2009.02.28
UPDATED 7:25 PM: Snowstorm potential very high -- but not quite a lock
UPDATE 7:25 PM: Many reports of sleet and some snow coming in from the Roanoke and New River valleys now as cold temperatures are moving in from the north. You can see some of those reports in the comments at the end of this post. This may portend an early start to wintry weather tonight, and potential for slick spots. This is the first wave, overrunning precipitation, not the major storm that is expected to develop Sunday. END UPDATE
UPDATE 8:35 PM: Here's a photo of snow falling in the lights at Tanglewood Mall, taken by Jordan Fifer of Roanoke.com END UPDATE
A good place to start when so much guidance is now leaning toward a significant snowfall ... possibly major snowstorm ... for Southwest Virginia is: What can go wrong?
Lots -- but none of it is likely at this point.
(1) The storm could simply slip just east of our area. All forecast guidance is now leaning against this idea, but weather doesn't happen in computers, it happens in the atmosphere, and that's at least a slight possibility.
(2) The sharp back edge of the snow shield could set up just east of our area, or even halfway across our area. It could set up between Roanoke and Blacksburg, with the Star City shoveling while the Drillfield is dry. Is that likely ... no way. But there will be someone somewhere on the outside looking in. Probably eastern West Virginia and the coalfields of far southwest Virginia at this point, but those areas aren't out of the running for snow either, especially if westward trends continue (and some of those places will get snow tonight before the bigger storm even matters).
(3) Forecasters in the weather service office at Blacksburg are a bit concerned that convection near the coast will cut off moisture flow. This is a concern to be sure, but it's usually more of a problem when our main flow from the Gulf of Mexico is cut off rather than a secondary flow from the Atlantic, as would be the case this time. This would more likely cut down rather than cut out snowfall, but some marginal western fringe areas might not get the moisture they need for snow.
(4) There's some chance that surface temperatures will be a little warm when the precipitation begins, and we might lose a little early precipitation to rain and sleet, cutting down on snow totals.
But there's also a lot that can go wrong on the other side of the forecast, in the direction of more snow. There is a chance that the upper-low gets cranking right overhead, convective bands of snow move through that dump multiple inches in an hour, and the comma-head snow area only slowly departs Monday. If some or all of that happens, then not only will Roanoke's almost snowless winter go by the boards, but the 13-year hiatus since the last foot-deep snowstorm could end. Possible, yes. Likely ... almost never is a foot of snow likely more than 18 hours before show time. Even the mighty 2-footer of early January 1996 started with a 6-to-10-inch forecast.
You will notice that the National Weather Service-Blacksburg has eliminated counties along the Virginia-West Virginia border from the winter storm watch. In fact, those counties, Giles, Bland, and other neighboring counties, typically some of the heaviest-snow counties in our area, are islands in a sea of advisories and watches. I wouldn't be surprised if these counties get added back into a watch, warning or advisory later on Sunday, but for now, the weather service is expecting the sharp cutoff to fall about right there. (Also those counties have a slightly higher threshhold for a winter storm ... 5 inches instead of 4, as it is from the Roanoke Valley east). So, let it be noted that Roanoke County and Montgomery County are on the western fringe of the winter storm watch. Something to keep in mind, though I personally expect a slight shift west in this forecast.
The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center agrees, as judged by its 4-inch and 8-inch maps through Sunday evening, and the 4-inch and 8-inch maps from Sunday evening through Monday evening. Taken literally, these depict what would be as much of an I-81 snowstorm in Virginia as the much vaunted I-95 snowstorm ... though it would really be both.
So inside of 24 hours when snow may begin falling (besides whatever might occur overnight, not much south of I-64, I don't think), I'm thinking this one is a GO.
If the Roanoke Valley misses this one ... it's just simply not meant to snow in 2008-09, and let's get the heck on with spring.
