2008.11.27
Let's keep an eye on the weekend situation
We've been expecting precipitation (primarily rain) over the weekend for several days, but the whole situation is looking a lot more complicated than we were thinking earlier, with multiple disturbances, phasing jet streams, and borderline temperatures across our area. I'm still thinking this is going to be a mostly rain event in our area, maybe starting as sleet or snow late Saturday or early Sunday, with the low-pressure system passing west of us and drawing in warmer air aloft over somewhat-above-freezing air at the surface. But there is just enough uncertainty and intrigue in how it may come together to keep a wary eye on it. I'll post a little more detail on it as it comes into better focus.
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I've been watching the models and it seems to lean rain at the outset, with snow on the backside as the colder air fills back in. But a couple of the forecasters I've watched have said they think the low will be more south and east, meaning snow up the Appalachian spine from TN to the northeast. If that were to hold, we'd get a heck of an early season snow...but I think those guys tend to overplay big storms in what they predict. Nevertheless, based on the early season trends, this is going to be an active winter and if this storm doesn't bring us snow, we'll have plenty more chances.
Comment by Other John — November 27, 2008 @ 4:38 pm
I think the front edge could be frozen if the moisture punches into cold air fast enough ... and then the typical snow showers on the back side ... it's the middle part where there will be the most moisture that is in question ... I would lean mostly rain at this point, but it wouldn't take much of a shift to change things ...
Comment by kevinmyatt — November 27, 2008 @ 5:38 pm
The latest model runs seem to keep the moisture more east than the runs earlier today, so it seems that the models are still highly in flux, as usual. It's still a few days out, so we'll see.
Comment by Other John — November 27, 2008 @ 6:56 pm
A lot of the model runs are hinting at a "Miller B" kind of scenario, where a low runs up the west side of the Appalachians, then transfers energy to a new low off the Delmarva Peninsula ... historically, that's not a big snow producer here, unless there is a LOT of cold air dammed in advance of it, and then we usually get several inches of snow quickly that turns to ice ... don't think the cold is going to be established deeply enough to pull off one of those "crunchy storm" ice on top of snow kinda systems ...
Comment by kevinmyatt — November 27, 2008 @ 7:58 pm
I'm fairly certain that this won't be the one. The cold air just isn't there.
With that in mind, the models are all over the place so time will tell.
Comment by Brandon R. — November 27, 2008 @ 9:39 pm
It is still NOVEMBER ... it would be a pretty unusual event to get cold air damming sufficient this far south for a signficant winter storm ... every passing week this time of year increases the probability as the sun-angle lessens and the daytime decreases (see Dec. 6, 2002, and Dec. 6, 2003 for consecutive-year winter storms that plopped down several inches of snow followed by sleet and ice) ... I think the best shot for significant snow out of this system would be some kind of intense band of overruning moisture on the front end Sunday morning that could overrun cold air at the surface, create evaporational cooling to chill out all layers of the atmosphere, and plop down 1-3 inches very quickly ... but it looks more like the moisture will come in slowly and things will gradually get too warm for anything more than a few wet flakes or some sleet before the 35-40-degree rain sets in ...
Comment by kevinmyatt — November 27, 2008 @ 10:27 pm
Let us all be prepared for significant snow. I remember the Thanksgiving weekend of 1974....I had to drive to Wytheville from Richlands that Saturday morning, and by the time I left in the late afternoon, it had started snowing pretty heavily. By the time I got back to Richlands, there was a foot of snow on the ground.
I am sure you can find all that data, Kevin.
So....get ready.
Comment by AJ — November 28, 2008 @ 9:38 am
Actually, that far southwest tip of Virginia around Richlands stands a pretty good chance of getting at least a few inches of snow on the backside of the storm in the wraparound snow showers on Monday ...
Comment by kevinmyatt — November 28, 2008 @ 3:41 pm
Kevin,
I lived in Grundy,Va,..not too far from Richlands. We got PLENTY of snow there. They seem to get more snow than we do on a regular basis. I've seen Richlands be impassable plenty of times in a very short period of time. I always watch their weather when we have a possible winter weather event on the way here in Blacksburg. Funny thing is that when I was getting ready to move here to the NRV everyone kept telling me how I'd be buried in snow here in the winter. I've been here eight years and have yet to see that happen!! Let's hope we get some good winter weather in place this weekend into Monday and if not..hey it's fun to see ANY snow in the forecast this early in the season. I'm hoping it bodes well for the winter.
Comment by Angela — November 29, 2008 @ 5:59 pm