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Colder than normal weather appears likely over the next 6-10 days and possibly longer, according to the Climate Prediction Center. But right now, it also looks like it will likely remain dry. That's not good news as our driest November on record comes to an end on Friday with only .18 inch of rain in Roanoke, the 11th month of the last 12 that has been below normal in precipitation. We have returned to moderate drought, according to the latest Drought Monitor map.

If this forecast comes to fruition, it could be a repeat of our cold snaps last winter that were largely dry and produced some skin-cracking temperatures, but little snow. You can get a couple of inches of snow out of very little moisture, but as of right now, it looks like the best chance of a big snow in the upcoming cold wave will be in the Northeast. Our Monday-Tuesday period may end up windy with snow flurries, and heavier snow squalls in those favored upslope areas of West Virginia. As of now, there is no obvious winter storm system on the way during the upcoming cold spell, but we'll keep our eyes out for any disturbances with potential.

According to the latest Threats Assessment temperature map from the Climate Prediction Center, some wintry cold may be just around the corner next week.

Roanoke got a whopping .09 inch the last two days out of what appeared to be a decent-looking rain system. This leaves us at only .18 inch for the month of November. With our rain chances limited to showers on Thursday, this has a strong chance of eclipising the .44 inch in November 1960 as the driest November on record.

Though it wouldn't be absolutely shocking to see or hear a little sleet bounce around on Sunday morning, the winter weather threat looks very minimal with the upcoming system. But, according to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center map linked here, the chances of widespread rain over areas that need it during the next 5 days looks very good. Compare the 5-day-rain map to the current Drought Monitor map.

Thanksgiving hasn't been as messy as we thought earlier. The rain was showery rather than widespread, so some folks got a few quick downpours, while others (like most of the Roanoke Valley) got very little. Either way, the cold front has moved through, and blustery northwest winds have begun to take our temperatures down.

While temperatures will be cold tonight and Friday morning, Friday night and Saturday morning will be our coldest so far this season. Expect the low 20s here in the Roanoke Valley, with teens in most places to the north and west.

Advancing moisture ahead of a new storm system still could catch enough of the cold here for a little freezing rain, sleet or snow late Saturday night and early Sunday, but warming temperatures should turn it all to rain by midday Sunday.

The temperature has hit at least 73, tying the record set on this date in 1991. We'll see a little later if we squeeze another degree or two out of today's warmth. (UPDATED 11/22: Correcting my post here earlier, our high did top out at 73 without going higher, so we tied the record)

A cold front approaching Thursday will sling rain and maybe some storms our way, with windy and chilly weather setting in after the front passes. So Turkey Day looks messy. Then things might get really interesting come Saturday night and Sunday ... it will be a race to see if newly arriving moisture can get in before the cold air gets pushed out. If it does, we could get our first taste of significant ice, sleet or snow this season.

Let's just focus on the Thanksgiving fixings before we look closer at the weekend.

My previous blog entry noted that the record high in Roanoke for Nov. 20 was 73 ... it was actually 78 in 1985. The record for Nov. 21, Wednesday, is 73 in 1991, which could be challenged. Today's high in Roanoke has hit at least 73.

Today and Wednesday with both feature unseasonable warmth, with highs close to 70 in the Roanoke Valley. Normals for Roanoke this time of year run in the upper 50s for highs with records typically in the low to mid 70s (73 is the record high for Nov. 20). So record warmth is again possible, but don't get used to it. A cold front sweeps in Thanksgiving, and colder air returns for late in the week and into the weekend.

While we see a little warmer weather this week with some days in the 60s, a cold front arriving about Thanksgiving will bring a return to colder temperatures by next weekend. If the Climate Prediction Center is right, most of the next two weeks will feature below-normal temperatures from the Rocky Mountains eastward to the Atlantic Ocean. Click here for Saturday's 6-10-day and 8-14-day temperature forecast maps. Remember that the darker blue shades don't necessarily mean colder temperatures, but instead, a greater likelihood of below-normal temperatures. So November stands a good chance of finishing as our first below-normal temperature month on average since July.

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