Some revised probabilities for snowfall in Roanoke:
Less than 1 inch: 20 percent
1 to 3 inches: 10 percent
3 to 6 inches: 30 percent
6 to 12 inches: 25 percent
12-plus inches: 15 percent
RSS feed 
!!!!!!!!!!!!
Please, please, please please, please
SNOW
we have not had an organized storm over our area since 06'. It's about time for one.
Comment by Zach — February 28, 2009 @ 6:04 pm
NWS still thinks the heaviest snow will be east of Roanoke. This would be put 1 to 4 inches in Roanoke. And the mets on WDBJ and WSLS are only calling for a slushy inch.
From NWS:
ON TO THE STORM WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE SE AND MOVES UP THE COAT OR
FARTHER INLAND. SEEMS A MAJORITY HAS DEVELOPED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH EVEN THE 18Z NAM NOW FARTHER WEST THAN
THE 12Z RUN. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALLOW MORE WARM AIR TO MIX
IN...HOLDING BACK THE COLD SURGE FROM THE NW...AND WILL NOT MAKE
DETERMINING ACCUMS ANY EASIER. ATTM...POTENTIAL EXIST FOR BEST
ACCUMS LATER AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE OF VA AND
NC...PERHAPS 1 TO 4 INCHES. BUT...WOULD THINK THE MOST
SNOW...HEAVIEST SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH NIGHTFALL AND THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW ALONG PERHAPS A LYH/MWK
CORRIDOR.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 6:28 pm
HPC and NWS have been on different pages almost from the get-go with this ... but heavier snow to the east is still the general call of almost everybody.
I'm still of the mindset that it's big or nothing ... not a slushy inch, but either 4-plus or a miss ... I could be wrong.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 6:34 pm
I know where you stand. And I know what my opinion is.
However, it just doesn't seem right that the majority of Roanoke's populace won't be ready for this (IF the potential comes to fruition) because the local mets on the news are playing it too safe.
Why not say 3 to 5 inches like the NWS stated in the Winter Storm Watch? Wouldn't that make the most sense?
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 6:36 pm
They've been burned before. The TV mets have to make a specific call for several different areas, whereas I get to discuss and speculate and hit all the possibilities. So I'm not one to criticize them. They get 5 minutes to explain an extremely complex situation and I get as much space as I can fill.
I do want to see the 0Z model runs tonight before really blowing the horn on this.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 6:39 pm
I agree, I really want it to SNOW HEAVY for which our water table increase before we head into spring and fire season. We need this snow, that will gradually sink moisture into the ground. I also would love to see a wonderful snowfall, I have a good feeling about this one.
Kevin-How much rain did Roanoke get today?
Comment by DAVID S — February 28, 2009 @ 6:40 pm
NWS-Blacksburg seems to going for about 4 inches in both Blacksburg and Roanoke per the map on its Current Events page (scroll down):
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer_winter.php
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 6:51 pm
Reports of sleet/snow in Floyd Co. high elevations (per Julie on the last thread) and even some sleet mixed with rain in Roanoke (per my wife) ... so the cold air is sinking in ... wondering if we coax something out of tonight's precip after all.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 6:55 pm
Kevin, sleeting pretty heavily in Pulaski County too near New River/Fairlawn/Radford. Enough to coat the walkways and cars, and still falling.
Comment by Other John — February 28, 2009 @ 7:00 pm
Moderate rain/sleet here at the airport.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 7:11 pm
Kevin,
Was sleeting heavily starting about 3pm on and off for a few hours. There is now spotty ice from freezing rain, temp is hovering between 30-31 degrees. I am at 2800 ft in elevation.
Comment by Indian Valley John — February 28, 2009 @ 7:17 pm
All sleet now here.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 7:20 pm
The freezing temps are coming in about 5 hrs. before projected, so we might well get something out of tonight's precip. I just checked the yard; the chickens' fence is bowing with ice accretion, the mailbox was completely iced over, and ice is starting to accumulate on the grass and sidewalk, too. Sounded like some sleet mixing in with the rain at this time, as well. Kevin, your earlier comment about reconsidering travel the next few days bears repeating. I wouldn't want to drive right now, that's for sure.
