2009.02.27
UPDATED 8:20 AM: Winter storm likely to be serious problem for someone in East
UPDATE 8:20 AM: The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a winter storm watch extending through Monday morning (starting tonight generally along and west of the Blue Ridge, starting Sunday afternoon for points to the east). At this point, the weather service isn't being very specific with forecasted amounts because of remaining uncertainties. But a mix of precipitation is expected overnight, shifting more to snow Sunday and Sunday night as the strong low takes shape to our south and then moves up the coast. Still much to be deciphered about track, strength, and where a possibly very hard back edge of the precipitation will develop with the main low. END UPDATE
A season-maker ... or a heartbreaker? For snow fans in the Roanoke Valley and Southwest Virginia, it's down to that with a strong winter storm system that is very likely to develop. Some effects could be felt tonight as light rain possibly changes to sleet and snow, but the big show is Sunday into early Monday. There seems to be significant support for the possibility that this big storm will turn up the coast and fling a wall of snow westward all the way to the Appalachians and perhaps beyond. It's not signed, sealed and delivered yet, and locations east of us at this point have a more sure bet than we do, but I would just be cynical if I told you there wasn't a real possibility of a significant snowfall, or even a snow STORM over the next 2-3 days.
But let's get serious for a moment.
If you are planning travel ANYWHERE in the Eastern US over the next 3 days or so, please monitor the latest forecasts, and seriously consider postponing travel into areas that are flagged with winter storm watches or warnings. This will likely be a major, possibly historic, winter storm for some locations, though that can't be pinpointed perfeclty yet. I am convinced that someone east of the Appalachians, somewhere between South Carolina and Maine, will get snow topping a foot ... and maybe a lot of folks.
Will that be us, with the foot?
How about some updated best-guess probabilities, total snow through Monday:
Less than 1 inch: 30 percent
1-3 inches: 25 percent
3-6 inches: 25 percent
6-12 inches: 10 percent
12-plus inches: 10 percent
RSS feed 
The unheard of GGEM model has a 998 mb low off the coast of VA.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 12:02 am
The GGEM is better known as the Canadian model ... not that unknown, and a pretty good model ... the GFS and Canadian are in agreement, and both are similar to the Euro earlier today ... if the new Euro is in line too, it will be time to start laying on the horn for the Eastern US.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 12:09 am
I didn't know that. Shows how much I need to learn about the different models.
Anyway, Kev, I got a decent feeling about this one.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 12:11 am
Kevin, you mentioned that someone in the East will get a foot or more of snow, and I agree. I bet that Milo, Maine gets at least 8 inches. Is there any website that I could check into to monitor that in a couple of days?
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 28, 2009 @ 12:12 am
I want to emphasize right now that I am not yet saying that a major winter storm is going to occur in Southwest Virginia ... but that it is a POSSIBILITY, and a growing one ... I am saying that a major winter storm is likely in the Eastern US in general ... we'll see how the details develop today.
Good night!
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 12:14 am
It is 6:50 AM Saturday, and guess what The Weather Channel is forecasting for our area for Sunday (daylight hours at least)?? NO PRECIP! According to the Weekly Planner that I just saw, the entire Blue Ridge area in western Virginia (from Front Royal all the way down to the NC border) as well as SE West Virginia will be dry! Comments?
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 28, 2009 @ 6:51 am
Kevin...Kevin...get up...winter storm watches up...check out this morning's HPC charts...it's getting closer...spring COULD be on hold for a few days...
Comment by Betsy — February 28, 2009 @ 7:11 am
Doug: I don't comment on TWC one way or the other. But even the NWS now has a winter storm watch up through Monday morning.
It is possible there will be a gap in the precipitation between the first wave this evening and the big low later Sunday, though. Then, the question will be where exactly the snow area sets up with the low moving up the coast.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 8:18 am
I'll be hiking today at Walnut Flats. We'll let you know how it feels. We are going to pass on the camping overnight on the ridge.
