2009.01.25
Winter storm watch issued for much of Southwest Virginia
The National Weather Service in Blacksburg is taking no chances with the upcoming winter storm potential, issuing a winter storm watch from midnight Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon for most of the New River Valley and all of the Roanoke Valley. South of Interstate 64, it is mostly an ice-driven winter storm watch ... 1-3 inches of snow is expected, followed by a heavy glazing that could top 1/4 inch. Along and north of I-64, it is mostly a snow-driven watch -- 3-7 inches are expected, with a thinner ice coating on top. These amounts are highly changeable depending on how deep the cold air is, how fast the moisture arrives, and how heavy it falls. There's no use going into all the possible scenarios right now beyond saying that a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain appears very likely starting overnight Monday and continuing through much of Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday in some areas, with precipitation type leaning more toward snow early on and more toward sleet and freezing rain as time goes along. Eventually, enough warm air should move northward to change it to above-freezing rain almost everywhere by Wednesday afternoon (as early as Tuesday night in some places)... but keep in mind that cold air masses are often stubborn to leave in a situation where an early ice/snow pack is laid down.
I'll keep a close eye on this and get back with some more possible scenarios as time gets closer. My thanks to everyone who has left a comment since I last posted last night and I will get to your questions.
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I really hope this doesn't turn into an ice thing. I can't drive on that stuff.
I don't want to go into work Tuesday and Wed. thinking it's going to only be snow and then get stuck there.
Comment by Snowless in Roanoke — January 25, 2009 @ 5:27 pm
I think it ends up being a "slush thing" or even just a "wet thing" at some point ... pinpointing that time is the difficult part ... some of the models today are warmer implying a quick transition from snow to sleet to ice to rain ...
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 25, 2009 @ 6:20 pm
I am really excited because I want to see some snow this year. I am not going to get my hopes up on this one like I have so many times this year. It always seems that the NRV gets it and we don't. It seems though this may be a situation where we get more precip. then them? I really hope we get one good snow before winters over.
Comment by JT — January 25, 2009 @ 7:55 pm
Probably in this case NRV and Roanoke Valley will be very similar ... still have about 6 weeks of prime snow season left here with about 4 weeks of marginal snow season after that, so still lots of time ...
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 25, 2009 @ 8:40 pm
I could almost see Roanoke getting a crunchy storm that doesn't amount to warning criteria.
I hate it when that happens because people let their guards down. What they don't realize is that three inches of snow, two tenths of an inch of freezing rain is bad but won't cause a warning..
Comment by Snowless in Roanoke — January 25, 2009 @ 10:58 pm
The main window on this storm for our region looks to be 6 a.m. to noon on Tuesday. If we can get a lot of moisture in here during that time, it could stack up some snow/sleet quickly with a layer of ice forming on top. If it's slower than that, I think it will warm up enough to be very marginal, and we might end up with more of a rain storm with pockets of freezing rain. Trend on models is warmer, but they often tend to slightly overestimate temperatures in our region in this kind of marginal cold air damming situation.
For the snow lovers: Your best hope is to get a lot of heavier precipitation very quickly, ideally even before dawn Tuesday. You could get a few inches before it turns to mush if that happens. Otherwise, this looks very much like another could-a-been-if kinda storm.
Brandon, I do wonder about the winter storm watches if the warm trend continues on the models. NWS will probably hold them over out of caution, but we may end up with an advisory level event.
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 25, 2009 @ 11:07 pm
Advice to "Snowless" and every one else about trying to drive in icy conditions. I was raised in the Boston area; lived there for almost 30 years, so I have lots of experience with this nasty condition.
First: avoid driving if at all possible. If you have to get to work, strongly consider a bus or even a taxi or carpooling, if any of those are alternatives. They are not for me. 2nd: when driving on icy roads, the number one rule that I have been trained to do is to avoid using the brake if at all possible!! OK, how does one stop safely? Allow triple the normal spacing in fornt of you and as you approach a stop or slowdown area, DOWNSHIFT!! Allow the transmission to slow the car. The transmission is my friend ... the brake is my enemy. If you do apply the brakes and go into a skid, take your foot off the brake and steer in the direction of the skid. That is unnatural, but it will work, or at least be less destructive than riding the brake hard and/or steering away from the skid, both of which are the natural reaction.
Comment by Doug Griggs — January 25, 2009 @ 11:27 pm
Wow.. this is starting to look more and more like a wet situation by the minute...
Comment by Snowless in Roanoke — January 26, 2009 @ 5:09 am