Comment by Julie — February 28, 2009 @ 7:22 pm
Moderate to heavy snow here at Roanoke Regional, Kev!!!!!!!!
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 7:32 pm
Sleeting downtown.
Wow, Brandon ... very unexpected development. I never expected to see snow by 7:30 p.m. anywhere in the Roanoke Valley.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 7:33 pm
It is definitely snowing. It may have been awhile since it happened here, but I know it when I see it! It was a quick changeover.. we had Rain fifteen minutes ago, then a short period of sleet, and now light/moderate snowfall!
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 7:35 pm
It is freezing rain in Hardy. It's so nice to see something resembling winter.
Comment by Jennifer — February 28, 2009 @ 7:36 pm
It's a rain/snow/sleet mix now. It just keeps changing back and forth.
I think the key, though, is that this means it's capable of snowing here during this event.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 7:39 pm
Freezing rain has changed over to all sleet/snow mix. Has started accumulating on grass, cars, pavement. Whoo-hoo!!!!
Comment by Julie — February 28, 2009 @ 7:45 pm
We're back to all snow.
Here we go!
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 7:48 pm
Mixing with snow downtown, too now. This is the warmest spot in SW Virginia ... I've literally crossed a bridge from rain into snow before. So if it's snowing here, it can be snowing almost anywhere.
Let's see if this gets heavy enough and it gets cold enough to stick some before the precip band pulls through.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 7:52 pm
Looks like the back edge of precip is getting ready to move through, though.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 7:52 pm
Still raining here in Salem. I've been watching the temperature fall, but it is still 39.2.
Comment by Jim D — February 28, 2009 @ 7:52 pm
Gentlemen, start your engines.....
Comment by Julie — February 28, 2009 @ 7:54 pm
Cold air is moving in from northeast ... so west Salem would possibly be the last place in Roanoke Valley to get cold enough for sleet/snow.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 7:54 pm
How exciting! Kevin, thanks for your diligence. I always check you as you are always so informative and interesting.
Comment by Susan — February 28, 2009 @ 7:56 pm
To me, this is a sign.
But I'll try not to get ahead of myself.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 7:56 pm
All snow here in Blacksburg now. We did have sleet/snow/rain for a while.
Comment by Angela — February 28, 2009 @ 7:56 pm
It's all snow here in Botetourt....falling at a moderate clip, as well. My 4-year-old-son is at the door yelling, "Come on, snow, bring me a snowman!". I echo his sentiment.
Comment by Kari — February 28, 2009 @ 7:58 pm
At 7:30 p.m. we have rain and what appears to be sleet here in the Oak Grove area. My vehicle is still warm from being driven this afternoon but folks who have stayed home have forzen accumulation about 1/3 of the way up their windshields. (crossing fingers, toes and wearing lucky jinglebell boxers hoping for snow!)
Comment by Saintbridge — February 28, 2009 @ 8:01 pm
Still sleet and freezing rain here in my part of southwest Floyd County.
Sigh, waiting for snow.
Comment by Indian Valley John — February 28, 2009 @ 8:08 pm
We were at Kroger at Lakeside about an hour ago and it was sleeting pretty good. I live off of Apperson and walked outside and you can hear the ice hitting the rooftops. So it's definitely starting here.
Comment by Misty — February 28, 2009 @ 8:14 pm
SNOW???? What is this foreign word you are all speaking of ??!! Surely it couldn't be....how would we act? It could cause people to run from their homes with celebration! YAHOOOOOOOOOOOO if it is true!
Comment by Wanda — February 28, 2009 @ 8:16 pm
Had some heavy sleet/rain mix about an hour ago (when I left the not-so-packed store) but it's turned back to rain and 37 in South Roanoke City.