Comment by Henry — February 28, 2009 @ 8:33 am
Overnight, the European model's latest run came in similar with the Canadian and to a large extent the GFS in projecting a storm path late Sunday/early Monday that would lead to a strong chance of a moderate to heavy snowfall across most of Southwest Virginia. The North American Model remains south and east of the other guidance, and if correct, would lead to a miss for our region of the main storm. But even it is farther north and west than it was.
So this is not a done deal, yet, as there is still some chance we could be on the outside looking in late Sunday and early Monday, west of a very hard edge to the snow shield. HPC, as you can see in the link below, has us on the southern edge of 4-plus inches through Sunday morning, then on the western edge of the moderate risk for 4-plus inches and the western edge of the slight risk for 8-plus inches for Sunday AM through Monday AM, with the 12-plus risk farther east.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
First things are first though, and that is monitoring how fast the cold air leaks southward into the rain moving into our region today and tonight. An early arrival could make things white long before the bigger storm is even a factor.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 8:44 am
The Weather Channel is not as accurate or informative or detailed as it used to be since NBC owns them; they are now more concerned about advertisements and such rather than accurate weather forecasting, and this is where WDBJ-7 gets their information about weather; thus the inaccuracies all the time.
Anyway...go get your bread and milk and snack items for this weekend folks.
Comment by AnitaJ — February 28, 2009 @ 10:15 am
WDBJ-7 is a CBS affiliate so I do not think they would get weather information from NBC or an NBC network like the Weather Channel. In fact, having visited the WDBJ studios and talked with their meteorologists on a few occasions, I know they do not. Meteorologists at Roanoke stations WDBJ-7 and WSLS-10 develop their own forecasts, and I would presume the same is true at WSET-13 which is based in Lynchburg.
For full disclosure ... the Weather Channel was formerly under Landmark Communications, which also owns The Roanoke Times / Roanoke.com, but was sold in the fall to NBC. Landmark was reorganized into an LLC (you businessfolks will know what that is, I'm not sure I do) after that sale and now holds this newspaper, the Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk, Greensboro News & Record, and several small weekly newspapers.
My operating rules here are not to get into the ins and outs of other media outlets, though your opinions about them (and about me/RT/Roanoke.com -- see this month's Roanoker magazine for an example of my column being parodied) are welcome so long as they do not cross the line into being personal.
In this case, I do ask that we focus as much as possible on the weather itself. This storm hasn't happened yet, so no one is right or wrong about it, and as usual, I do not claim to be a meteorologist pinpointing precise forecasts, I merely aim to keep an ongoing discussion of weather.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 11:17 am
Kevin, I have stocked the mulch yard and removed snow blades from most of my equipment, so it will probably snow like crazy. Either way, I will be ready and thankful for whatever we get. Thank you for being so vigilant.
Tracy
Comment by Tracy Bryant — February 28, 2009 @ 11:34 am
In all of my years of watching and analyzing the weather, this kind of low pressure system likes to move further northward and a little eastward from the forecasted track. I have never seen a storm of this magnitude change its track more southward. Comments Kevin?
Comment by Jeff Watson — February 28, 2009 @ 11:55 am
Jeff: In this particular case it all depends on how much the northern branch of the jet gets involved. The more it is involved, the more north and west this storm will track; the less so, the more south and east. The models that are yanking the storm up the coast are showing a full phase of the northern stream, while the ones kicking the storm more northeast out to sea are bringing the northern stream in either not at all or too late.
In recent winters, it has seemed that the track shift has usually been away from Roanoke whatever direction that happens to be.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 12:04 pm
The cold air is definitely sinking southward. Last night at 11:30 it was 52 deg on our porch. Currently it is 38 and the airport is reporting a dewpoint of 28 which gives us some room to move down a few degrees with any evaporational cooling that might begin soon.
Farmville is reporting 45/32 w/ light rain
Lynchburg is 43/33
Roanoke is 47/37--Hopefully that colder air will get on the other side of the hills soon.
Comment by John in Charlottesville — February 28, 2009 @ 12:12 pm
Some of my family is in Virginia Beach this weekend for the kids to play hockey. Do you think they can get home (to Roanoke) on Sunday? I am beginning to worry.
