2009.01.03
Rain tonight and Sunday should not be icy
Before we get too far ahead of ourselves looking at silicon-enhanced hallucinations of Tuesday's possibly somewhat wintry scenario, there is rain headed in overnight and Sunday with some moisture overrunning a shallow dome of cold air at the surface. The cold air does not appear as if will be thick enough or cold enough for any wintry precipitation, and amounts overall look to be light (click here for 1-2-day rainfall forecast map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center), but almost everyone will be getting a little wet.
RSS feed 
NWS is now going with a sleet/freezing rain mix Tuesday.
What made them change their minds?
Comment by Brandon R. — January 4, 2009 @ 8:06 am
Looking at this now, I hope temps stay above freezing because we may end up with one or two inches of QPF. If most of that was freezing rain, we could have an issue.
Fortunately, I think we can count on one of two things happening:
1. Warmer temps
2. Moisture cutoff to the south
Comment by Brandon R. — January 4, 2009 @ 4:22 pm
A lot of heavy rain would mix the air really quickly and bring warmth from above to the surface. A steady light to moderate rain falling into a dry cold air mass to allow evaporational cooling would be more problematic. The high to the northeast looks to be placed wrong to hold a cold air wedge in in ... it's too far east, near DC, rather than pushing in from central PA. It's an imperfect setup, to be sure, but just close enough to the borderline that it still bears watching as an ice threat.
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 4, 2009 @ 4:52 pm