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Roanoke Sheriff Octavia Johnson has apparently won re-election by just 141 votes. She took only 42.4 percent of the vote, but it was a three-way race, with Democrat Frank Garrett coming up short at 41.7 percent and independent Brian Keenum polling 15.78 percent.

Johnson -- an African-American, and a Republican -- ran strongest in the city's predominantly black precincts of Northwest Roanoke. For instance, she took 76 percent of the vote in the Melrose precinct, nearly 72 percent in Villa Heights, 68 percent in Eureka Park.

But she ran much weaker than other Republican candidates in the southern part of the city. For instance, Bob McDonnell took 63 percent of the vote in South Roanoke No. 2, while Johnson only got 41 percent of the vote there.

So you could say that her lack of support among Republican voters in the southern part of the city almost cost her the election.

Or . . . you could say that she owes her re-election to South Roanoke and Raleigh Court. How so?

Well, it was a three-way race. And the third candidate -- Keenum, the independent -- ran strongest in South Roanoke and parts of Raleigh Court. There were eight precincts where he took more than 20 percent of the vote, and six of those were in the southern part of the city.

It's easy to imagine a Republican-leaning voter there who didn't feel good about voting for Johnson, whose tenure has been marked by some controversy, most notably the training incident where her own officers were stationed downrange during a live firing exercise. It's also easy to envision those same voters not being willing to vote for a Democrat -- yet here was a third option, a vote for an independent.

Would Garrett have beaten Johnson in a straight-up, two-way race? We'll never know.

But this reminds me of the 1994 Senate race, where some Republicans couldn't stomach the thought of voting for Oliver North, but they sure weren't going to vote for Democrat Charles Robb, either. Instead, they could park their vote with Republican-turned-independent Marshall Coleman. If you look back at those returns, it was precincts such as South Roanoke and Raleigh Court where Coleman did best.

-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor

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What? Why should Republicans worry? They just won.

Won big, in fact.

Historically big.

But political parties should always worry. Politics follows the old principle: What goes up, must come down. Republicans were down. Now they’re up. Someday -- we don’t know when -- they’ll come back down again.

Their goal now is to delay that day for as long as possible.

What would cause Republicans to stumble? Here are some things they might want to worry about:

* First, McDonnell has to do a good job as governor. Well, we all know that. And I’m sure Republicans will say this will be a cinch. Still, office-holders can get blamed for lots of things beyond their control. The economy, for instance. And Northern Virginia’s transportation problems often seem beyond any solution other than gobs of money that the state doesn’t have. McDonnell has a transportation plan, to be sure, but critics say it’s based on fiscal fairy dust -- revenues, for instance, from off-shore drilling that may not happen for years, if at all. And if Northern Virginians aren’t happy, well, I won’t say nobody’s happy. But you don’t want to make the state’s biggest voting bloc unhappy.

* Will Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling excite voters? He’s now the heir apparent. But he’s not exactly Mr. Charisma. Personally, I think charisma is overrated. But we’ve seen tonight what happens when a party isn’t excited about its nominee. In terns of having a personal or political narrative, Bolling would be the least interesting nominee for governor since, well, I’d venture Albertis Harrison in 1961. Now, being interesting isn’t always a good thing. Republican Marshall Coleman was terribly interesting -- and that’s one reason he lost, not once but twice. Still, just saying, will Republicans be as excited about Bolling in four years as they were about McDonnell this year?

* Will Cuccinelli overreach? He’s easily the most conservative candidate to win statewide office, and he promises to be an activist attorney general -- suing the federal government when he believes it’s encroaching on “state’s rights.” The Washington Post said he’d be “an embarrassment” to the state. I’m sure Republicans don’t agree but, well, what if Cuccinelli does go too far?

* Overconfidence. Pride is the deadliest of the seven sins, in theology as well as in politics. Republicans were hungry this year, as parties out of power usually are. But now that they’re back in power, well, someday it will be their turn to be complacent.

* The special election to fill Cuccinelli's seat. Democrats now hold a bare majority in the state Senate -- 21-19. But now one of those 19 just got elected to higher office, so that means there'll be a special election to fill Cuccinelli's seat. His Northern Virginia district has, in the past, trended Democratic at times. So it's possible Democrats could pick that up. If so, they'll surely trumpet that as a sign of a nascent comeback. Of course, they could lose it, too. In that case, well, the Democratic majority relies on an aging member (Charles Colgan). And the last Republican governor -- Jim Gilmore -- proved quite skillful in finding ways to pick off Democrats in districts that could be flipped to Republicans. His favorite method: Find some Democrat near retirement age whom he could Dappoint to some well-paid but not especially important office and, bingo, you have a vacant seat that Republicans could pick up.
I bet Republican operatives are at this moment already looking over the list of state senators to figure out who they most entice into the administration.
So right now, it's the Democrats who have the most immediate worries; the Republicans are more long-term.