Comment by ElliotB — February 28, 2009 @ 8:23 pm
It has been snowing for the last 45 mins near Tanglewood and the snow is starting to stick on the tops of cars.
Comment by DAVID S — February 28, 2009 @ 8:26 pm
It was good to see. Didn't stick much except to rooftops and cartops and a little bit of the grass.
I expect that to change tomorrow night and monday when we're sitting under a half foot of snow.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 8:27 pm
ITS SNOWING HERE ON BENT MOUNTAIN.EVERYTHING BUT THE PAVEMENT IS WHITE.I HOPE WE GET A FOOT OR MORE !!!!!!
Comment by JAMIE — February 28, 2009 @ 8:37 pm
Kevin --
I'm going to try and drive back from Richmond to Roanoke via 460 tomorrow. Here it's raining, so not having seen Roanoke would that be a foolhardy move?
Comment by Mason — February 28, 2009 @ 8:38 pm
Mason, and anyone wanting to travel Sunday: Before noon is best. The storm may start cranking up during the afternoon.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 8:41 pm
A little diversion for a moment. At least twice in recent weeks commenters made fairly negative remarks about local tv meteorologists; on each occasion WDBJ7 was mentioned. Yes, they have been known to miss forecasts, and I readily admit that they sometimes seem to be reluctant to even forecast any precip in their 7-day outlook when Kevin and others here are already talking about likely precip. However, I have exchanged e-mails on numerous occasions with each current member of the Channel 7 weather team, and each time they were professional, courteous, timely, and sometimes apologetic when they did miss a forecast fairly badly. And how well would any of us do if we had to come up with a forecast 365 days a year?? This message is intended to further endorse what Kevin has already declared. Believe me, we could do a lot worse. Many times they have been right when TWC, Accuweather, and Weather Underground and even the NWS were off. Please try to keep that in mind in future comments.
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 28, 2009 @ 8:42 pm
SE RKE is snow/sleet mix, or it was 20 mins ago. Hard to see whats going on when you don't have a streetlight.
Comment by roanokefound — February 28, 2009 @ 8:42 pm
Has changed over to mostly snow now. Road is covered, grass is all white. More snow than we've seen all winter... it is pretty out there
Comment by Julie — February 28, 2009 @ 8:43 pm
Heavy wet snow/sleet here in SW Roanoke City with accumulation on grass and porches, but nothing yet on the streets.
Comment by Jay — February 28, 2009 @ 8:46 pm
Doug,
It was not my intention to insinuate the mets didn't know what they were doing. I apologize if it came off that way.
My point was simply that I wish there could be one standard when it comes to watches/warnings being issued. My main "beef" was that they didn't explain the parameters of the watch to the general public. They just said "winter storm watch, slushy inch of snow". Not everyone watching knows that a Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for four inches or more of snow.
I think it would have been a good idea if they had explained the official parameters of the NWS watch guidelines. That's all.
Believe me, I have no allusions that I could do a better job than someone who went to college and studied this stuff. I just hate hearing about people that weren't prepared for at least the potential as outlined in the official NWS watch.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 8:48 pm
Rain and sleet changed to all snow in Radford/Fairlawn.
Comment by Ralph — February 28, 2009 @ 8:50 pm
It's changed over to wet snow here in C'burg. Franklin street is almost covered, and our side streets are all white now. Actually just had trouble making it up our driveway. It's coming down quite hard now.
Comment by Bill — February 28, 2009 @ 8:53 pm
It is coming down hard. I haven't seen it snow like this in... four years.
Sticking to everything except the road.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 8:54 pm
Steady snow downtown now ... not sticking yet ... but my wife says it is in south Roanoke ...
