2009.01.31
Next week's storm is still blurry, at best
Looking at a few discussions and model runs tonight, I have to say I'm no less confused, and quite a bit more flummoxed, about next week's system than I was. I'm kinda disappointed this wasn't settled in my two days of infrequent computer access. (I say that tongue in cheek. I knew it would be quite a bit more complex when I got back to it).
I'm pretty convinced this will NOT be anything resembling a blizzard, as there simply isn't enough cold air already in place ahead of the storm, and the strength of the storm certainly doesn't look as impressive as it did a few days ago. Really, I'm not surprised by that ... there is a reason true monster snowstorms are rare, and I didn't really expect this one to be even a quasi-1993 Superstorm. I'm not quite ready to bail out on the idea of snow for Southwest Virginia just yet because so much is unsettled. A more eastern track, as the Hydrometeorological Predication Center favors, would allow more cold air to filter southward behind the storm.
I say give it another 24 hours to see if there is anything resembling model consensus. Though the weather service in Blacksburg has bailed on its "snow likely" forecasts for our area, I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow in the area late Monday or early Tuesday. But a major snowstorm, as looked at least possible a couple of days ago, is doubtful.
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Great.... it looks like nothing is going to come out of this storm.... I'm wondering if we are ever gonna get a big snow again...
Comment by Mike — January 31, 2009 @ 10:09 am
Hi Kevin,
18 on Peakwood this morning. Such a disappointment reading the forecast discussions. There is a glimmer of hope that we may have some snow late Monday/early Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Looks like this last rain event will not put Roanoke Regional over the "normal" threshold for January. At my site we easily made it. Glad to hear your parents are OK and have power. February is our snowiest month and March can land some good snows as well, but don't we say that each year? Take care, my friend.
Steve in Roanoke
Comment by Steve Murray — January 31, 2009 @ 10:26 am
Funny how reading a weather report can feel like a punch in the gut..sort of bursts your bubble,huh?
Comment by Angela — January 31, 2009 @ 11:45 am
I don't think this game is over yet. I never really bought into the semi-superstorm idea ... it was interesing to look at a few model runs, but not something I thought would end up happening, or even if it did, would end up being on the cusp of being too far west.
2 things to watch: (1) if the models start inching the storm back to the west some in the next 24-36 hours and/or developing a larger precipitation shield west of the storm center (2) whether the disturbances moving through to energize the bigger storm spread a swath of light-moderate snow over our region.
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 31, 2009 @ 11:53 am
I think the solution to the problem of getting everybody excited about a snow storm is to just not tell people about it....just look out the window and watch it come on in.
Comment by AJ — January 31, 2009 @ 12:22 pm
I hate waiting on storms to happen or not happen.
I saw Slumdog Millionaire last night; excellent movie, took my mind off the weather for a little bit. Got home in time to see the 00Z runs of the GFS.
Still not sure what to think. I don't buy the idea of it going out to see; that hasn't really happened this year so I see no reason for it to start now.
Comment by Brandon R. — January 31, 2009 @ 12:23 pm
Kevin- I've given up on any hope that we'll have even a measurable snowfall this year. I was thinking that the storms couldn't possibly keep missing us, but, it seems, the storms keep missing us.
Comment by Brian — January 31, 2009 @ 12:31 pm
AJ: On a weather discussion blog, we look at possibilities not just realities -- and lots of people discuss possibilities, more each year. But I've thought many times about how much more exciting it was as a kid when I didn't have Internet access to forecast models to just hear about a vague snow possibility for a few days and then see it happen (lots of disappointments back then, too)
Brian: Technically we had a measurable snowfall on Nov. 18 ... the record books show Roanoke has four-tenths of an inch (though even more technically, that was FALL not WINTER). But the later we go, of course, the more our chances improve of what would basically be the first snowfall shutout in Roanoke's recorded weather history. We do have a likely mild period ahead in the next 1-2 weeks, so that would increase our chances even more. Still, late February and early March have often held some big surprises in otherwise nearly snowless years. 1976 went all the way to March 12 before there was a significant snow!
Brandon: Every storm this winter, including last week's, trended north and west with time. If this one trends south and east ... maybe Brian's feeling is correct, they're just missing us this year.
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 31, 2009 @ 12:58 pm
I remember the initial hype on places like Accuweather for this storm, and not buying into it either. I thought it would either go west and bring us rain, or be so far south and east that we got little or nothing from it. Of course, nature could still surprise everyone, but I didn;t have a good feeling about it, and it looks like the hype was largely unfounded, yet again.
Comment by Other John — January 31, 2009 @ 1:23 pm
Just looked at the latest model runs. Looks like the storm is trending more west and (more importantly) warmer than earlier runs. We will only see marginal rain or mixing with the frontal passage to out N and NW. No significant moisture either way. I know there is plenty of winter left, but this is starting to look a lot like previous winters - potential not realized b/c of 1 or 2 lacking factors - Greenland blocking or southern jet moisture...
Comment by Julie — January 31, 2009 @ 4:22 pm
What I want to do on here is never to ignore possible weather situations but not to hype them until it looks almost certain it will happen. This system, as of now, doesn't look like it will be much of a storm for anybody at this point, though some scattered areas in the East might collect some snow with the different disturbances trying to come together. There will be a considerable period of upslope snow squalls Tuesday and Wednesday. That's the story of this winter ... other than upslope, the pieces just don't come together.
