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If you want a good idea of what a "normal" July is for Roanoke, the one that has just ended is about as good an example as you will ever find.

Roanoke's July average temperature was 76.1 degrees ... one-tenth of a degree below normal ... and rainfall for the month was 3.67 inches, just a third of an inch below normal.

The month's average high temperature was a wee bit below normal ... 86.9 degrees, compared to the normal of 87.5 ... but it was partly made up for by an average low temperature that was an even smaller bit warmer than normal ... 65.3 degrees, compared to a normal of 64.9.

Often, when we have a month that works out to be near normal in temperature, it is the result of averaging extremely warm periods with extremely cool periods of similar length. Not so in July: 18 of the 31 days were within 2 degrees of the normal daily average temperature. Only two days were more than 5 degrees above normal; likewise, only two days were more than 5 degrees below normal.

Here's to a refreshing dose of normalcy before August likely begins with a period of extreme heat.

A shower moves from Fort Lewis Mountain over the Roanoke Valley about 5 p.m. Click here for a bigger look at this photo.

Roanoke only got .13 inch of rain before 5 p.m., but there was widespread coverage of light to moderate rainfall amounts today across most of Southwest Virginia. A smattering of showers is all that's left this evening, as shown by this National Weather Service radar screen grab shortly after 5 p.m. As expected earlier today, the stronger storms fired to our southeast, where there was more heating. This little pocket of showers -- with maybe a couple of lightning bolts or a brief wind gust here and there -- is all that's left for us of this system, which is a combined effort of a weak cold front, an upper-level impulse, and the very dispersed remnants of what was once Category 2 Hurricane Dolly, which hit south Texas 8 days ago.

Once the weak front passes us and washes out, the atmosphere will begin drying out and high temperatures will start climbing. By Sunday, expect widespread 90s, and don't rule out a few triple-digit readings early next week, especially in Southside Virginia. There are still some factors to weight as to whether this upcoming hot spell -- caused by high pressure expanding eastward from the central U.S, as depicted on this Climate Prediction Center Hazards Assessment map. -- will stretch longer than Tuesday to begin a substantial August heat wave, or whether a new dip in the jet stream near the Great Lakes might nudge the high enough either east or back to the west to short-circuit the heat after 3 or 4 days. Being early August, we should not be surprised by a few days of mid-90s temperatures in Roanoke, but though we hit 100 four times in August 2007, the century mark is still a pretty unusual occurrence in the Star City.

National Weather Service regional radar, 10:15 a.m.

It has shown some signs of weakening, but a broad area of rain and thunderstorms is headed our way, crossing from West Virginia into Virginia. This is probably the largest area of rain that we've had coming at us in at least a couple of months. If it can hold together reasonably well, most everyone in Southwest Virginia will see some rain today. This rain is caused by the combination of a weak cold front, an upper-level disturbance and the remnants of Hurricane Dolly. The clouds (already here) and rain may arrive early enough to squelch the daytime heating that could fire stronger thunderstorms; those may occur farther east.

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

The remnant moisture of Hurricane Dolly that hit the South Texas coast more than a week ago is being pushed our way by a weak cold front. Dolly did a loop, crossing northern Mexico and then lifting into the southern Rockies before being pushed east. The extra bit of tropical moisture should enhance showers and thunderstorms ... this will be our best chance of rain in many days, maybe weeks. Don't expect anything like when a fresh tropical system moves in off the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic Ocean, when we can get some tropical wind gusts, widespread flooding downpours, and tornadoes. There may be a few strong wind gusts in a storm or two, but mostly, this will just be another episode of scattered showers and thunderstorms where one place gets two or three inches of rain and somewhere else a few miles away gets rumbly sprinkles.

The band of rain and thunderstorms that formed earlier today in West Virginia, Kentucky and far Southwest Virginia never really got its act together. It did the old spliteroo, with most of the rain missing the Roanoke and New River valleys. Heavier cells did pass close to Wytheville and through northern Botetourt and southern Rockbridge counties, but nothing extraordinary. Looks like we'll have another shot of thunderstorms on Thursday with a weak cold front, then drier and much hotter weather over the weekend into early next week.

