Creigh Deeds has tonight stunned Virginia, and the nation, by leading a Democratic sweep that defies more than a generation of historical precedent in the Old Dominion.
So how did he do it? Here are a few secrets behind tonight’s Democratic victory:
* Deeds used his momentum from his primary upset in June to carry him through the summer. Many primary winners are so exhausted -- both physically and financially -- that they take time off. Not Deeds; he launched right into his fall campaign. That extended his winning aura, and caught the Republicans off-guard.
* The rural Deeds became a better suburban candidate than the suburban McDonnell could ever hope to be. The turning point in the Democratic primary came when the Washington Post proclaimed Deeds the best candidate for Northern Virginia; he went on to trounce two Northern Virginia candidates there. That was just the beginning. As the campaign wore on, the Bath County legislator -- instead of being “a nobody from nowhere,” as he once called himself -- seemed to become more and more suburban before our very eyes. Not since Patrick County-born Gerald Baliles in the 1980s have we seen a candidate with rural roots so completely transformed into the perfect candidate for an increasingly-suburban state.
* Deeds had a clear and compelling message. The clearest and most compelling message in Virginia politics was Jim Gilmore’s three-word slogan in 1997: “No car tax!” Deeds’ message wasn’t quite that simple, but it was simple enough. By contrast, McDonnell’s message seemed confused and misdirected. He spent much of the campaign attacking Deeds for things a governor has nothing to do with -- cap-and-trade legislation, the proposed union ‘card check” legislation. Voters recognized that and punished him for it.
* Democrats who were energized for Obama last year transferred that enthusiasm to this year’s ticket. All those “surge” voters who came out for Obama last year? They were back again this year, and were easily turned on by Deeds’ aw-shucks persona. The Republicans thought they were hungry for a win this year; they weren’t nearly as hungry as the super-charged Democrats were who wanted to “go for two.” In fact . . .
* Obama’s victory last year shows Virginia has turned so reliably Democratic that even a weak Democratic will have an advantage over a strong Republican. We’ve seen a steady succession of Democratic victories in the state, all keyed to Northern Virginia. Given that string of victories -- Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Jim Webb, Barack Obama -- well, let’s face it. Virginia is now a Democratic state. * McDonnell’s master’s thesis made him an anathema to suburban voters. Suburban voters tend to be fiscally conservative, but socially moderate. McDonnell’s thesis killed his attempts to present a more moderate image; thereafter, he was politically radioactive. He got tagged as a religious zealot, and couldn’t shake it.
* Virginians were in a mood to “keep a good thing going.” They liked Mark Warner, they liked Tim Kaine, so therefore, they were inclined to like Creigh Deeds, too.
Wait . . . . you’re saying all of this is, well, um, wrong? Why yes, it is. Historians sometimes find it useful to examine a particular event by presenting what’s called a counter-factual argument -- look at the exact opposite of something, and perhaps you can then understand why it didn’t happen.
Examples: How Lee won at Gettysburg. How the Germans successfully invaded Britain in September 1940. And so forth.
The reality is, none of the things above came to pass -- and that all helps explain why McDonnell is winning tonight.
Deeds did not extend his momentum from his June primary. He never connected with suburban voters. He did not have a clear, compelling message -- best illustrated by the moment in one of the debate when McDonnell held up a blank piece of paper and said that was Deeds’ transportation plan. Democrats seemed thoroughly disspirited this year, as if they had used up all their energy last year. They certainly never got excited about Deeds.
Virginia remains a competitive state and, in fact, Obama may have hurt Deeds, not helped him (more on that later.) McDonnell, despite his social conservative background, came across as a fairly mainstream conservative. His controversial master’s thesis mattered for about a week, but that’s about all (more on that later, too.) And Virginians didn’t seem to be a mood to keep a good thing going. In fact, some of them may not have considered things so good, after all, as evidenced by Kaine’s falling poll numbers.
And if you’re interested in those other counter-factual arguments, well, Lee lost at Gettysburg because he lost contact with his calvary, and thus the bulk of the Union Army, for a critical window of time until fate brought the two armies together in front of a strongpoint of the union’s choosing. With the battle joined, Lee failed to heed the advice of his senior lieutenant and attempted to attack the center of the Union line after failing to turn either flank. If only Jeb Stuart had kept in touch with Lee . . .
We’ll now return you to the present dimension.
Next up: The Obama factor in the election.
-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor
OTHER ELECTION ANALYSIS:
* Analysis: The most expensive governor's race ever
* Analysis: Where we'll be looking tonight
* Analysis: How many House seats will change hands tonight?
* Analysis: The biggest winning margin since . . .
* Analysis: The polls close; here's what's coming . . .
* Analysis: The saddest sight I've seen in politics
* Analysis: The first precinct reports in
* Analysis: An early return from Henrico County
* Analysis: A closer look at McDonnell's lead
* Analysis: McDonnell winning places that Democrats did four years ago
* Analysis: Henry County flips to McDonnell
* Analysis: Deeds running weaker in Northern Virginia
We have complete results here.