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 31, 2009 @ 4:58 pm
Kevin, you do a good job of presenting the possibilities without hyping them one way or the other. The folks at Accuweather have been awful about hyping storms every time they appear in a model run, then they look like fools for doing the hype when the storm fizzles or never appears. Sadly, every time they do that it makes meteorologists everywhere look bad, and leaves the public rather peeved that they didn't get it right. That's one of the things that irked me this time around. One of the AW guys who had correctly called the previous storm, saying the pattern was too predominent this winter for it to turn into a solid snow for most east coast areas then got too wound up in the hype for this storm and ignored his past guidance. I'm now thinking that we have either had our best/biggest snow of the year already, or that the only way we'll get a significant storm is through an atmospheric surprise and not something that appears on forecast models 2 weeks out like this upcoming system.
Comment by Other John — January 31, 2009 @ 5:15 pm
Kevin, I really do enjoy and learn from the discussion on this blog. Yours and the insights of others are helping me to develop an understanding of weather patterns in our region. As a newcomer, it is truly valuable.
Comment by Jim D — January 31, 2009 @ 5:53 pm
I've definitely learned not to buy into the hype five days out from a storm.
Kind of looking forward to the warm weather now. Cold with no snow is pointless and annoying.
Comment by Brandon R. — January 31, 2009 @ 7:15 pm
Could the models be doing another turnaround?
The NAM run was quite interesting. But that's the NAM. If not for our area, places east could be looking at something..
Comment by Brandon R. — January 31, 2009 @ 10:29 pm
The NAM (North American Model) Brandon refers to appears to be showing that some of the pieces that eventually go into making the bigger storm might be able to squeeze out some rain/snow in our area Monday night and early Tuesday. I still think this is a possibility. What I see as the fly in the ointment is that the whole thing moves into pretty mild air at first. It would take some time to chill the atmosphere, and by that time, most of the moisture might be gone.
Actually ... the new GFS (Global Forecast System) model is showing something similar.
My instinct is that it's too early to let go of this situation entirely. Maybe getting some snow out of the deconstructed version of the original mega-snowstorm model fantasy can qualify as Other John's surprise.
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 31, 2009 @ 10:53 pm
I'm wondering if you read Marguisity's theory on the volcano and change in flight paths. He said it might have tricked the models into thinking the thing wasn't going to come together.
Now.. why I don't think this will be a megastorm in the south, someone to the North could get pummeled..
Comment by Brandon R. — January 31, 2009 @ 11:02 pm
If tonight's runs of the American models have any validity ... it certainly puts a 2-4 inch type snow back in play as a possibility for our region, and possibly a bigger snowstorm DC-to-Boston. If the jet energy can dig a bit farther south, it would put us back in the game for a chance at a bigger snowfall (not the historic blizzard depicted a few days ago). The earlier this storm winds up the more cold air it draws in faster, and it could also swing a big west.
Too many "ifs" still ... but a breath of hope for snow lovers ...
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 31, 2009 @ 11:16 pm
Where ya been, Kev?
2 to 4 inches here IS a huge snowstorm... lol.
Comment by Brandon R. — January 31, 2009 @ 11:21 pm
And at this point 2-4 inches remains an unrealized fantasy ...
Brandon ... have you grown so confident in it that you've dropped your "Snowless" moniker?
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 31, 2009 @ 11:26 pm
I'm definitely not confident in this storm. Like you said, nothing is etched in stone until it happens. The models could flop right back to the east tomorrow. Or even worse, run up the apps.
However.. it seems to me the trend so far this year is something like this:
1. Models go to one solution
2. Models waiver for a few days
3. Models go back to regular solution
Now.. those all trended back to the west. Same thing the GFS and NAM did tonight. The UKMET is still out to see. The jury is still out on the Euro.
It's got to make forecasting this thing tricky for any paid meteorologist. However, even thought I'm not confident, I have a good feeling about this one.
It has to happen sometime. And since I've lived up here, we've had quite a few good snows following 50 degree days so it's not out of the question. Farther south it forms, the better it looks for snow lovers around here. Let's just sit back, enjoy, and see what happens.
This is weather at it's finest.
Comment by Brandon R. — January 31, 2009 @ 11:32 pm
An experienced meteorologist should be able to look at the pattern without any models and deduce that there should be a storm somewhere over or near the eastern US. The models are a tool to help pinpoint what could happen more precisely, but very minute changes can have major impact (though I don't know about the planes dodging the volcano theory).
On March 30, 2003, we got a half-foot after a high of 76 the day before. It's a bit of a myth that we can't have snow after a mild day, or that "it won't stick." A couple of days in the 50s won't entirely warm the soil after a few weeks of mostly below-normal temperatures. The problem here is getting the boundary layer (air near the surface) cool enough fast enough to allow snow high in the atmosphere to get to the surface. On the current model runs, the mechanisms in place would only allow that to happen very marginally. We'll see if it changes with new information on Sunday.
Comment by kevinmyatt — January 31, 2009 @ 11:46 pm