Comment by Sharon — February 28, 2009 @ 12:40 pm
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=36947
Check this out. This is the GFS accumulated snowfall. It is looking more and more likely that a at lest moderate ( 3 inches) will fall.
Comment by Zach — February 28, 2009 @ 12:54 pm
It definitely looks like an eastern virginia storm at this point from what I can see. One of the ensemble snow forecast maps for the next 84 hours shows heavy snows of around a foot or more extending from central SC to the Tidewater of VA, with another bad of heavier snows back in KY and WV, but our area being between the 2 with little to no snow at all, most of it on the WV border counties, presumably from tonight's system, but it looks like they think we'll get othing from tomorrow onward, because nowhere east of the Blue Ridge until you get to Richmond is shown with any snows, and it's a very sharp cutoff west of Richmond, it doesn;t look like they predict any snow in Charlottesville. But when I looked at the 12Z GFS, it seems to indicate a solid chance for 6-9 inches of snow around our area based on the temp profiles and the precipitation amounts. Again, I'm getting a headache trying to decipher these models when they are all still saying vastly different things.
Comment by Other John — February 28, 2009 @ 1:43 pm
Sharon: Earlier in the day is better for travel on Sunday. The big show is not likely to start until Sunday afternoon if not Sunday night. Some or all of that corridor between Va Beach and Roanoke WILL be affected by this storm, and right now the strong lean is that all of it will be affected (with more rain east toward the coast). There could be some slick spots on roads from overnight sleet/snow over this way, depending on what happens overnight, but I'm not expecting too much.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 1:44 pm
Sorry if you were offended Kevin....I was considering the WeatherBug program, which I believe is not as accurate as other sites for weather forecasting.
Comment by AnitaJ — February 28, 2009 @ 1:45 pm
Zach, let's hope the GFS is right, the NAM model output I looked at kept us in the snow dearth.
Comment by Other John — February 28, 2009 @ 1:46 pm
Anita: Not offended at all, just wanted to be clear on my guidelines for what I will comment on.
Other John: HPC, for what it's worth, is throwing out the NAM because all other models and some of their non-model indicators are leaning to a more westward path. Even the NAM is closer to us with snow than it was last night, though. Southeast Virginia will have some p-type issues, too, so all of what's depicted may not be snow.
I'll be interested to see HPC's snowfall maps that will be updated in a couple of hours or so.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 1:56 pm
Me too Kevin, The 84-hour GFS forecast for snow that Zach posted would be great for this area, well, if you like snow. After being fairly pessimistic about the storm since we've been bruned so many times the last few years, I think this time we might actually see a good one. I'd be willing to bet on a solid 4-6 inches at minimum for most of the area, with some places in the 8-10 range, especially if they get snow tonight and tomorrow, though it seems like the overlap area between the two systems might not be very large.
Comment by Other John — February 28, 2009 @ 2:00 pm
Right now I'm not expecting much out of this overnight situation ... maybe a couple of inches up toward Rockbridge, Alleghany counties. If I were forced to draw a map right now for Sunday night, I'd put the axis of heavy snow from Danville to DC and most of our area would be in the 4-10 inch zone (sounds like yours, Other John). That is strictly an educated guess based on model trends and the overall development of this system in this pattern. I still think the 10-plus and and not-much options are still on the table for Roanoke/New River valleys.
I would say this is the first really interesting winter storm we've had to follow since ... well, exactly 4 years ago today, the Feb. 28, 2005, storm that dumped 6-12 inches to break us out of what had been a similarly lackluster winter.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 2:13 pm
I think the ideas below ( 3pm yesterday) and the video are still a pretty good representation of a major disruptive snowstorm in the heart of the area that has missed this year. My call is for a 6-12 inch storm from DC to Boston with wind, extreme cold for the season and blowing and drifting. In fact, what was outlined yesterday looks good to me.