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 8:59 pm
The NAM model is coming out now.. it looks a bit farther east. Not good.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 9:00 pm
Kevin,
I know this isn't the main event - so to speak - but how long is this band expected to fall in Roanoke? It's already sticking here in SW -- will we get anything measurable out of it tonight before the big one tomorrow evening?
Comment by Jay — February 28, 2009 @ 9:00 pm
We are getting a burst of heavy snow in SW Roanoke County near Tanglewood Mall with at least 1/2 inch of snow on the ground. It looks really pretty outside.
Comment by DAVID S — February 28, 2009 @ 9:01 pm
Sleet sticking to the ground near East of Callaway.
Comment by R. David Ellis — February 28, 2009 @ 9:02 pm
Excellent points, Brandon. And I agree that whichever tv weather guy or gal simply issued that forecast without mentioning the 4-inch possibility of the watch could have and should have done better. That is an important fact about such a watch. The folowing comment is about me when I was younger, not you. I was much more "flip" along with some of my friends about making overly negative generalizations about people or things. Age has brought me some wisdom (which ain't sayin' much!). When I hear someone I know and like making a gross over-generalization (and they basically know they are doing it, too), I immediately comment on it now to bring them back to reality. Way too many people "in the public's eye" are making outrageous, nearly always nasty comments.
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 28, 2009 @ 9:03 pm
freesing rain, then sleet, now snow in Rocky Mount. sticking to roads in country.
Comment by scott m — February 28, 2009 @ 9:04 pm
I'll back your wife up on that one Kevin. Sticking light snow here in South Roanoke City.
Comment by ElliotB — February 28, 2009 @ 9:05 pm
SW Rke city snow coming down hard. Sticking on cars,grass, the dog house, but nothing on the street. Getting a bit more optimistic about a good snow.
Comment by Keith — February 28, 2009 @ 9:05 pm
There is a heavier band moving through Roanoke area on radar, probably won't last too long, but some redevelopment behind it ... not expecting more than an inch from tonight's stuff
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 9:07 pm
Back to the weather. Very pretty 1/4 inch of soft snow on our back deck, grass, etc (everything except our walk and driveway, which are still wet). But radar shows that this area of precip will probably be ending soon for us folks in SW Roanoke County. Adney Gap area (just south of Bent Mountain) is quickly becoming "dry" as precip moves NNE and NE.
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 28, 2009 @ 9:07 pm
Change back to FzRn here - very slick roads. Be very careful if you need to drive anywhere this evening, folks!!
Comment by Julie — February 28, 2009 @ 9:07 pm
Geeez NAM is further east, and 18z GFS didnt really change much!! Man if this thing misses us east...
Comment by Zach — February 28, 2009 @ 9:12 pm
Heavy snow falling in Salem...ground temperature is down to 37.1.
Comment by Jim D — February 28, 2009 @ 9:13 pm
NAM is a hint east but moisture is more developed on the backside, and NAM usually underestimates moisture swath ... not much of a change in my thinking based on it.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 9:14 pm
Well, at 9:13 - it's stuck to everything not concrete or asphalt here in SE.
Got my fingers crossed.
Apparently, this storm system poses such a threat it's made The Drudge Report!
Comment by roanokefound — February 28, 2009 @ 9:14 pm
Still no snow here. I must be just outside of the bands moving through if Check, Radford and Montgomery Cty are getting snow.
Comment by Indian Valley John — February 28, 2009 @ 9:15 pm
I can tell you that it's an amazing site here at the airport.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 9:15 pm
got s solid bit of very wet snow, adding up to just under an inch.
Comment by Other John — February 28, 2009 @ 9:25 pm
Hey, Kevin, how about an update later this evening -- midnight or so -- as to what RRA received officially "today." You know, for the Snowfall contest ... According to TWC's Weekly Planner map (hey, people, I only refer to it because it is the only website that I know of that presents a map of the entire lower 48 with forecasts for rain, snow, sleet, or dry ... I am not endorsing it or agreeing with it necessarily), the only area of the country shown in white (which I think means a 6+ inch snowfall) is ..... NE Bamalama!!!! Rain as far north as the middle peninsula of Virginia!! Weird-looking map. If a person was drunk and looked at it quickly, he or she might think someone got things backward.
