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Somewhat unexpectedly, Hurricane Gustav has weakened some overnight, now down to Category 3 with 120 mph winds. It may yet pick up some strength moving over warm Gulf of Mexico waters today, though, and is still projected to come ashore somewhere between Gulfport, Miss., and Galveston, Texas, on Monday. New Orleans is under mandatory evacuation. Even though it is possible the eye will pass west of New Orelans and Gustav could be weaker than Katrina, it could still be an even worse hit for New Orleans than last time -- the eastern side of the storm will have a greater storm surge due to counterclockwise rotation bringing south winds to push water inland, and keep in mind that New Orleans highest wind gust was 98 mph during Katrina, whose eye actually passed east of New Orleans. So a slight jog west or even slight weakening will not put New Orleans out of the woods. And there are lots of other communities along the Gulf Coast that could feel the wrath of winds well over 100 mph, rain measured in feet rather than inches, storm surge of 10 or more feet, and tornadoes.

Let's don't lose sight of Tropical Storm Hanna, which is now projected to take a turn toward the Southeast U.S. later this week and strengthen into a hurricane.

For the latest on Gustav and Hanna, go to the National Hurricane Center Web site.

It's not a good sign for the Gulf Coast when Hurricane Gustav is said to have weakened and still has 140 mph winds. Gustav did so when it crossed western Cuba, losing some of its eye structure and experience a very slight weakening of winds. But, as of early this morning, Gustav has re-emerged over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. We may see Gustav push into Category 5 status (155 mph-plus winds) today as it plies these warm waters, headed for a likely landfall between Biloxi, Miss., and Galveston, Texas, on Monday. It may weaken some before landfall, but will likely carry a large storm surge because of inertia from its stronger phase, and the shallow water over the continental shelf in the northern Gulf that mounds the water up higher.

Click on the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Gustav

UPDATE 4 PM: Gustav has intensified into an upper-end Category 4 hurricane with winds of 145 mph, still headed on a course that will take it across western Cuba, into the Gulf, and likely toward the Lousiana/Texas Gulf Coast area by Monday. END UPDATE

Hurricane Gustav wasted no time on its promise to become a dangerous Category 3 hurricane, now with 125 mph winds. Later today it will make landfall in western Cuba, but is crossing such a narrow part of the island nation that it probably will weaken only slightly, if at all, before resuming its course over very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. It is still forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast late Monday or early Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor 3 other areas of interest: Tropical Storm Hanna north of Puerto Rico, and two disturbances in the open Atlantic, one of which is rated as having a high risk of development into the next tropical depression. The next tropical storm in the Atlantic will be named Ike.

Gustav gets more organized in the Caribbean

Gustav has reclaimed the hurricane moniker with 75 mph winds and it is projected to rather rapidly propel across western Cuba toward the U.S. Gulf Coast between east Texas and Alabama, coming ashore as early as late Monday or early Tuesday. (Click here for the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center.) Meanhwhile, Tropical Storm Hanna is gradually strengthening in the Atlantic. New forecasts suggest Hanna will become a hurricane but may be pushed south at some point by high pressure to the north.

At this time, no direct effects from Gustav or Hanna are expected in the next week for Southwest Virginia, as the same high pressure that kept Fay at bay for a week should dominate the scene and deflect both of these systems. This map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows the low that was Gustav over Oklahoma by Thursday and Hanna (depicted here as a tropical depression ... that's debatable) southeast of Florida. Anything this far out is very tentative, and beyond this time frame, it is possible the high could lose its grip and allow either or both of these systems to move our way.

Taking a break from the tropical talk ... the cloudy, rainy weather has brought down the averages for what was already a much cooler August than last year's stiflingly hot one. On Wednesday, Roanoke's high of 65 beat by one degree the record for coolest high temperature on Aug. 27, previously set in 1937. Blacksburg tied a 45-year-old mark with a high of only 62. Roanoke's temperatures the past three days, highs and lows, have been 75/64, 65/60 and 70/61, when the average runs 84/62. As a result, Roanoke is almost a degree below normal in average temperature for the month at 74.1, which is a whopping 8 degrees below the average last August ended with. With three days of highs no higher than the low to mid 80s -- and that only if there's substantial sunshine --- and lows in the 60s expected to close out the month, this will likely go down as a slightly cooler than normal August overall, and a radical departure from last year's hottest month on record.

First off ... most of Virginia's southern half remains in moderate to severe drought according to today's new Drought Monitor map ... but this is based on data as of Tuesday morning before our soaking began. Expect to see the drought area significantly reduced in size and intensity next week. This government stream flow map stream flows above or much above normal across the area. Stream flow is a major component of drought status, and though the stream flows will settle some once the initial surge passes, they should still be strong enough to erode the drought status. My guess would be that much of southern Virginia will remain in "abnormally dry" because of the long-term drought.

