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UPDATE 7:40 PM: A winter weather advisory has been issued for Craig, Botetourt, Alleghany and Rockbridge counties to the north of Roanoke. An area of freezing rain and sleet moving out of West Virginia may bring light glazing to that area in the next few hours. END UPDATE

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar shows patches of precipitation spreading into parts of Southwest Virginia and neighboring states. Temperatures are near freezing or only a few degrees above freezing. As this moisture continues streaming in, patchy freezing rain and sleet may develop, and with a couple of days of very cold water, some road surfaces may develop icy patches. Something to keep an eye out for if you are driving tonight in the area. The weather service has issued a winter weather advisory for Grayson and Carroll counties to our south, where precipitation is already occurring in high elevations, at that could expand if the precipitation becomes widespread enough in regions that are cold enough to support ice. If you do get a little sleet or glazing, it will be the closest you get to a white Christmas this year. We'll probably be well into the 50s by this time on Christmas Eve.

If you haven't already, check out Jeff Sturgeon's article in the paper today about some Roanokers getting a little antsy for a "real" snow. (You may recognize the graphic of Roanoke Valley snowfall with the article, both online and in print ... it was first created for a column of mine in 2006 about how area seasonal snow is all over the chart, and has now been updated.) I know many of you who email me and post on here feel their pain. Though temperatures bottomed out at 15 in Roanoke this morning and at 8 in Blackburg this morning, according some preliminary numbers, do not expect the next precipiation-bearing storm on Wednesday to yield snow for Christmas. In fact, it may push close to 60 on Christmas Eve -- remember that it was in the 60s as recently as Friday night. The storm systems traveling north of us continue to sweep in warm air with each new round of moisture. Until the storm track changes to something south of us, don't expect much in the way of snow for Southwest Virginia. In my little Weather Journal update today, I described it this way: moisture pushes out the cold air, and cold air pushes out the moisture.

We've been bouncing between mild and chilly lately, often weirdly. What we haven't seen much of lately is really cold weather. That will change as a cold front pushes through today, and cold northwest winds bring true Arctic air. Lows tonight and again Monday night will likely be in the teens almost everywhere, maybe even a few single digits in those more isolated, frigid valley locations. The cold air might catch up with enough of the moisture today for some snow showers, so don't be surrpised to see a few fly by today. The process will be reversed by Tuesday night: Can the moisture catch up to the cold air? We'll examine that in better detail as we get closer.

The breezy warmth finally arrived in Roanoke this afternoon, pushing the temperature to almost 70 (68 at 5 p.m.) after upper 40s and low 50s dankness hung in until mid-afternoon (at 2 p.m., it was in the low to mid 60s in the New River Valley and in the low 50s in Roanoke). A new cold front will pass through a little later, but in the meantime,  gusty west winds behind today's warm front will continue through the evening -- a wind advisory is in effect for much of Southwest Virginia due to the threat of some wind gusts topping 50 mph, especially on ridge tops.

Now, let's confuse things even more. The Roanoke and New River valleys are scraping the southern edge of a threat region for ice overnight Saturday into early Sunday, as shown on this Hydrometeorological Prediction Center map. Cold air building in from the northeast during that time frame will drop temperatures back into the 30s, and maybe into the low 30s along Interstate 81 to our north. At this time, it is expected that Roanoke and probably most of the New River Valley will escape with temperatures just a little too warm for ice. Spotty ice will be more likely at the higher elevations along the Blue Ridge, and in the counties north of us. Instead, we are due for a soaking rain, with widespread 1-inch-plus amounts. Behind this storm will come one of the coldest shots of air we've seen this season so far, with lows possibly in the teens a night or two early in the week. Another storm approaches Tuesday, and the question with it will be whether any of its moisture will arrive before the next shot of cold air can leave.

As long as the storm systems keep traveling just north of us, we can expect this bizarre up-and-down temperature pattern to continue. Big snow events will be unlikely, but we are playing the roulette wheel for possible ice if we keep bringing warm surges aloft on top of cold intrusions at the surface. This time, the timing will probably be a little off, once again.

