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With almost no sun peeking through the clouds today, the atmosphere has not become as destabilized as it could have been with a little surface warming, so it appears we are missing the potential thunderstorms and getting a decent steady rain instead, with a few heavier downpours. It is possible we could see a squall line move through tonight as the cold front pushes through. Expect 1/2 to 1 inch amounts to be common with some locally heavier totals. Click here for the latest National Weather Service radar.

We will also likely be spared the extremely torrential downpours that have hit states west of us, where near-historic flooding is occurring on many rivers after up to a foot of rain fell on the Arkansas and Missouri Ozarks on Tuesday. More on that from the Associated Press.

The heaviest rain certainly did go well west of us, and though we need help for our long-term dryness, it's a good thing for our local interests. Parts of Missouri and Arkansas have been inundated with 6-10 inches of rain and, as of this writing late Tuesday night, it's still pouring down. We will see a cold front push some rain toward our region during the day Wednesday. With daytime temperatures possibly warming close to 70 degrees, the atmosphere could become unstable enough for thunderstorms, a few of which could be severe. We are in the Storm Prediction Center's slight risk of severe weather for Wednesday, mainly for the threat of gusty winds. Certainly, this is our most significant threat of strong thunderstorms we've had yet this season.

As this 5-day rainfall projection map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows, the heaviest rain this week is expected to travel far to the west of us, with rather meager amounts in our neck of the woods. Wednesday and Thursday may however produce the first pretty high chance of widespread thunderstorms across the area this spring. Between now and then, expect a couple of sunny days with chilly mornigns and high temperatures around 60.

When the last drop has fallen later tonight, it looks like Roanoke will have gotten about a quarter inch total out of two days of intermittent rain -- a pretty paltry sum compared to what is needed and what had been expected with this system early in the week. A more powerful storm at midweek appears as if it will focus its heaviest rain west of us, though we will likely get something out of that, maybe even thunderstorms. We still need the rain, but in the meantime enjoy a couple of fairly mild, mostly dry March days until we see what the mid-week storm will do with itself.

We've seen some sunshine this morning through some breaks in the clouds, but a band of rain, some of it heavy, is headed eastward through Kentucky, as this radar shot from a few minutes ago shows. The heaviest rain and certainly the stronger storms will go south of us, but don't be surprised to hear a rumble or two of thunder and get a healthy gust or two as this blows in later today.

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

It appears that a tornado moved through downtown Atlanta tonight, hitting the CNN Center and the Georgia Dome with a Southeastern Conference tournament basketball game in progress. More from CNN's Web site and from the Associated Press. Yes, tornadoes can hit the centers of major metropolitan areas. Nashville, Miami, Salt Lake City, Fort Worth and Little Rock have experienced tornadoes near their city centers in the past 10 years.

When is the last time we saw this -- two overlapping areas of heavy rain potential for our region on the Climate Prediction Center's "Hazard Assessment" map, one over the next 48 hours and the other toward the middle part of next week. The good news, of course, is that reservoirs may have a chance to catch up some from many months of mostly below normal rainfall.,The bad news is that, even with overall dry conditions, a lot of rain in a short time can create some flooding concerns. The first shot over the next couple of days will be caused by a stalled frontal that will serve as a guide line for a series of disturbances, pulling abundant Gulf of Mexico and perhaps Atlantic moisture into the region. A second strong system may affect the region about Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, possibly also spreading a round of severe weather across the south-central and southeast U.S. Wintry precipitation will be limited to a few mountain snow showers after each system passes, whipping cold northwest winds into the area. Considering how warm and sunny it is today, it certainly looks like spring is arriving in Southwest Virginia.

Prospects look pretty good for rain the next few days as a storm system develops Friday and Saturday that will probably bring some rounds of rain to us. In case you're wondering about the drought situation, the Drought Monitor map shows that it's still quite severe over states to our south but the overall area is smaller. Forecasters are holding out some hope, as this map shows, that there will be drought help over the next few months.

Though we'll get a couple of cold fronts through, including one tonight, it looks like lots of days in the 50s and 60s, nights in the 30s (for Roanoke; colder in many outlying areas) with a couple of shots of showers, maybe snow showers in the higher elevations. All in all, typical March weather as we slip toward spring.

The mildish morning is about to turn more wintry as a cold front pushes through, bringing strong northwest winds and falling temperatures to the area. High wind warnings are out for a few counties, and wind advisories for others. Don't be surprised to see a few raindrops or snowflakes flying through the air.

The week ahead looks colder than normal with another potential storm system toward week's end. Once again, it looks at this early stage as if the snowy part of the storm will be west of us, but could be another close call. It is getting late in the season, too, so even when it's relatively cold, it will be getting harder and harder for the atmosphere to line up perfectly for wintry precipitation.