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Up to 9 inches fell in overnight/morning snow event

The following is a list of snowfall amounts, in descending order of accumulation, reported by the National Weather Service in Blacksburg shortly after 3 p.m. These reports were from a variety of sources at various times throughout the day, and as usual in snow events with a signficant upslope component, the amounts were somewhat streaky and spotty. So it's possible that these amounts may seem larger or smaller than what you got a mile or two away.  (And, before you ask, Roanoke got only a trace of snow today, so the first 1-inch snowfall still remains out there for all you contest entrants).

Mouth of Wilson (Grayson County) 9 inches
Tazewell (Tazewell County) 8 inches
Creston, N.C. (Ashe County) 7 inches
Burkes Garden (Tazewell County) 6 inches
Flat Top, W.Va. (Mercer County) 5 inches
Marion (Smyth County) 4.5 inches
Sugar Grove (Smyth County) 4 inches
Tannersville (Tazewell County) 4 inches
West Jefferson, N.C. (Ashe County) 3.5 inches
Fries (Grayson County) 3 inches
Wytheville (Wythe County) 3 inches
Bluefiled, W.Va. (Mercer County) 3 inches 
Boone, N.C. (Watauga County) 2.7 inches
Crows (Alleghany County) 2 inches
Warm Springs (Bath County) 2 inches
Bland (Bland County) 2 inches
Renicks Valley, W.Va. (Greenbrier County) 2 inches
Princeton, W.Va. (Mercer County) 2 inches
Floyd (Floyd County) 1.5 inches
Rich Patch (Alleghany County) 1 inch
Kire (Giles County) 1 inch
Blacksburg (Montgomery County) 1 inch
Pulaski (Pulaski County) 1 inch
Saltville (Smyth County) 1 inch
Todd, N.C. (Ashe County) 1 inch

Snow showers drying up

This round of snow showers seems to be winding down as drier air continues to filter in. Don't be surprised to see a quick flurry or even a briefly heavy burst of snow here or there this afternoon, but for the most part, this round of snow is over. With the help of an upper-level disturbance, this was a bigger event than the early week system for some areas from the New River Valley southward, but wasn't as big for places north and west. I'll post some final accumulation numbers when they become available.

Snow showers add to totals in areas west, southwest of Roanoke

Snows produced by upslope winds over the mountains, streaking southeastward, have added to those produced by an upper-level disturbance that moved through overnight, especially in the region from the far Southwest Virginia coalfields eastward through the Wytheville area and the southern New River Valley, where many places have 2-4 inches of snow with as much as 6 at Burkes Garden. It looks like another 1-2 inches in most of the New River Valley, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the flurries pick up and some locally heavier snow showers even in the Roanoke Valley later today, as the radar trends seem to show more of the snow squall streaks headed this direction, though probably little in the way of accumulation. The sunshine may act to create a wee bit of instability in the very cold air aloft ... I noticed some bubbly looking white cumulus clouds as I went out to walk my dog in some light flurries this morning. Those could be indicative of some instability-enhanced heavier snow showers developing

Much of the area west of Roanoke is under a winter weather advisory. 

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

Precipitation increasing on radar, and it's not upslope stuff

Radar, both regional (inset at left, larger version linked here) and local (6:30 p.m. radar grab linked here), shows streaks of precipitation developing. This precipitation is NOT upslope, but rather caused by an upper-level disturbance diving southeast on the jet stream with a new cold front. It will be interesting to see if this band holds together over the next several hours ... it is not expected to. Precipitation could be a little heavier across the area if atmospheric synoptics are the trigger rather than upslope ... though some of that precipitation may be rain or even "white rain," the slang term for snow with temperatures above freezing. Later tonight, as the cold front passes and strong northwest winds kick up, the upslope snow machine will get going again. Much of eastern West Virginia is under either a winter weather advisory or winter storm warning, with 2-5 inches of snow possible, especially in the higher elevations. Some light snow accumulation is possible farther east, into the New River Valley and the counties west of Roanoke. This map from the weather service's Blacksburg office shows the 1-inch line roughly near the Virginia-West Virginia line, with the less-than-1-inch accumulation line stretching from Galax to between Blacksburg and Roanoke to west of Lexington. So, call it snow showers for the New River Valley and a few flurries for the Roanoke Valley ... unless this diving upper-level disturbance is a bit more potent than expected.