ONe thing I want to say is this storm will turn into a vary cold storm with temps for instance in DC in the mid 20s monday as the storm ends and NYC falling to near 20 as the storm ends. The March 1969 storm that this was analogged too was a warmer storm.
As nasty as this will be in the northeast and mid atlantic, one may argue that against the normals it is the more extreme event further south. Most of Alabama and GA north of I 20 will have a snowstorm of 4-8 inches with local amounts to 12. Major southern cities such as Birmingham, Atlanta, Charlotte should see 4-8 inches of snow and it will stay on the ground a couple of days.
My forecast, starting midnight tonight, for accumulations is as follows 3 inches Memphis to Charleston WVA to Massena NY on the west side ( this includes, in some places, and event where snow stops, and on the east side Memphis to Meridian Miss, to Augusta Ga to Norfolk va. Obviously there will be rain in these areas at the start but it should end as snow to get the southern boundary to 3 inches.l
6 inches on the west side. Birmingham to Burlington VT.. then Birmingham to Atlanta to Columbia SC to ACY on the east and south side, where rain at the start can hold things down.
Local amounts to a foot, perhaps 18 inches will occur in northern Ga to southwest Va where the closed upper low continues to hold together, and over parts of New England, with some lollipops in N Jersey and perhaps in bands around the big cities. Ratios may increase to 20 to 1 for the last 6 hours of the storm, but blowing and drifting may impair measurements.
There is still room for the western side of the snow to be 50 miles or so further west.. eastward adjustments are not likely now. Like the late Jan 2000 storm I believe this storm will hit its heaviest snowfall south ( remember that gave RDU the most). In other words a 15 inch fall in upstate NC or western NC may be more common than the same amount further.
Make sure you understand, while this is no 1993 superstorm, it will be a major, disruptive cold event with plenty of blowing and drifting.
This is Joe Bastardi's column from Accuweather.
Comment by Zach — February 28, 2009 @ 2:13 pm
I remember that storm well, I drove a snowplow that winter and had a fairly lengthy part of Route 11 in Pulaski County I had to keep clear. Most of the other snows we got that year were fairly small and my plow duties mostly consisted of making sure there was enough salt down to keep the roads from freezing up, because there usually wasn't enough to hit with the plow blade, except in a few drift spots on Ruebush Rd and Old Rte 11.
Comment by Other John — February 28, 2009 @ 2:18 pm
My initial predictions:
Blacksburg/NRV: 1 to 3"
Roanoke: 1 to 3"
Martinsville: 3 to 5"
Lynchburg: 5 to 8"
Danville" 6 to 10"
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 2:42 pm
This is the fun part. Watching it all come together.
First, the temps.
I am sitting at 39 with winds steady out of the NE at 7 MPH. I was at 47 degrees about two hours ago.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 3:46 pm
Very honestly Brandon, I don't think 1-3 is going to be on the menu for ROA/NRV ... it will be either more, maybe significantly more, or little to nothing ...
HPC is all in for a big one ... SW Va. is in moderate risk for 4-plus inches over 2 consecutive 24-hour periods, and slight risk for 8-plus in those same periods. Yes, add it up: a probably very slim risk of 16-plus.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
NWS is starting out conservative at 3-5 inches ... I don't blame them, it's a good middle call they go up or down from ... I do expect that to either go up or go away as the storm develops, it won't stay in the middle.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 4:08 pm
I'm trying something new though, Kev. Predict low and get more than what is expected.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 4:11 pm
The latest run of the North American Model (NAM), the only holdout from the winter storm scenario, is now on board with several hours of moderate to heavy snow for Sunday evening.
I still think there is a slight chance the thing could slip east, but that chance appears to be diwndling. I will be starting a new post with some thoughts when I can find a few moments in the next hour or two.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 4:33 pm
That does it, then. Heading to the store.
Oh, and just a friendly reminder since it's been so long since we've been in this situation:
DON'T EAT YELLOW SNOW!
