2009.02.24
Milder days ahead, but then, a brief cold shot
Milder days are on the way ... at least Wednesday and Thursday, when highs could reach the 50s to near 60 across Southwest Virginia. But a new storm system moving to our northwest will bring a cold front through, possibly kicking off some rain Thursday night and Friday. It doesn't look like a soaker, though, with the storm's strongest energy up near the Great Lakes.
Even though the long-range pattern is trending milder overall, there will likely be a brief shot of cold air over the weekend into early next week. There is also some upper-level energy that may move through the Southeast early next week, which could ... well ... there's no way I'm even going to go there right now.
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Time to break out the golf clubs and start chipping off the rust on those warmer days in preperation for spring, which I'm hopeful will make an early and lasting appearance. I'll second Brandon on being tired of this cold weather. I've been through colder winter weather, but enjoyed those times because there was at least some snow around to make it worthwhile.
Comment by Other John — February 24, 2009 @ 12:52 pm
I very much enjoyed the last few words of your latest blog article, Kevin. I even chuckled out loud. It will not snow in Roanoke next week; but it will on or after the 8th of March. Any takers for a little wager? Give me 100 to 1 odds and I will put up a dollar!!! Limit of 5 bets. One inch or more at RRA. :>) :>) :>)
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 24, 2009 @ 6:20 pm
Thanks also for posting that link to the MSNBC article on the big snowstorm and power outages in northern New England, Kevin. I just read it. Near the end of the article one of the people interviewed in Maine made the comment that "people around here have had enough of it (i.e., big snowfalls)." That may accurately reflect the mood up there, ayah (that is an old-fashioned Maine expression, BTW), but I bet they get hit again, several times, and possibly hard again (10 inches plus) and even possibly hard again twice or more. I am from Mass. originally, and March is a winter month there and often April acts like one. Well, in northern Maine, April is a winter month, and sometimes early May even acts like it. About 30% of the time northern Maine has a later spring than North Dakota. I have a feeling this year will be one of those years. True story: My Dad once traveled to extreme northern Maine 2 or 3 days before July 4. Afternoon high temp was something ridiculous like 45. He was having trouble believing it, even though he lived in the Portland area at the time. So he asked a local how unusual it was for such a cold day in early July. Local guy stared back at him and slowly replied, "We have two seasons up here in northern Maine, mister. Winter ... and the Fourth of July!!!" And it was not quite the 4th.
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 24, 2009 @ 6:40 pm
I'll go there....
http://image.examiner.com/images/blog/wysiwyg/image/WEATHEREFFECTS.jpg
Comment by Johnny — February 24, 2009 @ 7:54 pm
When I first saw the headline, for a split second I read it as "Miller days ahead" no doubt due to wishful thinking! Somehow, I'm not quite ready to throw in the towel on this winter just yet. I looked back at the winter of 1992-1993 on Weather Underground. Temps were fairly mild in January and around averge in February and early March until the big storm on March 13. I don't expect anything like that as that storm deserved to be called "Storm of the Century", but it goes to show that things can happen in March when the previous months have been ho-hum for snow. The big difference, however, is that winter was very wet with every month above average in precipitation.
Comment by KevinL — February 25, 2009 @ 9:08 am
JOHNNY.... nooooooooooo!
Comment by Brandon R. — February 25, 2009 @ 7:12 pm
Thanks for posting the link, Johnny. Interesting. But I and just about everybody else who contributes to or reads this blog and who lives in the general Roanoke Valley area is probably adopting the official IWBIWISI approach about seeing snow on the ground from this weekend's storm. The acronym? I Will Believe It When I See It. Chances of snow would be much greater if we could get humidity levels much higher and much colder air in place BEFORE the storm hits. With all these very windy days and lack of precip and a low water table, humidity levels are among the lowest one ever sees here for several recent days. Yesterday I think I saw a dew point of 6 in early afternoon for a Rel. Hum. of 23%
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 25, 2009 @ 9:40 pm
The models have been consistent in showing the storm, which is about the first time they've constantly shown a storm occuring all season. THey keep it mostly out of our area though, with the bulk of any impacts closer to the coast. I have my doubts about it happening, but it looks like this time it will miss south and east rather than north and west. It would figure, it's been our luck that when a storm finally doesn;t cut to the Great Lakes, it stays too far south to be meaningful. or just simply fizzles. As I said before, I am over this winter and ready for warm temperatures and for the landscape to come to life. Spring can't get here fast enough.
Comment by Other John — February 25, 2009 @ 10:09 pm
Doug: I'm going to disagree with you about one thing. High humidity levels before a winter storm approaches kill the potential for evaporational cooling, which is often the lifeblood of winter storms on this side of the Appalachians. I would say that for optimum conditions for a winter storm, cold, dry air needs to be in place (dewpoints in the teens are ideal) with a steady surge of moist air moving to slowly saturate the atmosphere and induce evaporational cooling. Pre-existing high-humidity levels often mean that the temperature buoys near freezing and then rises above freezing quickly.
Other John: I could see us possibly missing this on both sides if the bulk of the overrunning/cold air advection snow is to the northwest late Saturday and the upper low closes off to the south Sunday dumping on the Carolinas. It's a very complicated storm with lots of moving parts. It's actually very March-like, which it will be on Sunday.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 26, 2009 @ 10:19 am
Re: your comment of 10:19 AM today: but Kevin, if temps are already below freezing with high humidity before the storm hits, an area doesn't need evaporational cooling. Looks like the air will no longer be super dry on Sunday morning because of possible moisture on Friday and Saturday, so at least we would not have to worry about too much of the system's energy being used up to overcome dry air. Big problems this time may be the temps and storm track.
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 26, 2009 @ 10:46 pm
Doug: My experience here is that 2/3 of our winter storms start with cold, very dry air in place. This weekend's storm may struggle for precisely that reason ... temperatures only slowly creeping downward because of overly moist air. IF (a very big if) we get a significant snow on Sunday, it will be because of dynamic cooling from a strong upper-level low ... cold air being imported from high in the atmosphere to ground level, with the help of heavy precipitation. (Cold air advection from the north will be the trigger if we get snow earlier, like Saturday night) So yes, dynamic cooling can overcome the lack of evaporational cooling, but most of our big winter storms start with very low dew points and moisture moving into it.
Also ... i would say a storm doesn't really use up its energy in overcoming dry air, but can, if the air is extremely dry, use up its moisture. We missed a snow in late February 2004 that was very big in North Carolina but the moisture couldn't saturate the very dry air here, which was being reinforced by a strong high to the north.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 26, 2009 @ 11:02 pm