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 28, 2009 @ 9:26 pm
Something I noticed about the NAM run..
Seems to have a long duration event for us.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 9:27 pm
Actually a wee bit of snow accumulation on the grass here in downtown ROA ...
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 9:38 pm
On the way back to Newport from Roanoke, the Rt. 42 from Newcastle to Newport vanished under the snow. At the moment, at 9:40, there are a few inches on the ground, and it's snowing fairly hard.
Comment by Danny — February 28, 2009 @ 9:42 pm
The ground here in Hollins is starting to turn white. Haven't seen it snow this hard in four years or so.
Comment by Jeff Watson — February 28, 2009 @ 9:43 pm
Everybody says they haven't seen it snow this hard in four years....what about the snow last January where Roanoke ended up with about 5 inches?
Comment by Bradley — February 28, 2009 @ 9:50 pm
Check out the Hokie Webcam at http://www.vtnews.vt.edu the drillfield is covered with snow!
Comment by hokie mom — February 28, 2009 @ 9:53 pm
Just got back from a walk. Roads look okay, sidewalks are slick, grass is covered.
This is at the Hershberger/Williamson road intersection near Walgreens and Bank Of America near the airport.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 9:54 pm
Bradley is correct: There was a 5 inch snow in mid-January of 2008, a 1-2 inch forecast before sleet that turned into a nice dump .. there was 4-inch clipper in early Feb. of 2007, and a 5-inch snow in mid Feb. of 2006 ... so there has been one significant snowfall a winter even in this slump .. but this winter has gone so long without decent snow that it does stretch the memory!
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 9:56 pm
Heavy, wet snow on top of a little frozen rain. Pushing past the 1" mark here in Sinking Creek, Craig Co. at 2500' elevation.
Comment by DM Forester — February 28, 2009 @ 10:05 pm
It's nice to finally see some snow. I hope this is a positive sign for tomorrow nights main event! Lets go snow gods- 12+" to make up for the way you treated us this winter.
Comment by george k — February 28, 2009 @ 10:06 pm
Snow fading off here in SW Roanoke City with the accumulation totaling so far just a dusting. But it looks like there might be a glaze of slush on the pavement -- be careful, folks!
Comment by Jay — February 28, 2009 @ 10:08 pm
Correct that, Danny was right. We are at a measured 1.9" in Sinking Creek.
Comment by DM Forester — February 28, 2009 @ 10:08 pm
Some of these reports coming out of TN are staggering, Kevin.
One place has already picked up 11 inches.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 10:09 pm
Brandon refers to western TN where the upper-low has been spinning about near where Tenn/Ark/Mo meet ... my parents have got a few inches of snow in NE Arkansas tonight with snow pinwheeling back on them ... this is the upper-low that will be the spark for whatever happens Sunday night.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 10:11 pm
Am I wrong in thinking that says something about the potential strength of this system?
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 10:16 pm
Not at all, Brandon. But it also says something about localized and spotty heavy snow can be within the broader snow band. No one was expecting 10-plus inches over there, and most places did in fact get only 3-5. But there were exceptions with heavier snow bands. That will happen to someone in the East, too.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 10:18 pm
Hi Kevin,
Just over an inch of snow here on Peakwood at 1500 ft in South Roanoke. Light snow falling, temp is 32. Thanks for all your updates and to everyone else as well. We all seem to come together for a big snow event!
Steve
Comment by Steve Murray — February 28, 2009 @ 10:24 pm
Now is about the time we start watching this thing come together and not focus so much on the models. Like Kevin has said previously, at this point, it's sometimes easier to tell what's coming next by what is actually happening in the atmosphere and not on the computer screen.
