2008.02.22
So now that this has piddled out, what's next?
A salvo of disturbances in two separate branches of the jet stream moving into cold air forced south by high pressure in Canada failed to bring anything more than sprinkles and a few ice pellets to Southwest Virginia. So what can be next in this sickly warped winter of 2007-08? This swirl of clouds off the Pacific coast is the answer. (There are 2 actually, but I'm talking about the bigger one farther offshore). It will crash on shore in northern California late in the weekend or early next week, and the atmospheric energy from it will get caught in the jet stream and cross the country. The jet stream will be dipping pretty far south, so it's likely this thing will dip south and then northeast and turn into a strong low pressure system triggering a major winter storm somewhere. Right now, that somewhere appears likely to be the same somewhere that has had almost all the winter snowfall this year: the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. The low may sweep northeast very near the Appalachian chain late in the week, bringing windy rain our way. It's possible the low will transfer its energy to a second low off the New England coast. If it does, New England will get a big snowstorm while we get sideways snow flurries on brisk northwest winds. It's all a week out, and things could change with the details of the forecast -- the last 48 hours proved that. But, in the large-scale pattern, it looks as if March will roar in like a lion, or maybe a polar bear, with colder than normal weather expected over the next 6-10 days, as shown on this map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.
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"I could make the grandiose statement that it looks like our best chance at a truly major winter storm that we've seen all season. That would be a true statement, but in this winter, it wouldn't really be saying much."..........
I'll hold on to this..thank you.
I know, I know, you didn't say anything was certain..and maybe you were being a bit wry ..but that's alright..I'll keep it.
Comment by Angela — February 23, 2008 @ 12:01 pm
You've got to read the next graf in with that: "There are still just enough screws loose in the weather pattern that it looks unlikely, from this distance, that it will be a major winter storm for Southwest Virginia." Right now, looks like another Ohio Valley special, then re-forming off the NE coast spinning some cold winds and snow showers back our way. That said, the overall pattern late this week and possibly into some of the next week has some characteristics similar to those that produce our larger winter storms. I still think there's too many things not right for it to happen, but just a little better chance than we've had all winter.
For those blog readers who don't always see my regular column, Angela is referring to this: http://www.roanoke.com/weather/wb/151857
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 23, 2008 @ 5:06 pm
Good morning Kevin,
I got that..read the whole thing. I was purposefully being naive and holding on to anything that sounded like what I want to hear. That probably didn't come across in my typing.
That said..we'll just have to wait and see. Have a great week.
Comment by Angela — February 24, 2008 @ 9:31 am