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Hail of 3/4 inch and slightly larger has been reported in parts of Patrick and Henry counties, the latter of which is under a severe thunderstorm warning until 8:45 p.m. A cold front, bringing a reinforcing shot of cool air to the region, has found just enough instability and moisture to kick off some storms from Southside Virginia south into North Carolina. This won't be indicative of the weather to come, though -- expect a long period of mild and dry weather, with some cool mornings, likely stretching well into next week.

Current National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

The coastal storm -- mostly non-tropical, therefore unnamed -- that moved inland late this past week brought a good rain to still-very-needy Southwest Virginia. Most areas got 1-3 inches over a 3-day period, with some heavier amounts, particularly in higher elevation areas that benefitted from upslope wind flow that not only made the rain heavier but kept it going more continuously. If we could get this kind of rain every 10 days or so (with some of it being snow in winter) from now through spring, we could enter next summer with no drought worries at all. Roanoke Regional Airport tallied 1.17 inches of rain Thursday through Saturday, with the heaviest part of it falling before dawn Saturday. We're still more than an inch below normal for the month.

Below in the extended entry is a National Weather Service listing of rainfall amounts from around Southwest and Southside Virginia for a 3-day period ending this afternoon:

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Hurricane Kyle is staying well off the coast of the United States tonight, but is likely to make landfall in Nova Scotia late Sunday or early Monday. It may be close enough to scrape eastern Maine -- hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are out for that area. It has been 17 years since the Maine coast has been under a hurricane watch -- that occurred for Hurricane Bob. Here's a page I found on the Internet with some other examples of hurricanes tha have affected Maine. While the waters are colder up that way, and tropical systems tend to lose some intensity, a fast-moving system can keep enough strength to be quite dangerous. So hurricanes can occur in the far northern areas of the East Coast, they just don't happen very often.

Saturday looks to be rainy, though I think we might see it start to break in the afternoon as this persistent pinwheel finally starts moving north. As I write this just after midnight, the rain has arrived again in Southwest Virginia after an evening lull, but the overall rain area is starting to look less solid and defined as it spins around the low west of Charlotte.

I would be remiss in not mentioning Tropical Storm Kyle, which formed from the disturbance that was near Hispaniola earlier in the week. Some early forecast models had the low affecting us now and Kyle tag-teaming, but that will not be the case. Kyle will head due north and stay well east of the U.S. except for possibly raking eastern Maine as it moves into Nova Scotia a few days from now.

Beyond the gradually less showery weekend, it looks like we'll have a warm early week and then a sharp cooldown headed into next weekend, which might bring us our coldest weather so far this fall season. More on that as it develops.

The gap in the rain that we've been experiencing in the Roanoke Valley may last a few more hours. The reason this has happened is that the center of the low pressure system has pivoted so far south and west that it is only circulating a few scatttered showers through the area. Really, we have only been on the fringe of the storm so far. The storm being so far south and west only means that the main body of the system is yet to come through, and that should happen overnight into Saturday morning as the low turns northeastward. The result will be a period of more focused rain, some of which could be heavy. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches have already occurred, with somewhat less to the north. Expect about an inch more, locally 2 or more, in most areas before the rain ends overnight Saturday.

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

Latest national/regional radar

The low-pressure system is well inland this morning, centered over northern South Carolina with its telltale swirl on radar. Roanoke is on the northern fringe of the system's northernmost band of showers. As the day progresses, the low will slowly drift northwest into western North Carolina and showers and steadier rain will inch farther northward. The storm is expected to linger through tonight and into much of Saturday as it ever so slowly moves north and then northeast. The rain probably won't be torrential but more showery with a heavy spurt or two. The National Weather Service in Blacksburg is projecting 1 to 2 inches of rain over most of the area through Saturday evening.

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

Latest national/regional radar

If you just showed me this radar image and gave me no other information, I would presume the inset radar grab at mid-evening showed a tropical storm or weak hurricane closing on the coast of the Carolinas. But the coastal storm remains an extratropical low, embedded along a cold front, and the National Hurricane Center now gives this system a low chance of becoming tropical before its circulation center makes landfall overnight. As we've said before, it's academic at this point. The coast is being hit by wind and waves, with some coastal flooding in the Outer Banks and power outages in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia. Not a big hit, but troublesome.

