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2009 dawns cold. Under full sunshine, it will struggle to make 40 today. 

It doesn't look like an earlier expected precipitation threat will materialize on Friday or Saturday. Early next week, though, things could get interesting, depending on the level of cold air available when a series of weak disturbances and overrunning precipitation arrive.

In the meantime, if you haven't seen it already, take a look back at some of the big weather events of 2008.

Here's to some meteorological blilss for everyone in 2009!

The wind advisory was upgraded to a high wind warning this morning for Southwest Virginia along and west of the Blue Ridge, including the Roanoke and New River valleys. During the last hour, a wind gust of 59 mph was reported at Roanoke Regional Airport earlier this morning. It doesn't look to be the same frequency and intensity of gusts as the Feb. 10 windstorm, but still there will be some trees, limbs and power lines downed by the wind in a few locations today; there already have been many power outages. My lights have been blinking some in southern Roanoke County.

Follow the latest warnings and advisories on the National Weather Service-Blacksburg's current events page.

It's very interesting to see how the temperatures have danced around overnight, looking at Roanoke's hour by hour reports. It was 38 at 1 a.m. under clear skies and calm winds, but then shot up to 50 in two hours as downsloping west winds ahead of the cold front brought in a surge of mild air. After peaking at 53, the cold front passed, the winds switched to a more northwesterly angle, and the temperature fell to 41. The airport was even reporting a little snow as of a few minutes ago ... a few flurries and snow showers are possible today, but nothing significant.

You may have heard the wind roaring through the trees and shaking some things last night behind a Pacific cold front. We're going to get another round of gusty winds overnight and during the day Wednesday as a strong Arctic cold front pushes through the area. A wind advisory is out from midnight to 9 p.m. Wednesday for most of Southwest Virginia west of the Blue Ridge; a high wind warning is in effect for those especially high-elevation areas in Carroll and Grayson counties. This will be a decidely colder blast of air that will bring seasonable winter chill back to our region, with lows in the teens and 20s and highs in the 30s and 40s. A few snow showers are possible on Wednesday, especially in the favored upslope areas of eastern West Virginia. By Friday, some freezing rain and sleet may be possible as moisture with a new storm system advances into some of this cold air ... though the low pressure system passing to the north will likely draw enough mild, moist Gulf air to push things above freezing pretty quickly. Expect to see several shots of cold air like this over the next couple of weeks as our pattern transitions into something a little more wintry.

Follow the latest on the National Weather Service-Blacksburg Web site.

The next couple of afternoons will be similarly mild to what we've the past few days, with highs in the 50s, maybe even low 60s. Almost perfectly timed with the arrival of the new year, a new cold front will initiate seasonal cold for us by New Year's Eve. It doesn't look like a period of frigid air, at least initially, but enough that the next 2 or 3 storm systems may all bear watching for some winter weather threat. The first arrives Saturday. A few model runs on Sunday looked cold and wintry with it, but it still looks likely to travel too far north of us for a serious winter storm threat. Specifics may vary this week, and perhaps more importantly is watching the overall pattern for the next couple of weeks, whether it will allow for a wintry period or quickly switch back to something milder. Definitely, we're headed into a colder period starting later this week, but big questions remain as to its staying power, largely because features over the Pacific do not appear to be conducive right now to an extended period of cold weather and wintry precipitation. But everything is in flux, so we'll see how it shakes out.

This is what's coming at us for Sunday ... though it probably won't look quite this fierce. Today, this squall line produced more than 100 wind damage reports in the nation's mid-section, but there were only a few tornado reports in northeast Missouri and far northwest Illinois (areas that were seeing ice and snow just a few days ago, and will again soon). A Pacific cold front is plowing into mild, moist air that is built in ahead of it, and that is resulting in some winter thunderstorms. Do not be surrpised to hear a rumble or two on Sunday with a few of the more vigorous showers, but overall lack of instability and upper dynamics will probably not allow for severe storms in our region. Still, highs in the upper 50s and 60s are likely.

