Obama -- but let's keep in mind that this is early, and we still haven't heard from Northern Virginia.
But here's what I see so far:
* I had pegged Henry County has one of the places to watch. Bush carried it in '04, Democrat Tim Kaine carried it for governor the next year. The first numbers in show McCain winning there.
* I had also called attention to the Williamson Road and Raleigh Court precincts in Roanoke. So far we've had from five of the 11 precincts in those two swing areas.
Bush won Williamson Road No. 1 and No. 5; Kaine took both of them. So far, it's a split: McCain took No. 1, Obama took No. 5.
Bush took Raleigh Court No. 2 and No. 4 and No. 5, while Kaine won all three of those. Likewise, another split. Obama wins Raleigh Court No. 2 and No. 5 and McCain has taken No. 4.
So Obama is running ahead of John Kerry's numbers, but behind Tim Kaine's performance.
That's probably not what he needs out of Roanoke.
Of course, we haven't heard from the black precincts yet, and we know they had a heavier-than-usual turnout.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
The big news of the night so far is that the State Board of Elections website appears to have frozen to a crawl, and that's the best (and maybe only) place to get numbers at the precinct level.
So we can tell you what counties and cities votes are coming from -- but not where in those localities, and that's what we really need for a serious analysis.
That said, here's what we do now: Most of the numbers that CNN is reporting -- which show McCain with a lead in Virginia -- are coming from rural localities in Western Virginia, where you'd expect a Republican to do well.
So far, I can't discern many real trends from looking at the numbers. Potentially the most significant numbers are from a handful of precincts that have trickled in from Henrico County, in Richmond's suburbs. That's one of the localities I had identified as one of my five places to watch tonight. Bush carried it in '04, but the early returns show Obama ahead there. However, I can't tell which precincts are in -- so maybe these are reliably Democratic precincts from Henrico, maybe they're not. Just can't tell.
So let's sit tight.
OK, we have some numbers. CNN reports that with 2 percent of the precincts reporting in Virginia, McCain leads Obama 34,359 to 30,056.
But, as Paul Harvey would say, here's the rest of the story:
A closer examination shows those numbers coming from a handful of predominatly Republican counties -- namely, Campbell and Chesterfield, with a little Lee County thrown in.
So I wouldn't read much into this one way or another.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
A group of troopers today relayed a single absentee ballot down the interstate to Roanoke -- from the state Board of Elections in Richmond -- in an attempt to get it to the Registrar's Office on time.
A Senior Trooper Chafin just delivered the ballot to the Roanoke Registrar's Office about 15 minutes ago -- which was about 15 minutes after the polls closed.
Roanoke's deputy registrar, Lavern Grigsby, told the trooper that she'd never dealt with such a situation, then signed for the FedEx package with the ballot enclosed.
A small crowd of people in the office immediately inquired: Whose name is on the ballot?
Grigsby chose not to open the package right away, and said she would have to consult with the state board on what to do with it.
-- Todd Jackson
As an election official shouted, "The polls are now closed" and shuttered the doors of Ruffner Middle School in Roanoke at 7 p.m., Democratic campaign volunteers shouted "Whoo-hoo!"
One of them was Nader Rasoul, brother of Sam Rasoul, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives for the 6th district.
Rasoul said he had been at the middle school since 7 a.m., and that the crush in the crowds was until about 1 p.m. The wait in line ranged from 3 hours to an hour until then, Rasoul said.
At 7 p.m., however, most at the polling station were volunteers.
"We thought we would get a rush at 5 p.m., but it didn't really turn out that way," Rasoul said.
-- Jorge Valencia