-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor

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The great thing about Virginia (if you’re a political junkie) is that there’s ALWAYS an election next year.
In 2010, the entire U.S. House of Representatives will be up for re-election. Here in Western Virginia, all eyes have been on the 5th District in Southside. Last year, Republican Virgil Goode was upset by Democrat Tom Perriello. Given the closeness of Perrielleo’s victory, and the conservative bent of that district, it’s a given that he’ll face stiff competition next year.

But I’ve read a surprisingly number stories out of Washington that also list Rep. Rick Boucher, D-Abingdon, as a congressmen who might be in trouble next year.

I don’t know if that’s just superficial speculation -- he’s a Democrat who represents a rural district, the classic profile of a Democrat who might go down if there’s a Republican comeback -- or if there’s something deeper going on.

We do know that Republicans have spent a nice chunk of change trying to soften Boucher up. And
Republicans are chortling tonight because they've knocked off a sitting delegate in the coalfields -- Republican Will Morefield has ousted Democrat Dan Bowling from Tazewell County. Republicans in Washington are already trumpeting that as evidence that Boucher could be knocked off, as well.

Don't know about that. We're seeing tonight that just because one party is up one year doesn't mean it'll be up the next year.

But, here's the worrisome thing for Boucher: There’s talk that Del. Terry Kilgore of Scott County -- brother of the former attorney general -- might run. If so, that would constitute the strongest challenge Boucher will have faced since his first re-election campaign in 1984 against Jeff Stafford of Giles County.

So, keep your eyes on Kilgore.

-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor

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Republican Bill Bolling tonight won re-election as lieutenant governor. Because Virginia has a one-term-and-you’re-out limit on the governor, we don’t have much experience with our top state officials running for re-election. Governor’s can’t, and usually lieutenant governors and attorney general run for, well, governor.
So what’s the history here?
In what I’m considering the “modern” era of Virginia politics, here are the examples before us:
* Andrew Miller: Elected attorney general in 1969, re-elected in 1973, ran for the Democratic nomination for governor and lost in 1977.
* Mary Sue Terry. Elected attorney general in 1985, re-elected in 1989, ran for governor in 1993 and lost.
* Don Beyer. Elected lieutenant governor in 1989, re-elected in 1993, ran for governor in 1997 and lost.
So, three examples, three losers. (All Democrats, by the way.)
Coincidence or trend?
One argument would say each candidate was smart to run for re-election -- avoiding difficult circumstances each time -- and just had bad luck when they finally went for the top job.
Is there another argument to be made that running for re-election is a bad idea?

-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor

OTHER ELECTION ANALYSIS:
* Analysis: The most expensive governor's race ever
* Analysis: Where we'll be looking tonight
* Analysis: How many House seats will change hands tonight?
* Analysis: The biggest winning margin since . . .
* Analysis: The polls close; here's what's coming . . .
* Analysis: The saddest sight I've seen in politics
* Analysis: The first precinct reports in
* Analysis: An early return from Henrico County
* Analysis: A closer look at McDonnell's lead
* Analysis: McDonnell winning places that Democrats did four years ago
* Analysis: Henry County flips to McDonnell
* Analysis: Deeds running weaker in Northern Virginia
* Analysis: How Deeds did it -- a counter-factual look at McDonnell's victory
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama hurt Deeds
* Analysis: Three reasons why Obama didn't matter
* Analysis: Are sweeps common or rare in Virginia?
* Analysis: Republicans take back the suburbs
* Analysis: Are primary winners destined to be November losers?
* Analysis: McDonnell may win biggest Republican victory ever
* Analysis: Should the Democrats blame their defeat on . . . Terry McAuliffe?
* Analysis: Did the Republicans win this race four years ago?
* Analysis: Should the Democrats blame . . . Phil Puckett?
* Analysis: Why didn't the thesis sink McDonnell?

We have complete results here.

We've just now gotten the figures on what turn-out was at 10 a.m. at precincts around the Roanoke and New River valleys, and here's what I make of those numbers:

Black turn-out is heavy in Roanoke.

Roanoke has seven predominantly African-American precincts and, historically, turn-out there is lower than in the white precincts.

Today, it's not. The 10 a.m. turn-out figures showed voters in those precincts turning out at the same rate as their white counterparts, if not higher -- with just one exception. That's the Villa Heights precinct.

