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Wednesday's high of 69 and low of 34 in Roanoke brought the average temperature for the month of October to 63.6 degrees, making it the second warmest October on record. The hottest October was in 1984 when the temperature averaged 64.3 degrees.

The normal October average temperature is 56.5 degrees, so this October was more than 7 degrees above normal. A year ago, October's average temperature was 55.4 degrees, more than a degree below normal.

Only nine Octobers have averaged above 60 degrees since weather records began being kept at Roanoke Regional Airport in 1948. Counting the one just completed, only two of those have occurred in the last 22 years.

Tropical Storm Noel still looks to slip past Florida, though it is close enough to stir up some waves. The storm, currently stationary, will eventually pick up speed, develop some extratropical characteristics, and race toward Newfoundland and Greenland, missing the rest of the U.S. East Coast by several hundred miles. I wouldn't be surprised if the surf picks up nicely on the Outer Banks as it goes by. Noel's biggest effect on our weather will seem counterintuitive ... this tropical storm is going to help pull down Arctic cold toward early next week. The system's counterclockwise pull near Newfoundland and Greenland, combined with high pressure building in the west, will pull cold air south from Canada. Hurricane Wilma, following a similar path, had a similar effect two years ago, actually triggering some late October snow as close as eastern West Virginia. We'll have to wait on specifics to see if the "s" word invades some of our forecasts for the first time this season, but those hot days of early October are definitely a fading memory now.

There could be some cold weather on the way maybe by next week some time. Two things are expected to happen that could funnel cold air southward. (1) High pressure will build through the western U.S. and even into Alaska, bringing very warm weather there, but dislodging the jet stream far to the south over the eastern U.S. (2) What is now Tropical Storm Noel will become part of a hybrid-extratropical kind of low pressure system that will move toward Newfoundland and, with its counterclockwise spin, pull cold air from around Hudson Bay southward.

When the Climate Prediction Center map shows a likelihood of below normal temperatures (see Tuesday's 6-10-day and 8-14-day forecast maps) for November, that can mean pretty chilly stuff. While the forecast maps also show it to be quite dry, I certainly wouldn't rule out the "s" word re-entering some area forecasts if there are a day or two of northwest winds whipping over the mountains, getting the upslope going with a dab of moisture off the very unfrozen Great Lakes. But ... I'm getting ahead of myself.

The Atlantic tropical season is largely forgotten by Americans, but it's not gone. Tropical Storm Noel has dumped a ton of rain on some Caribbean nations, but it appears likely to be turned northeastward by the same cold front that has brought us the frosty mornings. As a result, Noel is expected to miss the U.S., and probably will never be a hurricane, anyway. It's been deadly for Haiti though ... click here for the latest from The Associated Press.

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg notes that temperatures fell to freezing and widespread frost occurred from the Blue Ridge westward overnight, so the growing season has ended in those areas. Even the official temperature at the Roanoke Regional Airport fell to 32 degrees this morning. Frost and freeze warnings will not be issued the remainder of this year for the areas where the growing season has ended, but a freeze warning is up for areas south and east of Roanoke where temperatures were a little warmer last night but likely to go to 32 or below tonight. Click here for the latest from the National Weather Service.

For Roanoke, the latest first freeze on record was in 2002 when it did not occur until Nov. 19. The earliest first freeze was in 1994 when it occurred on Oct. 1. Last year's first freeze was on Oct. 15.

Most of Western Virginia along and west of the Blue Ridge is under a freeze warning tonight as temperatures are expected to drop to near the freezing mark. It might get even a little colder on Monday night.

Roanoke often has a way of staying a little warmer than the surrounding countryside because of the "urban heat island" effect, so mid 30s might be a reasonable expectation in the more urban parts of the Roanoke Valley come Monday morning. If the temperature does get to 32 or below, it would be about a week later than our 60-year average for first freeze, but right on time for the last 10 years -- Oct. 29 has been the average first freeze date since 1997.

Click here for Roanoke's current and last-24-hour observations

Click here for cities across the region

For the latest freeze advisories, click on the National Weather Service current events page.

Never mind that I said it would be warm and dry into the foreseeable future in my Weather Journal column today. The overall outlook is still pretty warm -- normal to slightly above normal temperatures -- through most of this week. But we did have a cold front charge through last night, and another reinforcing shot of Canadian air will move through tonight. This will lead to our coldest nights since last April on Sunday and Monday. The National Weather Service has put out a freeze watch for several Southwest Virginia counties, including the Roanoke and New River valleys. What that simply means is that temperatures could get to 32 or below in the watch area for the first time this season, ending the growing season. It's not an unexpected development for late October -- in fact, the first freeze has usually come and gone by this time -- but the weather service does issue watches and warnings for the first such possible instance of sub-freezing weather as an advisory to farmers and gardeners.

There is some sign that colder air could make a bigger move on us a little more than a week out. We'll come back to that.

Some light rain and drizzle will continue for a few more hours, but the bulk of this major 3-day rain event is in the record books. In the extended entry below is a list of unofficial rainfall tallies from around the area. Looks like Snow Creek remained on top, with just over 11 inches since Wednesday. 4 to 8 inches seems to be common. Sounds more like snowfall totals than rain, doesn't it?

I'm skeptical about a few of these, like the Blacksburg NWS reporting 3.52 and Virginia Tech Airport getting 1.87, when they are right across the street from each other. Again, these are unofficial and will need some fine tuning and double-checking later.

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The persistent area of rain that has dominated our weather for three days is starting to shift east. The flood watch has been lifted. We'll continue to see drizzle and showers in the New River and Roanoke valleys the next few hours, but the bulk of the rain is now east of the Blue Ridge. I would not be surprised if the rain ends by midnight in Roanoke. The weekend may really be pretty as a cold front sweeps out the moisture and sunshine returns.

I'll have some updated totals later this evening. Snow Creek in Franklin County has reached 10 inches. Most rainfall amounts in Southwest and Southside Virginia are 3 to 6 inches.

We're still going to be many inches below normal when the rain ends late tonight or Saturday, but that doesn't mean we can't have too much in a short period of time. With that possibility in mind, the National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a flood watch for much of Southwest and Southside Virginia through this evening.

The current rainfall event has topped 4 inches throughout the Roanoke Valley and ranges upward to above 8 inches in some counties to the south. Additional rain of 2 to 3 inches may occur through this evening, and some of it could come down in heavy downpours as moisture continues to stream northward in a persistent band being pulled by the slow-moving low pressure area to our west.

For the latest on the rain, click on the National Weather Service current events page and on local Doppler radar.