Regional radar at 2:30 p.m., courtesy of the National Weather Service

Thunderstorms appear to be organizing over parts of eastern Kentucky and the far southwest corner of Virginia northward into southern West Virginia. These storms have generally been moving east, though some southeast trajectory has been noted at times. Some severe thunderstorm warnings have already been issued. These clusters of storms bear watching into the evening for the Roanoke and New River valleys, as well as surrounding areas of Southwest and Southside Virginia. We've seen something similar several times this summer, as recently as this past Monday, where clusters of storms develop in this same general area to our west and then move eastward, often accelerating as they move east. Heat and humidity (92 temperature, 63 dew point in Roanoke at 2 p.m.) are sufficient to intensify storms that may move eastward over the mountains today, but there are a few obstacles to overcome, like the drying-out downslope winds out of the west and northwest, and possibly some remainder of dry air aloft that squelched most of Tuesday's storm potential. I'll keep an eye out on it the rest of today.

As always, if you have notable weather where you are, please e-mail me or leave a comment below.

Click here for latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

Today's slight-risk severe weather zone from Storm Prediction Center

Well, here was what I was talking about in today's Weather Journal column in the newspaper. Today's risk area for severe weather is to our north (though shifted more eastward from where it was forecasted Tuesday) and Thursday's risk area is to our south and east (shifted farther away from us than it was forecasted Tuesday. Generally, a slight risk of severe weather is issued when there is a 15 percent or better chance that high wind (58 mph or greater) or large hail (3/4 inch or larger) will occur within 30 miles of any given location. It reflects the expectation that organized severe weather will occur, but areal coverage will be limited.

Thursday's slight-risk severe weather zone from Storm Prediction Center

The severe weather risk to our northeast today reflects an expectation that storms developing along the Blue Ridge will move eastward into an area of greater atmospheric shear, where winds are changing direction with height. The severe weather risk to our southeast on Thursday reflects an expectation that high heat and humidity may cause a few storms to erupt explosively, leading to localized downdrafts of strong winds. For Southwest Virginia, we are still close enough to both areas that we could have some similar effects, though as of now it is not expected to be to the same degree. Definitely expect some scattered storms to occur today, and a few of them may approach at least the minimal criteria to be classified as severe. The same on Thursday. After that, things dry out and heat up toward the weekend and early next week.

It doesn't look like much, but the remnants of Dolly are still producing rain and thunderstorms in the central U.S.

Hurricane Dolly came ashore a week ago in South Texas with winds of about 100 mph. It drifted westward, diminishing to a depression over northern Mexico within a day. Well, believe it or not, Dolly's remnants are still around, producing rain and thunderstorms in Kansas and Oklahoma today. During the day, the radar still had a bit of a pinwheel motion with Dolly's remnants over Kansas. This moisture is becoming wrapped into storminess associated with a weak cold front that will move eastward. It's not impossible that we could even get a little moisture out of what was once Dolly, though it would be almost impossible to tell amid the Gulf of Mexico moisture that has been steadily building. Dolly or not, there is plenty of moisture to fire scattered thunderstorms in daytime heating each of the next two days.

The much bigger story for our region could be a significant heat wave building by the weekend into early next week. We'll look closer at that as some more details become clearer.

There was a major reason I wasn't on here blogging about the rain and thunderstorms that moved through much of Southwest Virginia, especially from Roanoke south, on Monday night. I was in the middle of it, four solid hours of pouring rain from Bristol to Roanoke as my wife and I returned from an overnight trip in western North Carolina. The Bristol-Roanoke stretch usually only takes 2 1/2 hours, but we were delayed getting behind at least two wrecks, traveling behind wide loads plowing through the downpours, and at one point deciding to get out of the way of 70-mph trucks spraying us constantly on the interstate to travel U.S. 11 through the chain of towns in the New River Valley (Pulaski, Dublin, Radford and Christiansburg ... some of which were under a severe thunderstorm warning during the time we passed through them.)

In any event, it seems a lot of folks in particularly dry areas to Roanoke's south got healthy rains tonight.

The rest of this week will offer some similar chances: Occasional bouts of showers and thunderstorms, as moisture increases and hard-to-time disturbances move through.

I don't mean broken records in terms of record temperatures ... quite the opposite, it should be very much near normal for the next several days, that being high of 88 and low of 65 in Roanoke, and about 83 and 60 in Blacksburg. But today through at least Monday, and possibly beyond, we'll have the typical summertime forecast: Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

It doesn't look like there will be a big severe thunderstorm threat this weekend, but anytime there are storms, you can never rule out a localized severe gust (58 mph-plus) when a storm starts collapsing into downdrafts. The timing of various upper-level disturbances will have to be monitored the next several days, as any of them can also give storms a little more atmospheric support to become stronger.

It also doesn't look like this will provide any widespread rainfall, still very much needed. Read this Natoinal Weather Service-Blacksburg statement about the ongoing drought and how sporadic rains in thunderstorms have not helped as much as one might think.