This front is a step toward pushing out the unseasonably mild weather, but a real change to more seasonable cold won't come until about New Year's Day as the atmospheric plumbing shifts around a bit and some Arctic air begins to drain in from Canada. There is a weekend storm system we'll have to keep a close watch on to see if it can throw moisture into cold air for wintry precipitation. Still several days of details to monitor on that.

Some very good meteorologists are arguing with each other on some online weather bulletin boards about what is about to happen in January. What is fairly well agreed upon is that high pressure in the North Atlantic is gradually building westward toward Greenland. When high pressure sets up shop there, it is called a Greenland block, and that tends to cause the jet stream to buckle southward behind it into the eastern U.S., allowing colder air to move farther south and storm systems to dive farther south. This is called the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, from which we get a majority of our significant winter storms. The problem is that the pattern over the Pacific isn't lining up in concert, with low pressure in the northern Pacific threatening to continue blasting a mild jet stream far to the north across the U.S. So there is a lot of confusion and dissent over what is about to happen as these weather features interact with each other.

Suffice it to say, though, that there appears to be at least a window for colder weather and possible winter precipitation during the first week of the new year. Whether that pattern sets up for a while, or breaks down quickly, remains questionable at this time.

Some forecast models have been showing moisture and cold air intersecting near us around the Jan. 2-3 time frame. While there is some potential for a winter storm around that date, the odds are still better that it would be more of a north-tracking storm that could bring sleet/ice/rain rather than a south-tracking storm for primarily snow.

All of this is subject to change. The next few weeks could be very interesting, though, as different major weather factors interact for what could a variable forecast. I'm thinking we're still a few weeks away from the peak of our winter locally. It may take some time for the proper pattern to build in.

In the ongoing tale of zigzagging temperatures, Friday will be a damp and chilly day with some rain showers and temperatures stubbornly climbing into the upper 30s and low 40s. Some freezing rain may be possible early in the day in a few spots, but it probably won't amount to too much. Then it's mild again for Saturday and Sunday (mid 50s to lower 60s) and only a little cooler through the middle of next week. It's after that when it may get at least seasonably cold again, and questions grow regarding a pattern change.

A return to wintry weather is indeed looking more likely as we move to the start of 2009 a week down the road. But not now. Expect highs in the 50s today, a brief retreat into the 40s on Friday, and then possibly a day or two in the 60s over the weekend as a new storm system to our west sweeps in warmer air. I'll take a closer look at some of the possibilities ahead over the weekend.

 Here's what's coming our way tonight, though it probably won't be quite as hefty looking when it arrives. Still, expect some vigorous showers overnight as a "cold" front (using the term loosely; it'll still be pretty mild behind it) pushes a plume of moisture eastward for our Christmas Eve. The milder temperatures across much of the South are going to set the stage for what could be a potent bout of severe weather Friday and Saturday, likely centered over Arkansas -- I shared one of my Christmas severe weather memories from my Arkansas childhood in today's Weather Journal column.

And, yes, as a couple of commenters have posted in another entry (and I briefly commented on, too) ... there are growing signs of what could be a major pattern shift near the start of the new year. And this pattern shift, if it transpires, would give our region a shot at some real winter-type weather to start 2009. (The Climate Prediction Center is starting to buy in -- check out the new 8-14-day temperature map released today, depicting the first week of January)  I'm still saying "could be" and "if" for now. Years of underachieving winters have made me something of a Scrooge when it comes to upcoming winter weather potential.

For now ... Merry Christmas!

Watch the showers move in on National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar or on national mosaic radar

The winter weather advisory has been expanded to include much of Southwest Virginia, including the Roanoke and New River valleys, as patchy freezing rain and sleet are causing slick travel here and there. This is the leading edge of a new round of warmth and moisture overrunning shallow cold air at the surface, which will be pushed out on Wednesday. But the moisture and cold air have overlapped just enough for some dreaded ice in a few areas. Roanoke is sitting at 36 degrees, safely above freezing for now, but some heavier precipitation could drag the temperature to the freezing mark, as the surface air is dry and any moisture falling through it will induce radiational cooling. Still, it looks like the worst threats of ice will be in outlying areas, particularly higher elevations.

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