www.roanoke.com

Several counties in the higher elevations to our west are under winter storm watches, snow advisories and heavy snow warnings (click here for the National Weather Service's map of current advisories) as a strong cold front and some upper-level disturbance brings windy, much colder weather and rounds of snow showers the next couple of days. The Roanoke Valley is on the edge, again, of the snow threat. We will see much colder, windy weather and quite likely off and on snow showers, but accumulation depends on whether one of these disturbances the next 36 hours can trigger enough widespread snow above and beyond the upslope snow shower stuff that will be hammering the mountains. It certainly would not be out of line for us to get an inch or two out of this, and the New River Valley is very likely to see that much.

This cold blast will only last a few days. Things will be getting milder again by the weekend.

Appropriately for the last day of a year that will finish as our warmest on record in Roanoke, we will see mild temperatures today, certainly in the mid to upper 50s and possibly even topping 60.

But the first day of 2008 will bring a rude awakening that winter is still alive and well. A strong Arctic cold front will usher in a few days of breezy, cold, snow-showery weather. The snow will likely pile up nicely in the western upslope regions of West Virginia and far western Virginia during that time. A couple of stronger disturbances moving through the atmosphere may even push some accumulating snow eastward into our region by Wednesday. It won't be a lot of snow but a white ground is certainly possibly by Thursday morning.

Snow or not, it will be cold, with lows in the teens to lower 20s and highs probably not getting above freezing at least one or two days in the middle to latter part of the week.

The cold air appears to be arriving too late for much more than just another cold rain on Sunday. While we can't rule out some freezing rain in some of the colder areas just to the north like the Greenbrier Valley of West Virginia and maybe even Virginia's Alleghany Highlands, a little mixed-in sleet here and there, and perhaps some brief wet snow on the back side of the rain as colder air wraps into the system Sunday night, this looks like a potential winter storm with a few pieces missing.

Later in the week, a sharp shot of true Arctic air is expected to arrive on New Year's Day. This won't last terribly long, maybe 3-5 days, but we could have a day or two where the temperature struggles to make the freezing mark. We'll probably get our typical snow showers on stiff northwest winds, accumulating in favored upslope ares to the west, and there are some signs that a vigorous Alberta clipper could make a move at us Wednesday. If there is enough moisture, that could deliver a quick shot of snow.

Beyond this coming cold snap, early-mid January is looking quite warm.

This map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows the projected path of a low pressure system on Sunday. The line is the projected track as of earlier today, with the circles representing a margin of error for the points showing forecasted low position at 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. on Sunday. During the closing days of December, this would typically be considered a nearly textbook track for a significant winter storm in our area. By the low staying south and east, it would throw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic back over colder air that builds in to the north and west of the track. But the major issue that may keep such a scenario from happening is the quality of cold air. It will be cold on Sunday, but there is nothing to force in a deeper, colder Arctic air mass. (That will come along a few days later.) The result will be a stale, shallow cold air mass with temperatures likely hovering a little above freezing in most areas. So this textbook track for a winter storm may yield primarily a cold rain on Sunday, with some freezing rain, sleet or snow mixing in at a few locations. There is still some time to monitor it for changes, but the track may actually end up being farther northwest, anyway, and therefore even a little warmer.

What it will deliver is needed rain. Here are projected rainfall maps from tonight's system and the one that follows on Sunday.

A series of storm systems over the next few days will do two things: (1) Bring widespread rain to the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states, areas that desperately need the rain, and (2) usher a sharp but brief period of cold weather to start 2007. This 5-day rainfall forecast map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows widespread amounts over 1 inch in our area with more than 3 inches in some of the most parched areas of Georgia. (Click here for latest drought severity map). The question here is whether some of this moisture will meet a sharp plunge of Arctic air late in the weekend or early next week for wintry precipitation. Some snow showers are likely to occur early in the coming week, but it will take a low moving through the Southeast around Monday pulling in some moisture into the newly established cold air to wring out significant ice or snow for us. From here, it looks like the moisture will slip just south of us as cold, dry high pressure builds in for a few days, but it is a close call.

Long term, this map from the Climate Prediction Center shows lots of red over much of the country, indicating the expectation of above-normal temperatures. For all the snow lovers, it looks like it will be difficult in the coming few weeks to match the fast-moving storm systems with the quick shots of cold air.

Some light snow accumulation occurred in the northwest North Carolina mountains and there were a few reports of brief rain mixed with sleet closer to us, but for the most part, today's storm system slipped just east of us, and it wasn't quite cold enough for wintry precipitation, anyway.

Looks like additional shots of rain -- and maybe some still-needed abundant rain -- will affect the area Friday and Sunday. Only the second of those two has any potential at all for wintry precipitation, and from this distance, that chance looks small in the Roanoke and New River valleys. Colder weather is likely to settle for a few days as 2008 begins, but it probably will not stick around long.

The disturbance passing south of us is expected to trigger a surface low pressure system along the coast near the Outer Banks this evening and Wednesday. The low may be just strong enough to throw some moisture back into our region for some precipitation overnight into Wednesday morning. The question is whether there is enough cold air for the precipitation to be of a wintry variety, or whether it will be just warm enough to stay rain. It's something to keep an eye on, and in this December of on-the-borderline, surprise, light winter weather events, my eyes will be open a little wider.

It's going to be a very white Christmas in parts of the upper Midwest after a massive snowstorm the last couple of days, but all that snow and wind has snarled holiday travel and killed nearly 20 people. Click here for the Associated Press story.

Our Christmas looks dry and seasonably cold, with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s. A weak disturbance passing to the south will likely be too far south and too dry to squeeze out any Christmas snowflakes.

Weather or not, have a Merry Christmas!!!

With gloomy, rainy weather settling in the next couple of days, and while we're still waiting to see how things line up for the system in the days after Christmas, here is something a little fun. Click here to check out Roanoke.com's most recent "E-cast." At about the 2:30 mark of the Webcast, there's a certain heavily bearded weather geek talking about our chances of a white Christmas ... and at the end, his lovely wife singing a line or two of "White Christmas."

This was shot more than a week ago, so my vague reference to "mild and dry weather" around Christmas is definitely not accurate now, with Christmas Day looking quite cold. But it does look like we will not have a white Christmas ... unless, a disturbance passing south of us that day swings north and gives us another "surprise snow."

Melting snow clings to a pine branch on, appropriately enough, Southern Pines Road in south Roanoke County

First off, I want to thank everyone who has dropped a comment reporting on their winter weather the past 24 hours. Your reports are very helpful to me and to all those who come here to check in on the weather. I hope all of you ... and many others ... will post comments anytime you have interesting weather, and you can also e-mail me. Below are the links to some photos I shot this morning in south Roanoke County. If you have interesting weather photos, always feel free to email them to me.

Snow on pines and pine cones along Southern Pines Road

The wet snow clung to every branch of many trees

A little leftover slush along South Mountain Road. Some streets became slushy early this morning.

Seth Gitner's video of the Broderick Family of southwest Roanoke County. The family recently moved to Roanoke from Alabama, and the children have only experienced snow once before. Taking advantage of a day off from school, they spent their day playing in the snow.