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Comma-shaped low intensifies off Carolinas

The mid-morning satellite photo shows a classic comma-shaped cloud formation off the coast of the Carolinas, signalling the rapid intensificatoin of a coastal low -- at this point clearly non-tropical. This is pretty much a classic nor'easter for the Outer Banks and coastal regions of the Carolinas, northward into Tidewater and the Delmarva Peninsula. Were it winter and an Arctic air mass in place inland, we would be readying the snow shovels. But let's get back to the here and now, which is rain and wind.

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has raised a wind advisory for locations at or above 2,500 feet in elevation along the Blue Ridge because of the possibility of some 50 mph wind gusts later today and tonight as the low drifts westward. The pressure difference between the low and high pressure to the north will be channeling some pretty gusty winds against the higher terrain. Even in lower areas, a few wind gusts near 40 mph may occur.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center increases rainfall projections for our area

The system as a whole appears to be slower and heading westward just a tad farther south than some earlier forecasts. It is likely to come ashore in South Carolina rather than North Carolina, and hang on for us just a little longer as it slowly turns northward over the next 24-48 hours. One impact of that is an increase in rainfall projections for our region, now more in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, with isolated larger amounts. The rain will probably start a little later today than earlier projected, possibly holding off until evening in many areas, and may linger longer into Friday night. It may break off a bit more slowly on Saturday, though it still appears like only showers with less than a quarter inch additional rain, mostly in the morning.

The short take: This looks like an IDEAL rain for our drought-parched region, and it still doesn't look like it will make the weekend a total washout.

Keep an eye on the latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar and the national/regional radar mosaic ... and remember that the rain will be coming from the east this time, unlike most of our weather systems.