Below in the extended entry is the National Weather Service-Blacksburg's final listing of rainfall results from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay. The amounts generally were 1-3 inches west of I-81, 3-7 inches east of I-81, with a few heavier amounts topping 8 inches. It was pretty darn close to what was forecast, perhaps just a hair more in the area along the Blue Ridge from Roanoke southward. This was pretty much what the doctor ordered, enough rain to refill streams and reservoirs in a major way, but not quite enough for flooding. It won't bring the long-term drought to an end, but it has put a sizeable dent in it.

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ENTRY UPDATED AT 11:30 AM TO REFLECT UPGRADING OF DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM HANNA

Meet Tropical Storm Gustav (lower left), a tropical depression that has recently become Tropical Storm Hanna (marked with the L) and you've already met Fay (clouds in upper left)

The Atlantic Ocean is suddenly Grand Central Station for potential tropical systems. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring no fewer than 5 tropical disturbances over the Atlantic as this photo shows ... and keep in mind that the cloudiness over the East Coast represents the remnants of a former tropical storm, Fay. Most prominent for our concerns are Tropical Storm Gustav in the Caribbean, and the new tropical depression that has since become Tropical Storm Hanna northeast of the Leeward Islands. If this goes anything close to what is forecast, by early next week we could have twin hurricane threats to the U.S., with Gustav nearing the Gulf Coast and Hanna making a turn westward toward the Southeast U.S. coast.

Meanwhile, expect low clouds, fog, drizzle and few rain showers to hang in today with the Fay's remnants and a cool air wedge from the northeast. The heaviest rain has moved east of the area, and it appears unlikely that enough sun will shine today to fire thunderstorms.

Wednesday evening's resurgence of rain along the Blue Ridge pushed Roanoke's official storm total over 4 inches, as a heavy downpour moved through the Roanoke Valley shortly after 8 p.m. Thursday looks to be a showery day, with maybe even some afternoon thunderstorms, especially if the sun manages to make an appearance. Moisture is still quite thick as the fading remainder of Fay's circulation whirls to our west, pulling up yet more moisture on south winds. Don't expect the widespread heavy rain like we got on Wednesday, but almost everyone will see some rain on Thursday, and a few places could see a lot of rain in a short time. A cold front on Friday will finally bounce Fay out of the way, but not before bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. We might see a few dry days late in weekend and early next week as we watch Gustav take aim on the Gulf Coast ... and possibly another tropical system flirting with the East Coast.

Below in the extended entry are official storm total rainfall amounts through 9 p.m. Wednesday:

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Just when it looked like we might be in for a few hours of no rain, showers have rapidly developed, spread out and increased in intensity in the same corridor from Roanoke south through Franklin County to Martinsville that has been frequented by bands of heavy rain through much of the day. The heaviest rain is occurring along the U.S. 220 corridor and moving northward, generally along the eastern side of the Blue Ridge. This is likely being caused by a combination of circulation from Fay's old center, now over eastern Kentucky, pulling a stream of moisture northward, and upslope effects of light southeast winds blowing uphill across the western Piedmont and onto the Blue Ridge. Radar estimates show rates of up to a half-inch an hour occurring. So it does look like the Roanoke Valley will be adding to its Fay-rain total this evening, possibly pushing our storm total over 4 inches. October 24-26 of last year was the last time we had more rain in a single event (6.10 inches).

Latest radar from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg

Area rain totals as of 3 p.m.

Tropical Storm Fay has delivered as promised, with its remnants dumping 2 to 6 inches of rain (a few higher amounts, a few lower amounts) on most of Southwest Virginia since the rain began during the day Tuesday. Of my last 25 blog entries, 24 have dealt with or mentioned Fay (or what would become Fay, in the case of my first one on Aug. 13 wondering "Is this tropical disturbance the next big thing?" I guess the answer was yes.) Fay made us wait an extra week ... instead of just beelining for us after making landfall in Florida, it got hung up by high pressure to the north, weaved and bobbed around Florida making 4 separate landfalls and dumping up to 26 inches of rain, then finally made its move our way this week.

We're not quite done with Fay yet. It's old circulation center is over eastern Kentucky, and is, appropriately enough, moving sluggishly northeastward, resisted by high pressure to the north. Fay is still spinning showers and bands of rain northward through the Carolinas toward us. They will be a little more dispersed, but the National Weather Service in Blacksburg still considers the threat of localized heavy rain serious enough to continue the flash flood watch until midnight. We will probably see some showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms resulting from Fay's moisture and remnant circulation into Thursday as well.

Fay will soon have to step aside for Gustav, which has temporarily weakened to a tropical storm after interacting with the Hispaniola land mass but is projected to be a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. New Orleans is already getting nervous.

Below, in the extended entry, is a listing of rainfall amounts across the area through 3 p.m.:

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