Click here for the latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

The short and long: More upslope snow, more chilly days

First, let's look at the short term. Look where the blue and green circles extend for the period from Thursday evening to Friday evening on the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center's early Wednesday evening heavy snowfall risk chart? The blue indicates a 10-39 percent chance of 4-plus inches of snow, while the green indicates a 40-69 percent chance of 4-plus inches. This is from another round of upslope snow as a new cold front reinforces the wintry temperatures Thursday night and Friday. Though this one doesn't look quite as potent as that of Monday and Tuesday (less upper-atmospheric support, less moisture), it does look like those West Virginia snow targets like Quinwood (17 inches on Tuesday) and Snowshoe Mountain (31 inches since Saturday) are in line for another decent dumping to freshen the snowpack. Considering there may be another round of upslope snow early next week, I may have to return to the areas with my snowshoes! Meanwhile, do not be surprised to see snowflakes in the air in the Roanoke and New River valleys Thursday night or early Friday, and some spotty light accumulation can't be entirely ruled out.

Looking farther out ... the indications continue to be that the general pattern of the jet stream dipping south in the East will linger much of the next two weeks.  The Climate Prediction Center is actually forecasting the likelihood of below-normal temperatures to expand over the southeastern half of the nation between Thanksgiving and the first week of December. Overall, this looks to be a dry pattern, but we will need to keep our eyes open for a rogue disturbance rolling through the jet stream across the Southeast in such a manner that it could draw up some Gulf of Mexico moisture over and into cold air at the surface. While intermittent bouts of upslope snow showers are likely to occur, it's something of that nature that could set off the season's first areawide winter weather event in Southwest Virginia. There is nothing firm on the horizon yet ... but let's keep some eye out to Thanksgiving weekend and the first week of December, when forecast models have hinted at some possibilities.

It was Roanoke's earliest measurable snow in at least 13 years

Whether or not you had that much at your house, the official Roanoke snow measurement on Tuesday, November 18, was 0.4 inch. Checking back over daily weather records, snowfall tallies are frustratingly spotty since the mid 1990s, but it's safe to say there hasn't been a measurable snow this early in the 2000s ... the only November snow of that time frame was on November 23, 2005, also .4 inch (it was a wet snow on the evening before Thanksgiving that mostly accumulated at high elevations.) Though different sources confuse the issue, it appears Roanoke received some measurable snow -- possibly as much as 0.4 inch -- on November 13, 1995. Before that, Roanoke got 2 inches of snow on November 11, 1987. So Tuesday's skiff was likely Roanoke's earliest measurable snow in either 13 or 21 years.

A journey to knee-deep snow in mid-November

Give a weather geek a little free time, and he's going to end up where it's the most extreme. When it comes to upslope snow events in the National Weather Service-Blacksburg's warning area, that would almost always be Quinwood, W.Va., in western Greenbrier County. I headed that way, arriving on some slushy/snowy highways at about 2 p.m. When I got there, a heavy snow squall was ongoing, with about 1/8 mile visibility in wind-whipped, large conglomerated snowflakes. I have been there a few times before, since I know about a town park that has a nice hiking trail. But the roads were a little too dicey this time, and I didn't try to get to the park. I parked near the post office and walked around the town a bit, eventually reaching the small hiking trail for a short walk with my dog, Cindy. My dog is a knee-high brown mutt, but she was up to her neck at times in the snow, which was reported at 14 inches about an hour after I was there (by 7 p.m., it went up to 17 inches).  The snow whipped around for a while as I sank up over my boots (should have brought my snowshoes ... I would have if I had had time for longer hike) and Cindy more or less swam in the fluffy snow (with the long retractable leash as sort of a lifeline ... or a means of pulling me into hip-deep snow in a ditch once). But almost like a switch had been flipped, this particular snow squall passed and the sun actually poked out. The half-inch or so that had accumulated in a few minutes turned slushy and wet on the asphalt, giving me a good chance to slip out before the next snow squall slickened things up again.

