2009.01.27
Let's get rid of this mess
I've been watching this storm system on the computer forecast models since early last week. I knew from the outset that it wouldn't be a nice, fluffy snow for our region, but would be a mess. I thought there might be some snow, but that didn't happen. Instead, we endured a day of 34-degree rain in Roanoke, and now we're getting freezing drizzle late at night. Some places around have it much worse, with ice having collected all day. Others have yet to see any ice. But everywhere, it's a cold mess.
It could have been much, much worse. My parents in northeast Arkansas are suffering that region's worst ice storm in a generation. I don't even have contact with them right now, as the power and phone service have blinked in and out. Last I heard, large limbs were crashing down all around, and the Weather Channel has even reported live from my hometown of Jonesboro tonight, showing trees coated with thick ice hanging at the point of breaking. Click here to read more about the severe ice storm in the central U.S.
Please don't be too cocky in the morning when you first head out, just in case there is lingering ice. Just because it wasn't icy today doesn't mean it won't be in the morning. I just found icy spots on the asphalt pavement of a parking lot here in south Roanoke County. Light freezing drizzle and possibly some harder freezing rain will continue overnight.
The good news is that a sweep of warm air on gusty southwest winds will finally arrive during the day Wednesday as the low pressure system moves northeastward to our west, and we might even hit 50. It will quickly melt any ice that has accumulated, and will signal that this very unpleasant winter storm system is moving on out.
This system was a disappointment to anyone wanting snow, but the chances of more than an inch or two of snow for our region were never that good, anyway. More importantly, though some of you have enough ice to break some small branches, we dodged a major ice storm. I dislike 34-degree rain and don't care for freezing drizzle, but the moisture helps with our drought, and it hasn't left the region dark and cold with trees crashing.
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Wow. I will say a prayer for your parents before I go to sleep tonight. I hope everything is okay; I heard from a friend in Oklahoma and he said it's terrible.
Comment by Brandon R. — January 28, 2009 @ 12:01 am
And did I just read that some places in Arkansas could receive up the THREE INCHES OF ICE?
Comment by Brandon R. — January 28, 2009 @ 12:03 am
I've heard that there was that much. Where my parents live, more like 1 inch, but that's plenty. Very bad overrunning situation with thick moisture riding over a shallow dome of cold air. It wouldn't have taken a lot of atmospheric gymnastics to have made it is us getting that kind of ice.
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 28, 2009 @ 12:07 am
I have family in Fort Smith, Ar, all through Texas, and Oklahoma. I talked to my mother tonight in Fort Smith and they're expecting their ice tonight but McAlester, OK was being slammed with heavy snow and ice (my grandmother is there) and in Dallas (my brother), they're being hit with freezing rain tonight. It's a mess all over the tri-state area.
Comment by Misty — January 28, 2009 @ 12:15 am
Just after midnight, things are fairly icy west of Blacksburg. Rt. 460 is fine, and being treated heavily, but any secondary roads are going to be slick into the morning. At higher elevations, there's a nice coating of frozen rain and congealed fog on everything, making even the gravel in our driveway slick.
Very thankful we're not experiencing the same ice storm your parents are, Kevin. I've been in those in central VA before, one of which closed I-64 east of Richmond for two days, and it isn't much fun. Hope they're safe and warm.
Comment by Danny — January 28, 2009 @ 12:24 am
Kevin- Are there any winter weather forecast for next week?
Comment by DAVID S — January 28, 2009 @ 2:38 am
Kevin, I saw Arkansas on the news this morning. It looks horrible. I pray your parents are doing well this morning.
Comment by Angela — January 28, 2009 @ 8:21 am
Kevin, you promised us a muck storm. You were right. Hope your parents get their power and don't experience too much damage. My former neighbors are getting 10-15 inches of snow today back in Southern Maine.
Comment by Jim D — January 28, 2009 @ 8:56 am
I notice that there is alot of agreement on the models about a potential Miller A snowstorm for the beginning of next week. I just wanted to know what your opinion was on this possibility??
Comment by Andrew T — January 28, 2009 @ 9:11 am
There is some potential for a system in the Monday-Tuesday time frame, and possibly even a coastal storm that would bring snow to parts of the East. Details are sketchy as usual.