I noticed that most of the flakes we had tonight were very large. Correct me if I'm wrong, Kev, but I think this means the air aloft is certainly colder than expected (consider the time it took to change over, too!) and our snow ratios should be really good tomorrow night.
I don't think Roanoke is going to miss out on this one. I also am not convinced that we'll see a foot or more. I think this will be your standard issue 6 to 10 inch snow with isolated higher amounts. Areas such as Lynchburg and Richmond might stand the best chance of cracking a foot.
Regardless, it's going to be interesting to watch. Our first real winter storm of the year and it comes on the first day of meteorological Spring.
I expect Winter Storm Warnings to go up for the watch areas early tomorrow morning. This storm is going to affect a lot of people over a very large area of the eastern United States. It probably won't be the next storm of the century, but it will be disruptive.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 10:30 pm
Seems like the 00z NAM still wants to have the main precip just to the east of the Roanoke Valley. I would be feeling good about my chances for a significant snowfall if I lived in Lynchburg. Still not sure about Roanoke. OOz GFS coming out now should be interesting.
Comment by Dan S. — February 28, 2009 @ 10:33 pm
Kevin, Taking into account everything on the models and what's happening now, are we still in the thick of this thing or are the totals looking less?
Comment by ElliotB — February 28, 2009 @ 10:39 pm
We have always been considered west of the bullseye on this, though that bullseye moved westward ... I don't think anything substantively has changed from earlier expectations, but there is a risk this runs a little east of us ... we are likely not dead center of the snow area, there is a sharp back cutoff likely to form somewhere, and locations 30 miles east of that cutoff might still get several inches while folks just west are on the outside looking in. That's why I keep saying I think it will be a big hit (4-plus) or a total miss and not something in between.
The NAM does have a tendency to underdo moisture returns, and sometimes you get a better idea of where precip will fall looking at the 700 mb RH charts rather than the actual green blobs on the surface map ... if that is the case, even on the NAM we will be moisture-rich at snow time tomorrow night.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 10:44 pm
Well, the ooz GFS seems to leave Roanoke just out of the really good snow much like the NAM. Hopefully we will get a 50 mile shift west.
Comment by Dan S. — February 28, 2009 @ 10:45 pm
GFS looks nice.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 10:46 pm
Thanks for the update. I guess it's bed time. I'm so excited about snow I may not be able to sleep. I guess that's what happens when you live in NY for 20 years and then get snow deprived in the south.
Comment by ElliotB — February 28, 2009 @ 10:47 pm
Dan, Brandon: Different interpretations of the same model.
This frame at 30 hours shows pretty heavy precipitation in our area:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_030.shtml
I would not agree that the GFS looks like the NAM in details of moisture in the area ... but it still shows heaviest precipitation east of Roanoke. Some of that heavy precipitation out east may not be snow. GFS looks like a significant snowfall for Roanoke, 3-6ish, but not the monster storm.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 10:50 pm
Still snowing here in Pulaski COunty pretty decently. The accumulation is about an inch, but it's so wet and still above freezing so it's compacting on itself and melting fairly rapidly too. Everything is white except the roads here.
Comment by Other John — February 28, 2009 @ 10:55 pm
I just have a feeling that by morning we will all be too far west. Please I pray I'm wrong.
Comment by Zach — February 28, 2009 @ 10:58 pm
Well, however it turns out this has at least given us one last interesting weather scenario before winter ends. What I have on my back deck (Roanoke City) right now exceeds anything we have had since November. Thanks for the blog Kevin. Nice to have a local forum.
Comment by Dan S. — February 28, 2009 @ 10:58 pm
Kevin,do you think 6" ammounts are possible as far west as Galax?
Comment by Zach — February 28, 2009 @ 10:59 pm
6 inches in Galax ... very possible. The GFS gives you that much. Guaranteed: No way.
