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First, let's look at the short term. Look where the blue and green circles extend for the period from Thursday evening to Friday evening on the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center's early Wednesday evening heavy snowfall risk chart? The blue indicates a 10-39 percent chance of 4-plus inches of snow, while the green indicates a 40-69 percent chance of 4-plus inches. This is from another round of upslope snow as a new cold front reinforces the wintry temperatures Thursday night and Friday. Though this one doesn't look quite as potent as that of Monday and Tuesday (less upper-atmospheric support, less moisture), it does look like those West Virginia snow targets like Quinwood (17 inches on Tuesday) and Snowshoe Mountain (31 inches since Saturday) are in line for another decent dumping to freshen the snowpack. Considering there may be another round of upslope snow early next week, I may have to return to the areas with my snowshoes! Meanwhile, do not be surprised to see snowflakes in the air in the Roanoke and New River valleys Thursday night or early Friday, and some spotty light accumulation can't be entirely ruled out.

Looking farther out ... the indications continue to be that the general pattern of the jet stream dipping south in the East will linger much of the next two weeks.  The Climate Prediction Center is actually forecasting the likelihood of below-normal temperatures to expand over the southeastern half of the nation between Thanksgiving and the first week of December. Overall, this looks to be a dry pattern, but we will need to keep our eyes open for a rogue disturbance rolling through the jet stream across the Southeast in such a manner that it could draw up some Gulf of Mexico moisture over and into cold air at the surface. While intermittent bouts of upslope snow showers are likely to occur, it's something of that nature that could set off the season's first areawide winter weather event in Southwest Virginia. There is nothing firm on the horizon yet ... but let's keep some eye out to Thanksgiving weekend and the first week of December, when forecast models have hinted at some possibilities.