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 28, 2009 @ 9:45 am
Coincidentally, we are coming up on the 15th anniversary of the worst ice storm to hit Southwest Virginia -- the massive storm of Feb. 10-11, 1994.
Kevin, I checked our archives to refresh my memory -- more than 350 stories mentioned "ice storm" that year! The details are still vivid: about three inches of ice, 66,000 without power (I was without power for six days), thousands of downed trees, impassable roads ... it was awful. Worse than the 1993 blizzard, which was actually really fun.
We had 2 other ice storms in 1994. One in January and another in early March. Neither compared to the February storm.
Comment by Ralph — January 28, 2009 @ 10:17 am
Is there any threat of this next batch of rain coming in today changing over to snow?
Comment by Brandon R. — January 28, 2009 @ 10:40 am
Ralph: The 1994 ice storm was epic, not just here but throughout the Southeast ... it will be interesting to see in the long run how the 2009 storm compares to that one, on a regional/national scale ... ironically, I was living at home with parents on the edge of the 1994 storm watching as it mostly went south and east of us, and here I am today on the edge of the 2009 storm watching it mostly go north and west and hit the region where I used to live.
Brandon: I don't think the cold air will be able to catch the back side of the rain shield as the low pulls northeast, so I would say the chances are low of a changeover to snow. We may start getting snow showers on Thursday and Friday, though, on the backside.
I know folks feel jaded after this storm, but the early-week system next week is definitely one to watch. Sooner or later, one of these winter storms is going to pummel us. I just hope it's snow and not ice.
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 28, 2009 @ 11:05 am
I was glad to get the 1/2 inch of rain. It washed off the salt that was left from the last snow we didn't have.
Comment by Henry — January 28, 2009 @ 11:27 am
This morning on my commute to blacksburg, i came up over the mountains and i saw a defined line where the ice on the trees stopped. my car started to swerve a little bit and all of a sudden my windshield fogged up instantaneously. I almost had to pull over thinking something was blowing hot air from my engine to my windshield.
When I got out of my car in blacksburg, I was greeted with a nice warm breeze. It's 56 in Blacksburg and 36 in Roanoke. That, my friends, is some crazy weather.
Comment by scott — January 28, 2009 @ 12:26 pm
Now it's raining heavily in Blacksburg, with some gusty winds too. Must be the front moving through.
Comment by Other John — January 28, 2009 @ 1:28 pm
That warm, wet air you spoke of at 11:59 last night has arrived here in SW County "outside" of Electric Road. It was 39 degrees in my zip code at 1:35 PM, 41 degrees on Brandon Ave. near Peters Creek Rd., and 46 degrees and pouring rain for the last two miles of my commute along Mud Lick Rd., Bridle Ave, and then Sugar Loaf Mntn Road. At 12:10 PM it was 38 or 39 at RRA, 42 in Salem, but 53 and wet in Blacksburg.
Comment by Doug Griggs — January 28, 2009 @ 2:13 pm
As I drove to work this morning the temperature went from 36 off N. Main in Blacksburg to 50 at the office near Corning.
Comment by martinj — January 28, 2009 @ 2:58 pm
My early call on the "storm" next week: it either never materializes close to the coast, or it does, and becomes yet another in a long string of runners to our west. It's just been the pattern for so long that I'm not sure if it will break our way.
Comment by Other John — January 28, 2009 @ 5:42 pm
I think the "inland runner" scenario for next week's storm is very plausible ... the question would then become how far inland ... slightly inland, and it's a big hit for our area ... farther inland, and it's wind-driven rain, or snow changing to rain ... if it evolves anywhere close to what the models are showing, the ice threat would be minimal for our area, it would likely go either rain or snow, and that suits me fine ...
Talked to my parents a while ago. They're going to a shelter tonight,but doing fine. No power yet. Trees in their yard took a real beating. I have a friend checking on them. I was ready to go out there myself, but probably won't now.
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 28, 2009 @ 6:01 pm
Good to hear that they're ok, other than being without power. I always hate ice storms for that, but despite living in Virginia for almost all of my life, I've yet to be caught in a major one since I always seem to be in a place that just barely gets missed. As for the next storm, the models seem to be in agreement that there will be a storm, but I have seen the tracks shift along with the freezing line and the precipitation shield, so I guess it's anyone's guess as to what will happen...
Comment by Other John — January 28, 2009 @ 11:07 pm