2009.01.05
Freezing rain advisory issued north of Roanoke
The winter storm watch in Alleghany, Rockbridge and Amherst counties has not been upgraded to a warning, but rather to the less imposing freezing rain advisory. The high pressure to the northeast is relatively weak and badly out of position to push a deep layer of cold air into our area. It will press just enough cold, dry air to make things really chilly and raw as rain falls during the next couple of days. But ice will be spotty, and probably non-existent down here in the Roanoke Valley. Still, use caution traveling, as you may hit a few icy patches traversing the hills and hollers.
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I have several comments. First, as KM pointed out, just because most roads may be fine when driving around, watch out especially for two things, in reverse order of importance: 2nd, very low, extremely shady areas .... cool air is most likely to settle there first, with one exception; 1st, BRIDGES!!! All that cold air underneath the bridge makes it THE most likely road surface to freeze. Brandon, I really think you should reconsider your position of "rooting for sleet." As KM indicated, it does not melt quickly at all compared to snow. And it makes driving and walking and especially climbing stairs much more hazardous. The several e-mails about global and Roanoke-area are interesting, but I am aware of a very recent publication that has some scientific information that the warming trend of the past 30 or so years may be about to end rather abruptly, may have already started in January 2008. Kevin, am I allowed to mention the publication?
Comment by Doug Griggs — January 5, 2009 @ 5:00 pm
One other comment. According to TWC at 12:30 PM today, they are forecasting overnight lows for 37 in the Salem-Roanoke area, and the lowest forecasted low within 50 miles was 35, I think in Bedford, although such places as Check and Floyd were not listed (which I think is dumb). Steady temps tomorrow with plenty of rain. The 36-hour forecast (i.e., tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night) did not even mention the chance of sleet or freezing rain. I was stunned. Of course they may be very wrong.
Comment by Doug Griggs — January 5, 2009 @ 5:19 pm
Doug, please do mention the publication where you read that ...
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 5, 2009 @ 9:20 pm
Title of article is: "Is Global Warming on the Wane?" Article starts on page 68 of the 2009 Old Farmer's Almanac. It was written by Joseph D'Aleo, who is a meteorologist, climatologist, and co-founder of The Weather Channel. If you can be open-minded about the subject of global warming and climate change, I strongly recommend that each of you get your hands on an issue of the 2009 "OFA" and read it, then re-read it. Key to D'Aleo's point-of-view? Sunspot activity!! Even if you read the article and disagree with his outlook, the article is well worth the read for the vast truly scientific data. And D'Aleo writes well; he "admits" that there is disagreement about the current 11-year sunspot cycle that we just started in January 2008. Scientists agree that cycle 24 started then, but many scientists think it will be another active cycle which would probably lead to continued warming, but many others think it will be a "quiet" one, which would probably lead to more low-level cloudiness and a cooling cycle. The head of research for the Russian Academy of Sciences has even issued "an imminent mini-ice age warning based on .... a quieter Sun for the next 50 years." !!!!!
Comment by Doug Griggs — January 5, 2009 @ 10:12 pm
Joe D'Aleo is a well-known global warming skeptic, and one with a meteorological background that can't easily be dismissed ... I think any effort to silence skeptics is shameful, even if they turn out to be wrong, they can add insights that improve the body of science ... it's important to note that even if the most dire global warming predictions are true, that the natural atmospheric and oceanic oscillations and even celestial effects like sunspot cycles are still ongoing ... ups and downs, cycles of cold, heat, wet and dry are inevitable, even within an overall continued general rise upward in temperature ... so there could be 5, 10, 15-year periods of cooling temperatures even if the 3 to 8 degree rise in temperature over a century is realized ... my position in Weather Journal is to neither deny global warming, nor make it the end-all and be-all of weather and climate ... I am interested observer watching to see how it all plays out in day-to-day weather and year-to-year climate
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 5, 2009 @ 10:27 pm
Back to the weather at hand ... as Brandon R. points out in another thread, the wedge is slowly building in, with northeast winds and a dropping dew point ... we're still in the low 50s, but temperaures should begin to fall faster if we start getting rain through the dry air.
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 5, 2009 @ 10:31 pm
It is midnight now, and the areas in Virginia being hit with at least moderate rainfall as I type are just south of Martinsville and most of Pittsylvania County including Danville. Rain bands moving almost due east. But much bigger and heavier "blobs" are in north Georgia, eastern Kentucky and eastern Tenn., far SW North Carolina, and NW South Carolina, all heading toward us.
Comment by Doug Griggs — January 6, 2009 @ 12:07 am