2009.01.28
Next up ... Monday-Tuesday potential storm
Let's take a deep breath now that the Great Muck Storm of 2009 (a lot more muck for many others than us) is moving out, hammering New England on its way, and a few days of seasonable cold settle in. There could be a couple of waves of mountain snow showers with weak disturbances each of the next two nights, but nothing big.
The next big-ticket item on the table is the potential for a strong low pressure to develop in the Gulf of Mexico or near the Southeast U.S. coast early next week, deepen quickly and ride northward somewhere near the East Coast. Some variation of the scenario is shown by multiple forecast models, and considering the pattern, with waves of energy diving into a deep jet stream trough over the eastern U.S., it is certainly plausible. But it's all about the details, as this system showed, and we're a few days out from getting much of a handle on those. Whether the storm will in fact develop is the biggest detail, of course, and if it does, its exact track would be huge in determining its impact.
This would be a very different animal than the ugly beast that just wallowed across the country. At its greatest potential, this would be a beautifully but powerfully wound-up cyclone that could be almost like a winter hurricane, known as much for its wind as the quantity of rain and snow it puts out. The reality will probably be something less, but could still be potent for somebody. Whether this system finally gives Roanoke our first 1-inch snowfall of 2008-09, even muddled by rain, or (gasp!) has a shot to crack our 13-year hiatus of foot-deep snows ... well, let's just take a deep breath and continue to be as skeptical as the recent winters' weather patterns have deserved, until there is reason to prove otherwise.
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I'm no pro, and I know this storm is a while out, but at 500mb, it looks to me like a double, even maybe tripple phase is occuring with this storm. ( subtropical, pacific, and artic ) jet. If this were to happen, someone would get bombed. Wether it be Louisville Kentucky, or Richmond, Va. This storm ..and I know it's early, but this storm Could Could Could be a blizzard for someone in the Eastern Third. If I had to guess I'd say it'd be north of the Mason Dixon Line, cuz thats when the artic jet phases. But some model trends show this happening further south, somewhere in the southeast.
Comment by Zach — January 28, 2009 @ 7:29 pm
I think that's a pretty good analysis right now. Could still be a pretty big deal down our way even if doesn't fully bomb till farther north.
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 28, 2009 @ 10:28 pm
BTW ... I plan to take a little blog hiatus the next couple of days to catch my breath and do some other things ... I will be checking back a few times for your comments, so keep those coming, and don't be frustrated if it's a few hours before they get posted ... your comments have been very good during this last "event" and often added a lot to the discussion ... I can't imagine what this blog would be like when/if we finally get the "big one" sometime! ... Thanks to all ... Kevin
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 28, 2009 @ 10:34 pm
I love this blog, Kev. I don't know what any of us would do without it.
I'm going to stop thinking about weather for a couple of days and hope this comes to fruition as a snow event next week. I think it'll be less of a tough pill to swallow if I don't go and get my hopes up.
Have a good rest of the week.
Comment by Brandon R. — January 28, 2009 @ 10:56 pm
But I must post this blurb I just saw on Accuweather:
I like a track that goes from New Orleans to Charlotte by Tuesday morning and Boston by Tuesday night. That path would mean blizzard conditions with a foot of snow from northern Georgia to Roanoke to Binghamton to Burlington, Vt. Winds would gusts 30-50 mph with heavy snow on the western flank, which is why it might be a storm that is 75% of the strength of the '93 blizzard. On the eastern side, coastal areas will be battered by high wave action and winds up to 40 mph and some zone between the rain along the coast and the blizzard along the front range of the Appalachians there would be a snow and ice event that would change over to a wind-blown snow on the backside
-from Henry Marguisity
Comment by Brandon R. — January 28, 2009 @ 11:21 pm
To Kevin, Other John, and the rest of you, who are mostly snow lovers. I think my incredible run of good luck is about to end (I am a mailman, and snow makes my job a lot tougher). I simply have a strong feeling that either on Monday or Tuesday RRA/WDBJ will receive at least its first inch of snow, and probably at least 3 inches. I am not basing it on anything scientific (except that it is the next serious blob of precip in our area). Roanoke (from the snow haters' point of view) has dodged too many bullets. This pup is going to get us, at least moderately. And if not this one, then some time by Valentine's Day. At least there is a lot more daylight now and a slightly improved chance of quick melting after the snowfall. And good call Kevin, about today's high being warm. RRA hit 52.
Comment by Doug Griggs — January 28, 2009 @ 11:27 pm
The new GFS runs relly take the "blizzard" out of this, really just 2 week low pressure systems riding up the coast. I don't like this idea, I don't thnk the model is handelling it well.
Comment by Zach — January 29, 2009 @ 6:22 am
Any word on the drought?
Comment by Henry — January 29, 2009 @ 7:03 am
Are we talking about something similar to the March 1993 huge snowstorm?
Comment by AJ — January 29, 2009 @ 8:10 am
Looks like the forecasters are going with Rain/Snow at this point. They are hedging their bets I guess. The forecast will probably change 16 times between now and then but I hope all the ingredients will finally come together and give our region a good snow this time around.