Click below for some larger photos from Quinwood:

* Post office;
* dog in the snow;
* dog's path through the snow;
* snowplow;
* snow on trees;
* drifts at stop sign

On the drive up, I encountered flurries throughout much of Botetourt and Alleghany counties, then hit heavier snow showers just west of Covington. The snow broke off and the sun came out around White Sulphur Springs and Lewisburg, W.Va., but then I hit a wall of snow as I drove west and then northwest into western Greenbrier County. A fascinating afternoon with a particularly early and significant upslope snowfall event, enhanced by some upper-atmospheric energy and even some instability.

Below are a few snowfall amounts around the area as reported to the National Weather Service in Blacksburg today. Keep in mind that these reports were at different times through the day, and due to the spotty and streaky nature of the snow, amounts often varied within just a few miles. 

* Quinwood, W.Va.,  14 inches
* Tazewell,  5 inches
* Alum Ridge, 3 inches
* Dublin,  2.5 inches
* Wytheville, 2 inches
* Radford, 2 inches
* Mountain Lake, 2 inches
* Hot Springs, 2 inches
* Fairlawn, 1.5 inches
* Blacksburg, 1 inch
* Peaks of Otter, 1 inch
* Paint Bank, 1 inch
* Roanoke   0.4 inch

A complete listing can be found by clicking here

A little bit of snow for your Tuesday morning

Many of you may be dusting some snow off your cars this morning. Even the Roanoke Valley saw a few bands of brief heavy snow move through in the early morning hours, collecting on grass and car tops in some places (it was a near-whiteout for a few minutes about 2:40 a.m. at my residence in Roanoke County just south of the city). In the New River Valley, some locations got around an inch, with more in the higher elevations and on west-facing slopes. Meanwhile, higher elevations of eastern West Virginia are headed toward a foot -- Quinwood in western Greenbrier County had 5 inches before midnight. Snow showers and flurries may occur off and on through the morning in the Roanoke and New River valleys, and may well continue into tonight farther west. Be careful for slick spots, especially west of Roanoke.

Drop a comment below and let me know what it looks like near you.

Best chance of heavier snow: Midnight to morning rush

The farther west you are in Southwest Virginia, the better your chances of seeing a white ground come Monday morning. The National Weather Service in Blacksburg is a little concerned, as noted in its forecast discussion, that there could be enough upper-level atmospheric support for snow tonight that some brief moderate to heavy bands might even move into the New River Valley and possibly even the Roanoke Valley near the morning rush hour. There's even this ominous wording in the discussion:

A GOOD BURST OF SNOW WITH THIS MESOCALE BAND COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE ROA/BCB/PSK CORRIDOR.

The mesoscale band refers to the possibility of an upper-level disturbance triggering something a little larger and heavier than the upslope stuff, and ROA/BCB/PSK is Roanoke-Blacksburg-Pulaski.

So there may be an outside chance at that first 1-incher of the season tonight ... but it's not likely in the Roanoke Valley, with the Roanoke Regional Airport being what counts for the snow contest (official Roanoke snowfall has been measured at nearby WDBJ, Channel 7, in recent years). Many of you in the New River Valley and locations west of Roanoke will wake up to a dusting or a little more, and some of you on west-facing slopes nearer to West Virginia may get a few inches.

Up to 8 inches may fall in eastern West Virginia

Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are now in effect for most of eastern West Virginia, just over the border from Virginia. As much as 8 inches of snow is expected to fall in elevations above 3,000 feet, with lesser amounts in lower elevations. Snow showers and flurries are expected to occur in Virginia, as well, and a few areas west of Roanoke may see a dusting here and there by Tuesday morning.  Click here for the latest advisories and snowfall forecast from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg.

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You are currently browsing the The Weather Journal: Weather news, information and explanation from The Roanoke Times’ Kevin Myatt - Roanoke.com weblog archives for November, 2008.

About this blog

    Mug of Kevin Myatt

    Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."

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Comments

    • Zach: Jus somethig interesting here, - ridges in Highland County are reporting up to 1″ of snow, with 1-2 more...
    • Other John: I wound up driving through a lot of rain last night on the way back to the area, though thankfully it...
    • Other John: Watching the latest update, it’s up to CAT 2 and the Weather Channel folks are showing the low...
    • Wanda: Wishing you well with your family…Take care.
    • Kevin Myatt: By the way … there were 261 entries in the snowfall prediction contest, 50 more than last year...