Some numbers to chew on:

Let's take Fishburn Park, a solidly Republican precinct on the edge of South Roanoke. In the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, turn-out there was 68 percent and 70 percent.

By comparison, let's look at some of the black precincts in Roanoke. The two lowest-voting black precincts have historically been Lincoln Terrace and Melrose.

* Lincoln Terrace saw 47 percent turnout in 2000, 55 percent in 2004.

* Melrose saw turnouts of 50 percent and 54 percent.

Both, of course, are distinctly lower than our comparison precinct in Fishburn Park.

But today?

Well, by 10 a.m., slightly more than 30 percent of the voters in Fishburn Park had gone to the polls.

And in Lincoln Terrace? The same figure! In Melrose, almost the same figure -- 26 percent.

So the two lowest-voting black precincts are voting at the same rate as one of the most reliable (and Republican) white precincts. If those voting trends continue, Lincoln Terrace and Melrose would see their turn-out go up by about 40 percent. Or more.

I'm assuming they'll wind up running about even with Fishburn Park -- so an increase of about 50 percent turnout to 70 percent turnout. But, of course, turnout could run higher, which would mean a proprotionately bigger increase in the black precincts than the white precincts.

Now, some of the other black precincts usually have a little better turn-out, though not as strong as many of the white precincts. By the 10 a.m. figures show their turn-out to be stronger than many white precincts.

For instance, Washington Heights had 35 percent turn-out, Westside had 34 percent. Both better than Fishburn Park. (Don't mean to keep harping on Fishburn Park, but it's actually an excellent example of a precinct that always turns out strong.)

Now, the black precincts aren't the highest voting precincts in the city. Those honors belong to South Roanoke No. 1(with 51 percent turnout)  and Raleigh Court No. 5 (with 41 percent turnout). Both of those were precincts that Bush carried.

Of course, those were also precincts that Democrat Tim Kaine carried in his race for governor in 2006.

So what does that mean?

Check back for more analysis as the day goes on.

-- Dwayne Yancey, senior editor

Roanoke Parks and Recreation's Mountain View Center is still closed due to the recent power outage. The city has no estimate yet as to when the center will reopen.

For more information, contact Recreation Superintendent Michael Clark at 853-1198.

Residents in Roanoke City and Roanoke County continue to be the most affected by power outages that occurred after high winds knocked down trees and sent debris into power lines Sunday, according to Appalachian Power Co.

As of 6:30 a.m., 12,079 customers or 24 percent of the total 50,311 customers in Roanoke City are without power. In Roanoke County, 6,074 customers or 14 percent of the total 43,755 customers are without power.

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One more Roanoke polling station has been moved this morning due to continuing power outages, according to Deidre Martin, vice chair of Roanoke’s Electoral Board.

Westside Precinct, which normally votes at West Side Elementary, will move to William Fleming High School. The high school is located at 3649 Ferncliff Ave., N.W.

Four Roanoke other polling places due to continuing power outages at some schools, registrar Beryl Brooks announced.

• Voting at Highland Park Elementary School will be moved to Jefferson Center.
• Voting at Ruffner Middle School will be moved to William Fleming High School.
• Voting at Fairview Elementary School will be moved to Melrose Branch Library.
• Voting at Raleigh Court Elementary School will be moved to Patrick Henry High School.

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Four Roanoke polling places will be moved Tuesday due to continuing power outages at some schools, registrar Beryl Brooks announced.

• Voting at Highland Park Elementary School will be moved to Jefferson Center.
• Voting at Ruffner Middle School will be moved to William Fleming High School.
• Voting at Fairview Elementary School will be moved to Melrose Branch Library.
• Voting at Raleigh Court Elementary School will be moved to Patrick Henry High School.

Since the Jefferson Center and Patrick Henry High School are existing precincts, voters at these locations are asked to be patient as the number of citizens who come to vote will be greater.

Signs will be posted at the four relocated voting precincts to refer citizens to the new locations.

For more information, call the Registrar's Office at 853-2281.

Some traffic signals in Roanoke are still out of service tonight:

• Peters Creek Road intersections from Hershberger Road to Steel Drive
• Orange Avenue and Gainsboro Road
• Orange Avenue and Fifth Street
• Moorman Avenue and 10th Street
• Hershberger Road and Ordway Drive
• Hershberger Road and Ferncliff Avenue
• Brambleton Avenue and Shenandoah Life
• Brambleton Avenue and Overland Drive
• Franklin Road and Wonju Street
• Franklin Road and Ukrops
• Franklin Road and Duke of Gloucester Street.

In addition, two school flashers on Williamson Road for the Breckinridge/Preston Park area schools have been damaged. They should be restored within the week.