Comment by John-From Charlottesville — January 29, 2009 @ 11:45 am
The latest reading I've done on this seems to indicate a westerly track, very similar to all the major storms this year and going back the last few. Of course we're still several days out from this even forming up, but my gut feeling is that despite the initial hype for this area and east of here that a lot of folks have thrown out there on the national scene, that we get mostly rain and the big snows go up well west of here in the Ohio Valley to the interior NE. It's just been the consistent pattern all winter long, and almost every storm this year was initially thought to go up the coast and bring us winter weather, but wound up turning into a western runner that pulled enough warm air in to give us rain. I hope I'm wrong...I'd love to see a good snow for a change, but I just don't have a good feeling on this that it'll happen. I can't complain about the rains to help with the drought, but it would be nice to keep the cold air in place while we get the precipitation this time.
Comment by Other John — January 29, 2009 @ 12:57 pm
Well, I'm certainly hoping for something good (snow,snow and umm..snow) for early next week..however NOAA has us down for freezing rain right now..yuck. I have an important appointment on Monday..no freezing rain!
Comment by Angela — January 29, 2009 @ 9:50 pm
This will be the one that makes up for all of the frustrating near misses this winter. 20" and blizzard conditions-BRING IT ON!!
Comment by george k — January 29, 2009 @ 10:08 pm
Been away most of the day, but some interesting comments. My parents have power again and are back home. I'll plan to post something Saturday morning to get the conversation about next week's started in earnest. But feel free to drop a few comments on here before then.
All I will say about Tuesday's storm from this point is that I think it will be west of the coast but probably not as far west as the Appalachians ... so that will put us in the zone that would be on the bubble between heavy snow and rain/snow mix ... and that it will probably be a rain changing to snow type event since the cold air won't be well placed ahead of time, but will be pulled into the deepening low ... still, this could be a significant to major winter storm for our area, so it continues to bear watching.
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 29, 2009 @ 10:25 pm
So happy to hear your parents are home again...there IS no place like home!! I am crossing my fingers for a huge snow. If it does not come to us this year I am moving north!
Comment by Wanda — January 30, 2009 @ 6:55 am
The models trended a bit farther east overnight.
Somehow, I think if it goes too far east we might not get anything.
Comment by Brandon R. — January 30, 2009 @ 8:49 am
Just checked out HPC. Their prelim extended discussion for next week's storm seems to indicate a more easterly track. Unfortunately, their 5-day QPF map now shows only about .5 inches of precip for us. The storm would have to be either a lot farther east or very fast to only give us that much precip wouldn't it?
Comment by thinksnow — January 30, 2009 @ 10:19 am
While my original worry of the storm not phasing until it gets north of us seems to be coming to fuition, this may not be all "that" bad for snow lovers here. You see, if the storm happens to "blow up", in the Southeast, the trough would turn negative, likely taking the heaviest of snows West of here. If the storm cold front passes through monday, the low rides up that front somewhere along the coast, the cold air should be in place here. While a foot of snow would not be likely with this track, I think back to 2006, where we had a general 6-10" snowfall along the Blue Ridge. A track like this favors accumulating snowfall, while no blizzard, still a decent snowfall. I saw the 12z GFS today, and believe it's garbage. It's the models doing there general Cha Cha. I think the low rides from Fayetville, Nc, to the Delmarva, then starts to blow up. If the storm does happen to take a farther west track than this, we could still see snow, because the low will have to be much much stronger ( almost like a blizzard), wrapping cold air into the storm.
Comment by Zach — January 30, 2009 @ 1:13 pm
Kevin,
Just read the latest regional forcast discussions and listened to the extended Roanoke forcast on weather radio. Our big storm is turning into a big DUDD! Some even question if we see much precip at all and the Roanoke extended forcast reads: Monday 60% rain upper 40's, Tuesday, mostly cloudy, 30's and Wednesday, brisk, 30's. No mention of snow at all-very disappointing to say the least. Say it aint so, Joe!
Had some flurries here on Peakwood during the day, high mid 30's.
Steve in Roanoke
Comment by Steve Murray — January 30, 2009 @ 5:15 pm
Kevin, it's time to update the comments. Hope everything is OK. I just watched Robin Reed on WDBJ-7 predict that the Gulf Low will head due east to the Jacksonville area, then NE just off the Atlantic coast. Wet Monday, cold and windy with some possible brief snow showers for Tuesday!! Big change in the forecast for him. Comments -- Kevin, Other John, and others?
Comment by Doug Griggs — January 30, 2009 @ 11:27 pm
I generally agree with Zach's comments. If the storm blows up too early, it has more of a chance of pulling west. That scenario is seeming less likely. So a weaker, faster, farther east storm may be the ticket.
I don't understand how a farther east track would increase the rain threat in our area. A track more to the east would allow more cold air to work in. I would think a Jacksonville-Cape Hatteras kinda storm track would either be a decent snow or miss to the east for us, not rain.
Sit tight ... the models often struggle with a storm in the mid-range like this. By Saturday night or Sunday, hopefully we'll have a better fix on it.
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 31, 2009 @ 12:20 am
Brandon R.
I read that on Henry's site also. While I like reading that column he does tend to get a bit over anxious with predicting snow. I always hope he's right though ;).
Comment by Angela — January 31, 2009 @ 10:16 am