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 4:37 pm
Don't Jinx it Brandon.
haha jk. Man i sure hope this comes to play
Comment by Zach — February 28, 2009 @ 4:58 pm
We'll be going to the store shortly to get a few minor things for tomorrow and Monday, but since we live less than a mile from Kroger, Food Lion, and a Super Wal-Mart, and it's relatively flat bwteen them all, we're not fretting too much (we also have a 4WD SUV). But for folks out in some of the rural areas, might not be a bad idea to stock up just in case.
Comment by Other John — February 28, 2009 @ 5:14 pm
The GFS shows us with 8+ inches
The NAM shows us with 10+ inches.
I hope the NWS doesn't stay too conservative IF these amounts start to look likely.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 5:14 pm
My wife will not listen to me talk about this storm because she doesn't want to get her hopes up, but I'm officially in the snow spirit.
Comment by ElliotB — February 28, 2009 @ 5:19 pm
Elliot, I don't blame your wife one bit ...though in all fairness, this is the first and only really big storm threat we've had all winter ... what we've missed before have been weak disturbances threatening an inch or two ... in a more typical winter we'd get at least 3-5 of these larger storm threats, 2 or 3 of which would come to fruitioin locally.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 5:32 pm
Brandon, in your comment of 5:14 PM, you spoke of snowfall amounts of 8 and 10 inches. Are you saying that those two models are forecasting those amounts for the Roanoke Valley? Or NRV? Those are very big by Roanoke standards. And are those models "forecasting" those amounts as an overall average, or merely declaring that those amounts are "the potential?" There is a very big difference between those two stances. I am not doubting them (yet), but just want to make sure what area we are talking about. I have lived in SW Roanoke County for 10 full years, and the largest snowfall I have ever seen here is 8.5 inches in that Feb. 28, '05 storm. Highest before that was 6. This storm could do it, because it is in a relatively good position.
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 28, 2009 @ 5:39 pm
Doug: Somewhere on here Zach posted the GFS snowfall map from the 12Z run, and it was 10-12 inches up and down the I-81 corridor ... just a model run, not necessarily reality, but some models are kicking out those kind of amounts ... the overall model trend seems to be the heaviest snow to the east of our region, but that has been trending a little west all day.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 5:43 pm
heading to the store...wish me luck.
Comment by ElliotB — February 28, 2009 @ 5:48 pm
I am cautiosly optimistic!
Comment by Keith — February 28, 2009 @ 6:02 pm
starting to get some snow/sleet mix here.
Comment by John from Charlottesville — February 28, 2009 @ 6:08 pm
Kevin,
As a teacher in dire need of a snow day what would you the chances are say 1 out of 10 in getting a snow day Monday for Roanoke County Schools. I love my job but would love to see a beautiful snow at least once this winter?
Thanks,
John
Comment by John Lafferty — February 28, 2009 @ 6:34 pm
Wow, more weather watchers.
1. Data has trended west no doubt.
2. They struggle with 700 mb forcing west side of a closed ULL.
I'd say 4-8 is safe call for most, with more likely. Chance of 12 + for ROA east is 50%.
Comment by Keith — February 28, 2009 @ 6:40 pm
John: I'm saying there's an 80 percent chance of at least an inch ... so I'd say 8 in 10.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 6:40 pm
Came home from SML to Floyd Co. this afternoon (4:30-5:15) with rain changing over to sleet/snow mix. Saw 2 really bad accidents on slippery roads, sleet was accumulating on US 221 at 5:10 PM. It is 31F here now with light rain; it is starting to freeze on elevated surfaces. The Check ice demon lives...
Comment by Julie — February 28, 2009 @ 6:52 pm
Out here in Botetourt County, off of Country Club Road, we have been seeing significant sleeting since approx. 6:50pm, if that helps to color the picture in any way, shape, or form.
Thanks to all of the weather bloggers, especially Kevin, for keeping the lay-folks advised AND entertained. All the best, with many snowy wishes!
Comment by Kari — February 28, 2009 @ 7:17 pm
It's 34.4 here in Goodview...it has been sleeting for about an hour and has coated the ground/deck. There is a bit of snow now mixing in.
Comment by thinksnow — February 28, 2009 @ 8:09 pm