It's almost time to dump the models and start watching the storm in real time now.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 11:05 pm
Lights out for me. We'll see what the situation looks like in the morning.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 11:08 pm
I've been watching the NAM and GFS total snowfall forecast maps and they both have most of the area with at least 3-4 inches. The NAM is the lower one keeping most of the storm east of here, but Roanoke would make out better than the NRV with it. NAM shows 8-10 for Roanoke and eastward with 12-15 from Danville up toward Richmond, and 2-4 for the NRV westward. GFS shows 10-12 for both NRV and Roanoke Valleys across most locations, with the sharp drop-off in snowfall at the VA/WV line. So both seem to keep the axis of heaviest snows in the Piedmont area, but the GFS is indicating a further west track than the NAM. I guess we'll see which one is right.
Comment by Other John — February 28, 2009 @ 11:09 pm
Kevin-
Since I discovered your blog several months ago I'm always sure to check it out daily- you do an outstanding job!
Typically up in Lexington, if anything we get just a bit more accumulation than is predicted for Roanoke. Do you think that will that be the case tomorrow?
Comment by Matt — February 28, 2009 @ 11:16 pm
WXII out of Winston is calling for 3-7", and saying the storm looks to be tracking further west than expected.
Comment by Zach — February 28, 2009 @ 11:16 pm
Matt: I think Lexington and Roanoke are pretty much in the same boat with the SW-NE orientation of this thing.
Zach: It's all enough to make your head spin isn't it.
Comment by kevinmyatt — February 28, 2009 @ 11:24 pm
Yes it deffintly is! Idk, I just hope when I wake up 7 hours from now were in Winter Storm Warnings.
Comment by Zach — February 28, 2009 @ 11:28 pm
I feel like a kid hoping for a snow day. My head is starting to spin with all the maps and models; is it just to far east or is it coming back west. Will we get nothing or a foot. All I know is my son is 7 and I have yet to have a snowball fight with him.
Comment by Keith — February 28, 2009 @ 11:37 pm
One more thing..
Be careful in the morning. Temps have dropped below freezing and it's still snowing lightly here in Roanoke. Add that to all the water that could freeze on the roads overnight and you could have some issues in the morning.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 28, 2009 @ 11:40 pm
Our sleet has changed over to 100% snow. Its interesting how it was colder up here earlier than ROA all day but we still started off with a strong band of sleet. Interesting too how we have a wind at about 10 mph. Usually the wind is dead calm when we have snowfall generated by something other than a clipper or occasional upslope snow showers.
Comment by John in Charlottesville — February 28, 2009 @ 11:59 pm
Whichever model shows the snowfall staying the furthest east seems to be the one that Jay Webb and Channel 7 is going with. On his 11:18PM weather segment, Jay had a predictive radar showing the precip south of the Virginia-NC border during most of the daylight hours on Sunday, then when the storm moves NE-ward, it practically misses Roanoke but did include Lynchburg on the western edge of the system. I was surprised by it, and tend to agree with all the models that are being quoted here on the blog showing an additional 3 or 4 inches tomorrow night early Monday.
Comment by Doug Griggs — March 1, 2009 @ 12:13 am
NWS has downgraded us to a winter weather adv. 2"-4" but HPC maps now show us in the bullseye for >4+" and still possible for 8"+-FRUSTRATING-Hopefully we get a very active snow band setting up over us tonight. If this misses us to the south and east I'm moving before next winter!!!
Comment by george k — March 1, 2009 @ 7:04 am
Snow go away! The way the world is today, snow will not get you a day off. Rather you will have to risk smashing up your car, or at the very least, driving through a salt mixture that destroys the finish and the undercarriage, trying to get there. Public transportation in the suburbs is a joke, cabs will be few, and the buses only run the main routes. Nope, the less snow (if any) the better I say. I don't feel like shoveling walks or slinging ice melt.
Comment by Herm Randon — March 1, 2009 @ 8:54 am