2008.01.29
Rain on its way tonight, and more moisture where that came from
As this radar grab from earlier this evening shows, a wide band of rain is headed our way with a cold front approaching from the west. It will probably weaken some overnight, as projected rain totals don't look like a whole lot. Overnight, we'll end up with wind and maybe a few snow flurries in the morning. A very similar storm system to this one, but slightly farther east, is expected to make its move northeastward into the Ohio Valley come Thursday. It is expected to bring a LOT more rain than this one to our region. The question is whether at the least first few hours of rain will catch up with freezing temperatures at the surface, presenting the possibility of ice. Government forecasters in Washington continue to place our area in at least a slight risk of significant ice for Thursday night, but the area of moderate risk has shifted slightly north. This seems like another very borderline situation that will warm quickly, but it only takes a little ice to make driving slick. Certainly something to monitor.
The long-term outlook is still warmer than normal.
At least we might get a little drought help the next 72 hours.
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how interesting is this threat of ice thurs night? the HPC forecast says 70%+ chance of 1/4" of ice, but NWS says "Not as cool with lows around 30." with temps in the upper 40s on friday. For Roanoke, this could be one of those "lots of speculation but just cold winter rain" storms that i'm so used to.
Comment by scott rc — January 30, 2008 @ 12:15 pm
Yeah, that same skepticism as it pertains to Roanoke (not NRV, higher Blue Ridge locations, areas to the north of Roanoke) led me to holding off all day on addressing this. I think there are some factors that increase the ice risk for Roanoke over a couple of previous episodes. I'm discussing that in my just-issued post above.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 30, 2008 @ 3:46 pm
Kevin, when NWS uses the term "east of the blue ridge", where is that exactly? Is the parkway generally the dividing line? Which side is Blacksburg on? Roanoke?
Thanks
Comment by MJ — January 31, 2008 @ 7:31 am
The parkway would be a rough dividing line, but it seems to be a little fluid. Blacksburg is always considered "west of the Blue Ridge," but often Roanoke is grouped in with the counties "east of the Blue Ridge" even though the parkway and the geographical Blue Ridge sxtend slightly east of Roanoke. Franklin County can also go either way in the forecasts being divided at the Blue Ridge. I've actually been meaning to check with the weather service folks about this.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 31, 2008 @ 9:05 am