Rain began moving into Southwest Virginia shortly before dark, and off and on rain will continue as various bands move west from the spinning center. So far, the winds have not been excessive, though I'm sure someone on a mountaintop has got a few stout puffs. Our heaviest rain is likely to come Friday as the storm moves ashore and moves north into North Carolina, putting us in a vein of moisture being pulled north and west from the center. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is showing rainfall amounts over the next 3 days of 1.5 to 2 inches common in our area, with some locally heavier amounts. Rain will gradually taper to showers overnight Friday into Saturday, and should be almost entirely over by Sunday. Yes, it is moving a bit slower than earlier forecast, so Saturday could be wetter than earlier expected.

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

Comma-shaped low intensifies off Carolinas

The mid-morning satellite photo shows a classic comma-shaped cloud formation off the coast of the Carolinas, signalling the rapid intensificatoin of a coastal low -- at this point clearly non-tropical. This is pretty much a classic nor'easter for the Outer Banks and coastal regions of the Carolinas, northward into Tidewater and the Delmarva Peninsula. Were it winter and an Arctic air mass in place inland, we would be readying the snow shovels. But let's get back to the here and now, which is rain and wind.

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has raised a wind advisory for locations at or above 2,500 feet in elevation along the Blue Ridge because of the possibility of some 50 mph wind gusts later today and tonight as the low drifts westward. The pressure difference between the low and high pressure to the north will be channeling some pretty gusty winds against the higher terrain. Even in lower areas, a few wind gusts near 40 mph may occur.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center increases rainfall projections for our area

The system as a whole appears to be slower and heading westward just a tad farther south than some earlier forecasts. It is likely to come ashore in South Carolina rather than North Carolina, and hang on for us just a little longer as it slowly turns northward over the next 24-48 hours. One impact of that is an increase in rainfall projections for our region, now more in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, with isolated larger amounts. The rain will probably start a little later today than earlier projected, possibly holding off until evening in many areas, and may linger longer into Friday night. It may break off a bit more slowly on Saturday, though it still appears like only showers with less than a quarter inch additional rain, mostly in the morning.

The short take: This looks like an IDEAL rain for our drought-parched region, and it still doesn't look like it will make the weekend a total washout.

Keep an eye on the latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar and the national/regional radar mosaic ... and remember that the rain will be coming from the east this time, unlike most of our weather systems.

The Air Force has completed a reconnaissance mission on the storm system off the coast of the Carolinas and determined that the system does not have tropical characteristics. The flight found that the strongest winds were not near a tight central core but instead well to the northwest of the center, more like a non-tropical low pressure system. As expected beforehand, this is more nor'easter than hurricane, but that's largely an academic point, as the waves it will churn up along the coast will likely be equal or greater than some hurricanes. As you can see in the inset water vapor satellite image, the western extent of high clouds has reached Southwest Virginia. Moisture will slowly build overnight into Thursday morning in a very dry air mass, and rain is expected by late Thursday, continuing into Friday before gradually diminishing overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Northerly to northeasterly winds could get a bit gusty in our region, too, perhaps topping 40 mph on Thursday afternoon, especially in higher elevations. This is largely because of the difference in air pressure between a strong high to the north and the coastal low to the south.

Click here for the latest 3-day rainfall projection map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, showing generally about an inch of rain in our region between now and Saturday evening, the bulk of which is expected to fall in the 2-day period ending Friday evening.

Well, I wrote today in my short Weather Journal update about how we are probably about to get our first widespread rain in months not related to a tropical system. But lo and behold -- the National Hurricane Center is noting today that the developing system is showing some tropical characteristics and that a hurricane hunter aircraft will be sent to investigate. The major difference between a tropical system and a non-tropical low is where it's drawing its energy. A tropical system draws it's energy from the evaporation of very warm ocean water; a non-tropical system forms because of the juxtaposition of unlike air masses. A tropical system has a tight, warm inner core; a non-tropical low has a broader area of circulation, and is generally cooler. And then there are hybrid systems, showing characteristics of both, called "subtropical" systems. And then there are tropical systems that convert to non-tropical systems, called "extratropical" systems. This one may well pass through any or all of those categories. It still looks like a potent rainmaker for much of our region, especially along and east of the Blue Ridge, as a strong easterly to northeasterly fetch of wind draws abundant moisture off the Atlantic. So it's possible the system could become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm named Kyle or Laura (depending on whether it or the system just northeast of Hispaniola develops first), but either way it looks like a windy rainmaker for the East Coast west to the Appalachians Thursday and Friday. The setup reminds me a little bit of Tropical Storm Tammy back in October 2005. It too was sort of a hybrid storm on the borderline between tropical and non-tropical, hurling a shield of rain westward as it spun off the coast of the Carolinas. I remember that one well because it soaked Virginia for 3 days before my wedding, finally relenting just two hours before the ceremony.