OK, so here's the silver lining in the very gray cloud that has engulfed us. Recent rainfall is making a serious dent in the drought, and may at least temporarily get us removed from official drought status by Christmas. As you can see on the inset Drought Monitor map (issued Thursday) at the left (bigger look, click here), the edge between the yellow area of "abnormally dry" or minor drought and the light orange area of "moderate drought" splits the Roanoke Valley roughly in half. Regions to the west remain in moderate drought, including the New River Valley, while all the white counties out east have been removed from drought status, based on the National Drought Mitigation Center analysis of rainfall, soil moisture content, stream flow, etc. The darker colors of severe drought in far Southwest Virginia are gone, and the overall area of drought is clearly shrinking from where it was just a couple of weeks ago. But take a look at what's coming down the road over the weekend: Widespread 1.5-2.5 inches over Southwest Virginia, if this linked map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center proves correct. And even further down the road, from the Climate Prediction Center, in the 6-10-day period, check out where the forecast for the best rain chances lines up. Right up and down the Appalachians in some of the country's driest areas, relative to normal, the last couple of years. It will probably take months of rainy storm systems (and perhaps a big snow or two) to restore the region entirely out of long-term dryness, but finally, finally, we appear to be in a weather situation where we're making some serious catch-up on needed rainfall.

Here's a link to an article and a photo regarding today's snow in Las Vegas ... its biggest in 29 years.  New Orleans, Las Vegas ... maybe Miami is next.

As we continue to ride the line between warm and cold, today is the day for chilly, damp air from the northeast to wedge down the east side of the Appalachians, making things dank. On Friday, a warm front will surge north and it will probably blast into the 60s. On Saturday, cold air returns from the north and will bring things close to freezing when rain starts late Saturday night. On Sunday, warm air will lift northward again, making sure everything falls as rain. On Monday, cold air surges again from the west, bringing blustery conditions and a chance of snow showers. Anyone see a pattern here?

A dense fog advisory is in effect tonight for much of the area along and southeast of Interstate 81, including the Roanoke and New River valleys. It's a terrible night to be driving or flying anywhere.

Though the heavier rain amounts are expected just west of the commonwealth, our part of Virginia is due for 1-2 additional inches of rain over the next 5 days if the newest rainfall forecast map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center pans out. Most of that rain is slated for days 4 and 5 (as the map linked here shows), beginning late Saturday extending through Sunday, when a strong low pressure system appears likely to pass north of us. A series of the these storm systems, spreading moisture over cooler air at the surface, are expected to move through, with one on Friday poised to dump widespread heavy snow on the Great Lakes and Northeast, with many areas getting 4 inches or more (and a 40 percent chance of 12 inches-plus from southern Michigan across much of New York state) as we get a few showers out of it. Those same areas may well get clocked again by heavy snow when the next storm pulls through late in the weekend. Our winter weather threat over the weekend will be confined to some chance of freezing rain on the front end early Sunday and scattered snow showers on the back end very late Sunday into Monday. Yet another storm will be due to take a similar path toward Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Anybody who wants a white Christmas will be rooting for a more southerly route and colder air holding in for that storm. From this distance, it looks very similar to this weekend's storm, with more cold rain followed by snow showers with a new shot of cold air near Christmas Day.

Today, Thursday and Friday are going to be pretty mild, maybe topping 60 by Friday, with some scattered showers around. Saturday will be a tad cooler with showers ... maybe not all that bad for the often inclement-weather-plagued Stagg Bowl in Salem. But by Sunday, a major storm system is likely to affect our region, and for that matter, most of the eastern half of the U.S. Looks like it will be primarily rain, but some models show just enough of a cold-air damming signature to wonder about ice on the outset. We'll examine more details as it gets closer, but it appears the track will be too far north for any serious winter storm threat in our neck of the woods.

It will get steadily colder as it rains off and on across much of the area today and tonight. A few counties north of the Roanoke and New River valleys, it may get cold enough for freezing rain and sleet later today. As a result, winter weather advisories are out for Alleghany, Rockbridge and Amherst counties and points north later today and tonight. (UPDATE 5:50 PM: Higher elevations of Bedford and Botetourt counties are now also included in what has become a freezing rain advisory END UPDATE). Icy conditions will be spotty in those counties, more widespread farther north and northwest, but use caution if you're driving north tonight. Elsewhere, it will just be a rainy and raw day and night. Cold air will lift out later in the week and we may see some 60s by Friday.

Click here to take a look at how much of the country from Texas to New England is under some kind of winter weather advisory today.