Roanoke Valley Republicans gathered at the Holiday Inn in Southwest Roanoke County to celebrate party wins Tuesday night -- including that of Governor-Elect Bob McDonnell.
-- Video by Chris Zaluski
-- Photos by Kyle Green, Jared Soares and Eric Brady
Incumbent -- and House Majority Leader -- Del. Morgan Griffith joined Delegate-Elect Bill Cleaveland at the Holiday Inn in Southwest Roanoke County to celebrate their victories in Tuesday's election.
More on Election 2009 here: Stories, video, resources, results, full Election day coverage, endorsements, maps and more
-- Video by Chris Zaluski
Roanoke Sheriff Octavia Johnson has apparently won re-election by just 141 votes. She took only 42.4 percent of the vote, but it was a three-way race, with Democrat Frank Garrett coming up short at 41.7 percent and independent Brian Keenum polling 15.78 percent.
Johnson -- an African-American, and a Republican -- ran strongest in the city's predominantly black precincts of Northwest Roanoke. For instance, she took 76 percent of the vote in the Melrose precinct, nearly 72 percent in Villa Heights, 68 percent in Eureka Park.
But she ran much weaker than other Republican candidates in the southern part of the city. For instance, Bob McDonnell took 63 percent of the vote in South Roanoke No. 2, while Johnson only got 41 percent of the vote there.
So you could say that her lack of support among Republican voters in the southern part of the city almost cost her the election.
Or . . . you could say that she owes her re-election to South Roanoke and Raleigh Court. How so?
Well, it was a three-way race. And the third candidate -- Keenum, the independent -- ran strongest in South Roanoke and parts of Raleigh Court. There were eight precincts where he took more than 20 percent of the vote, and six of those were in the southern part of the city.
It's easy to imagine a Republican-leaning voter there who didn't feel good about voting for Johnson, whose tenure has been marked by some controversy, most notably the training incident where her own officers were stationed downrange during a live firing exercise. It's also easy to envision those same voters not being willing to vote for a Democrat -- yet here was a third option, a vote for an independent.
Would Garrett have beaten Johnson in a straight-up, two-way race? We'll never know.
But this reminds me of the 1994 Senate race, where some Republicans couldn't stomach the thought of voting for Oliver North, but they sure weren't going to vote for Democrat Charles Robb, either. Instead, they could park their vote with Republican-turned-independent Marshall Coleman. If you look back at those returns, it was precincts such as South Roanoke and Raleigh Court where Coleman did best.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
What? Why should Republicans worry? They just won.
Won big, in fact.
Historically big.
But political parties should always worry. Politics follows the old principle: What goes up, must come down. Republicans were down. Now they’re up. Someday -- we don’t know when -- they’ll come back down again.
Their goal now is to delay that day for as long as possible.
What would cause Republicans to stumble? Here are some things they might want to worry about:
* First, McDonnell has to do a good job as governor. Well, we all know that. And I’m sure Republicans will say this will be a cinch. Still, office-holders can get blamed for lots of things beyond their control. The economy, for instance. And Northern Virginia’s transportation problems often seem beyond any solution other than gobs of money that the state doesn’t have. McDonnell has a transportation plan, to be sure, but critics say it’s based on fiscal fairy dust -- revenues, for instance, from off-shore drilling that may not happen for years, if at all. And if Northern Virginians aren’t happy, well, I won’t say nobody’s happy. But you don’t want to make the state’s biggest voting bloc unhappy.
* Will Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling excite voters? He’s now the heir apparent. But he’s not exactly Mr. Charisma. Personally, I think charisma is overrated. But we’ve seen tonight what happens when a party isn’t excited about its nominee. In terns of having a personal or political narrative, Bolling would be the least interesting nominee for governor since, well, I’d venture Albertis Harrison in 1961. Now, being interesting isn’t always a good thing. Republican Marshall Coleman was terribly interesting -- and that’s one reason he lost, not once but twice. Still, just saying, will Republicans be as excited about Bolling in four years as they were about McDonnell this year?
* Will Cuccinelli overreach? He’s easily the most conservative candidate to win statewide office, and he promises to be an activist attorney general -- suing the federal government when he believes it’s encroaching on “state’s rights.” The Washington Post said he’d be “an embarrassment” to the state. I’m sure Republicans don’t agree but, well, what if Cuccinelli does go too far?
* Overconfidence. Pride is the deadliest of the seven sins, in theology as well as in politics. Republicans were hungry this year, as parties out of power usually are. But now that they’re back in power, well, someday it will be their turn to be complacent.
* The special election to fill Cuccinelli's seat. Democrats now hold a bare majority in the state Senate -- 21-19. But now one of those 19 just got elected to higher office, so that means there'll be a special election to fill Cuccinelli's seat. His Northern Virginia district has, in the past, trended Democratic at times. So it's possible Democrats could pick that up. If so, they'll surely trumpet that as a sign of a nascent comeback. Of course, they could lose it, too. In that case, well, the Democratic majority relies on an aging member (Charles Colgan). And the last Republican governor -- Jim Gilmore -- proved quite skillful in finding ways to pick off Democrats in districts that could be flipped to Republicans. His favorite method: Find some Democrat near retirement age whom he could Dappoint to some well-paid but not especially important office and, bingo, you have a vacant seat that Republicans could pick up.
I bet Republican operatives are at this moment already looking over the list of state senators to figure out who they most entice into the administration.
So right now, it's the Democrats who have the most immediate worries; the Republicans are more long-term.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
Republicans are claiming a net pick-up of at least five House seats tonight.
