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Cold mornings giving way to a couple of warm afternoons

There was no freeze in Roanoke this morning, where the temperature officially fell only to 37, but many surrounding areas did experience freezing temperatures on this last day of April. May is going to start with a couple days warmup (70s, maybe low 80s) before a new cold front brings a chance of rain and thunderstorms Saturday. This is not as strong a cold front as the one early in the week, so we will probably not get as much heavy rain, the temperatures after it will not be as cold as they were this morning, and hopefully no one will experience the tornadoes that southeast Virginia got with the last system.

Flirting with freezing late tonight, Wednesday morning

Wednesday may be the last day of April but temperatures will start out cold. The mercury will probably fall below the freezing mark in the New River Valley and points westward, so a freeze warning has been issued in that area. Temperatures will probably hover near or slightly above freezing from the Roanoke Valley south and east, so a less-stringent frost advisory is in effect for those counties. It would probably be a good idea for everyone to take in any sensitive plants tonight.

For the record ... if Roanoke does happen to dip to 32 on Wednesday morning ... it would be the latest freeze in the spring since May 4, 1986. We had an April 28 freeze in 1998. This year's current last freeze date, April 16, matches 2005 as the latest since 1998.

Latest frost/freeze advisories from the National Weather Service

Destructive tornadoes strike Southeast Virginia

Photos of tornadoes in Hampton Roads area

Storm chaser films tornado at Suffolk

Reports are still coming in, but tornadoes have struck Southeast Virginia this afternoon with injuries and destruction. This was caused by the same cold front that pushed in all the heavy rain here, but hit more warmth and wind shear to our east.

The latest from the Associated Press

The latest from Norfolk's newspaper, The Virginian-Pilot

Reports of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center</a/

A beneficial rain will help April end as wet month

Roanoke picked up .74 inch of rain as of 5 p.m. and .52 inch on Sunday ... a total of 1.26, and since all of Sunday's rain fell from after 6 p.m., that makes it the first 1-inch-plus rain total in a 24-hour period since Oct. 26. If you want to be technical, we sill haven't had an inch on any particular calender day since the October date.

In all, we got 1.71 inches of rain since Friday, on top of 1.44 inches over 4 days a week ago, pushing our April total to 4.94 inches, more than an inch and a half above normal as the month comes to a conclusion Wednesday. We may see a few more showers overnight and early Tuesday, but it's unlikely that rain total will go up much more. It'll be our first month more than an inch above normal in precipitation since October.

While the strong cold front pushing through the area has meant beneficial rain for us, it has also produced a spate of tornado reports in the Hampton Roads area.

The next couple of mornings will be cold, relative to the season. A few snowflakes could fly in higher elevations, maybe even down to the New River Valley, on Tuesday morning, and Wednesday morning could bring patchy frost to Southwest Virginia.

Now, this should help dent the drought

Roanoke is in a break at the moment but another round of moderate to heavy rains is poised to the west. It would appear that today's rainfall will be the Star City's first inch-plus rain in a 24- hour period since October and also ensure that April is our first significantly above-average rainfall month since October. This is all ahead of a strong cold front that will bring some chilly mornings back to the area, possibly some spring frost to the deeper valleys by Wednesday morning, and maybe even some snow showers to higher elevations tonight. It will also be interesting to see on Thursday, when the new Drought Monitor comes out, how much today's rain will roll back the drought status in the area.

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

First, rain and storms; then, cold temperatures

After a few rumblers that kicked out some hail and gusty winds, but mostly just heavy rain and lightning, there will be a little break on Sunday, before the stronger front begins pushing through Sunday night into Monday. This will not be last week's meandering, in-a-hurry-to-get-nowhere low pressure system that spun out showers for 4 days ... this one means business and will push through with gusto Monday night. Some storms could be strong to severe, especially on Monday.

coldtempssmall.gif

Behind the front Monday, things will take a different turn -- for the colder. Some high elevation areas along the Virginia-West Virginia border may even see snowflakes, but the bigger threat will come from the possibility that some areas could drop to freezing on Tuesday morning or Wednesday morning. If the skies clear Tuesday night and the winds calm, many areas may flirt with a freeze come Wednesday morning. The Roanoke Valley will probably stay above freezing, but we'll have to take a close look at even that come Tuesday. Below-normal temperatures are expected throughout most of the eastern half of the nation, as this map shows.

So a chance of strong thunderstorms, then chilly temperatures. What a way to close April.

Follow the flip-flopping fronts

Today a weak cold front will begrudgingly move through the area. On Sunday, that same front will move back through as a warm front, having got stuck in North Carolina. On Monday, a strong cold front will push through and sweep all this mess out.

The result will be a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms today and Sunday, and a likelihood of showers and thunderstorms overnight Sunday into Monday. Then, some unseasonably cold weather will set in for a couple of mornings -- maybe some frost in the deeper valleys.

The Hydrometoerological Prediction Center is suggesting we might get about 2 inches of rain out of all this over the next 5 days, nearly all of which would fall over the next 3 days. If that is true, and we start getting rains like that fairly regularly, we could start to take some bites out of the long-term drought. But I'm a little skeptical that we'll get quite that much rain.

Afternoon thunderstorms: A familiar pattern begins

catawbastormsmall.jpg

It's that time of year again. The warm months around here frequently feature scattered afternoon thunderstorms that pop up with the day's heating and then disappear when the sun sets. The mountains can enhance storm development with the difference in temperature between ridges and valleys and also any "upslope" flow that may develop. A weak disturbance moving through the atmosphere has allowed a few storms to pop up around the area this afternoon, including one just west of Roanoke. The inset photo (larger version here) was taken looking northwest from the Roanoke Times roof garden, showing rain streaks blowing outward from storm clouds near Catawba. That indicates at least some outflow winds. You can never rule out isolated strong winds or small hail in storms like this. Any severe weather (58 mph-plus winds, 3/4 inch hail) would be very brief and local, and probably not existent at all. For the most part, these storms will provide a quick burst of rain and a few tree-rustling gusts, then dissipate. More organized storminess may occur over the weekend into Monday with a couple of fronts moving through. But this will get to be a redundant pattern if our summer is like most.

Another showery weekend?

Today should be a warm, dry day ... but there will be chances of showers and storms the next 4 days as a variety of fronts and disturbances move through, none of which look extreme. So we probably won't get enough rain to make a dent in the drought, but neither will the weekend be an entirely dry one for outdoor activities. Potentially, a bummer for everybody.

A thunderstorm or two slipping in the backdoor?

A weak cold front slipping to the south near or into our area today -- a so-called "backdoor" cold front -- might be enough to trigger a thunderstorm or two as it interacts with the warm air in place. This front will not be strong enough to make major changes in our weather, as it will either wash out or retreat, but might provide a boundary for a few showers or storms to fire in the afternoon heating. More significant cold fronts will be headed into our area from the more typical westerly direction Saturday and Monday. The Storm Prediction Center is even projecting a signficant severe weather risk just east of us for Monday.

About this blog

    Mug of Kevin Myatt

    Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."

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Comments

    • Zach: Jus somethig interesting here, - ridges in Highland County are reporting up to 1″ of snow, with 1-2 more...
    • Other John: I wound up driving through a lot of rain last night on the way back to the area, though thankfully it...
    • Other John: Watching the latest update, it’s up to CAT 2 and the Weather Channel folks are showing the low...
    • Wanda: Wishing you well with your family…Take care.
    • Kevin Myatt: By the way … there were 261 entries in the snowfall prediction contest, 50 more than last year...