In Sunday's paper, we have a story by reporter Michael Sluss on the latest Mason-Dixon Poll in Virginia, which shows Barack Obama with a small lead over John McCain. In that story, pollster Brad Coker notes there are an unusually high number of undecided voters in his sample -- the highest number he's seen at this stage of a Virginia election since 1989, when Doug Wilder ran for governor. That's potentially significant, because a) neither candidate has more than 50 percent in the poll, so the undecideds will make the difference and b) Wilder was black. So, too, of course, is Obama -- and there's a fair amount of scholarly debate about how accurate polls are when African-American candidates are on the ballot.
This is known nationally as "The Bradley Effect," named after Tom Bradley, a black candidate for governor of California in 1982 who led in the polls up to Election Day, but then lost. Did white voters lie? Or maybe those undecided voters weren't really undecided after all -- they just choose to offer what seemed a "socially acceptable" answer of "undecided" when really they had no intention of casting a ballot for the black candidate. Here in Virginia, we prefer to call it The Wilder Effect.
With this latest poll, Coker offers an addendum about hidden racial bias in polling, and I'll include it in full below.
First, though, a couple words about polling. There are, of course, lots of polls out there. One of the best collections is on Real Clear Politics, so you can see how this Mason-Dixon poll in Virginia stacks up against others, in the state and across the country. I think you'll generally find that Mason-Dixon is one of the most cautious polls out there, so it often doesn't show as big a margin as others do. That sense of caution is one reason we've worked with Mason-Dixon over the years.
I had a column October 5 that offered some consumer advice on polls, and then another on October 26 that discussed The Wilder Effect, with a blog post that offered additional resources on the subject. Now comes Coker himself with his own thoughts: Read more »