But wait, that's not all.
In all, it looks like eight House incumbents have lost night -- seven Democrats and one Republican (Phil Hamilton in Newport News.)
Earlier this evening, we posted some analysis on how unusual it is for a House incumbent to lose.
Well, looks like we have some history being made tonight.
The Virginia Public Access Project says that since 1995, the most number of House incumbents to lose is four. Usually it's one or two. So we've doubled that number tonight.
Granted, 1995 isn't that long ago, in historical terms, but still, you get the idea. It's hard to knock off incumbents, and tonight, Republicans knocked off a lot.
I believe that's what's called "coattails."
Coming next: What Republicans should worry about
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
McDonnell has now moved ahead of Deeds in Fairfax County, with 94 percent of the vote reporting there.
Why does that matter, since McDonnell has beaten Deeds like a yard sale drum all over the state anyway?
Well, it's just another indication of the completeness of McDonnell's victory -- and the scale of the Democratic defeat.
Democrats simply can't afford to lose Fairfax. To win, they have to not just win there, they have to win big.
This year, they did neither.
The last Republican candidate statewide to win Fairfax? Jim Gilmore in 1997.
By the way, the latest statewide totals put McDonnell at 59 percent to 41 percent, so the previous analysis still holds: This would be the biggest Republican victory ever in a governor's race, and the biggest margin for any winning candidate for governor since 1961.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
The great thing about Virginia (if you’re a political junkie) is that there’s ALWAYS an election next year.
In 2010, the entire U.S. House of Representatives will be up for re-election. Here in Western Virginia, all eyes have been on the 5th District in Southside. Last year, Republican Virgil Goode was upset by Democrat Tom Perriello. Given the closeness of Perrielleo’s victory, and the conservative bent of that district, it’s a given that he’ll face stiff competition next year.
But I’ve read a surprisingly number stories out of Washington that also list Rep. Rick Boucher, D-Abingdon, as a congressmen who might be in trouble next year.
I don’t know if that’s just superficial speculation -- he’s a Democrat who represents a rural district, the classic profile of a Democrat who might go down if there’s a Republican comeback -- or if there’s something deeper going on.
We do know that Republicans have spent a nice chunk of change trying to soften Boucher up. And
Republicans are chortling tonight because they've knocked off a sitting delegate in the coalfields -- Republican Will Morefield has ousted Democrat Dan Bowling from Tazewell County. Republicans in Washington are already trumpeting that as evidence that Boucher could be knocked off, as well.
Don't know about that. We're seeing tonight that just because one party is up one year doesn't mean it'll be up the next year.
But, here's the worrisome thing for Boucher: There’s talk that Del. Terry Kilgore of Scott County -- brother of the former attorney general -- might run. If so, that would constitute the strongest challenge Boucher will have faced since his first re-election campaign in 1984 against Jeff Stafford of Giles County.
So, keep your eyes on Kilgore.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
Republican Bill Cleaveland's victory over Democrat Gwen Mason for the House seat being vacated by the retiring Del. William Fralin, R-Roanoke, may not have been much of a surprise. After all, that's a Republican-leaning district and this was sure a Republican-leaning year.
But here's something not many expected: Cleaveland beat Mason not just in the surburbs, but also in Roanoke city. Not all the city precincts are in yet, but right now Cleaveland -- who lives in Botetourt -- is taking 52 percent of the vote in the city against a sitting city council member.
Granted, a lot of the city precincts are Republican ones in South Roanoke. Still, Cleaveland also won in Jefferson-Riverdale, which is usually counted in the Democratic camp, and in Garden City and Williamson Road No. 6, as well. Mason took Jefferson No. 2, and then is splitting the Raleigh Court precincts.
Is this a result of this being a strong Republican year? Or does this suggest some unhappiness in the city with the direction of City Council?
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
In the photo: Del.-elect Bill Cleaveland (left) with House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith, R-Salem. Photo by Kyle Green, The Roanoke Times
OTHER ELECTION ANALYSIS:
* Analysis: The most expensive governor's race ever
* Analysis: Where we'll be looking tonight
* Analysis: How many House seats will change hands tonight?
* Analysis: The biggest winning margin since . . .
* Analysis: The polls close; here's what's coming . . .
* Analysis: The saddest sight I've seen in politics
* Analysis: The first precinct reports in
* Analysis: An early return from Henrico County
* Analysis: A closer look at McDonnell's lead
* Analysis: McDonnell winning places that Democrats did four years ago
* Analysis: Henry County flips to McDonnell
* Analysis: Deeds running weaker in Northern Virginia
* Analysis: How Deeds did it -- a counter-factual look at McDonnell's victory
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama hurt Deeds
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama didn't matter
* Analysis: Are sweeps common or rare in Virginia?
* Analysis: Republicans take back the suburbs
* Analysis: Are primary winners destined to be November losers?
* Analysis: McDonnell may win biggest Republican victory ever
* Analysis: Should the Democrats blame their defeat on . . . Terry McAuliffe?
* Analysis: Did the Republicans win this race four years ago?
* Analysis: Should the Democrats blame . . . Phil Puckett?
* Analysis: Why didn't the thesis sink McDonnell?
* Analysis: Is winning re-election a bad career move?
* Analysis: Let the 2013 governor's race begin!
* Analysis: Kiss rural candidates goodbye
We have complete results here.
An incorrect formula to determine percentages has delayed Montgomery County's election results from being posted on the State Board of Elections Web site, an official in the registrar's office said this evening.
-- Chris Winston
