2009.03.22
Storms in the Plains signal spring; it may be wet here later in week
Here's a sign that spring is under way. The first Plains severe weather outbreak of the season appears likely to occur on Monday, with parts of Oklahoama and Kansas already placed under a moderate risk of severe weather, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Several of the ingredients are there as colder, drier air from the west meets warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, with daytime heating and strong winds aloft. The main question is whether this erupts suddenly into a huge mass of thunderstorms, which would make hail and high winds the major concern, or whether more discrete cells can develop and be spun by upper-level winds, which would put a tornado outbreak on the plate of possibility.
This particular system is not expected to have a major impact on Southwest Virginia's weather, but could set the stage for a possibly wet and stormy period toward the week's end. That's something to keep an eye on throughout the week. Temperatures this week will not be especially warm, and may even slip back into daylong 40s by Wednesday, as cooler air wedges in from the northeast, before slowly become milder going into the weekend.
RSS feed 
THe rain will be welcome. I got out and started mowing and was kicking up a ton of dust. Even with the slightly above-normal rainfall to start the year, things are pretty dry. I dug a hole to install a post for our new rain guage and the ground was only slightly moist even after the rain last weekend.
Comment by Other John — March 22, 2009 @ 10:05 pm
People, I just realized something very different about this March compared to the most recent 4 Marches (March 2005 - March 2008), so I went to the NOAA Daily Climate Data page that I maintain as a "favorite," and sure enough, my instincts were accurate. This March so far has had the fewest really windy days of the last 5. The only day so far this month that had a peak gust of more than 31 mph was March 9th, 44 mph. Last year had 14 days with winds of at least 32 mph, and the numbers for 2005, 2006, and 2007 were 9 such days, 7 and 7. Kevin, any thoughts as to what this could mean for the rest of the spring? It sure is pleasant for us letter carriers to have not so many very windy days .....
Comment by Doug Griggs — March 22, 2009 @ 10:16 pm
I wonder if that could be related to the general lack of storm systems this month, Doug. Other than the snow on the 1st and the rains a weekend ago, we really haven't had anything to speak of. Interesting observation though, definitely true and I noticed it too.
Comment by Other John — March 23, 2009 @ 11:34 am
Few Arctic fronts or dynamic storms (weekend rains were mostly overrunning moisture, not a strong low pressure system), so not much in the way of wind this month.
As for severe weather today, some stuff is starting to fire in the Plains. The wind dynamics are definitely there for high-end severe weather, but the instability and the moisture aren't spectacular. Would expect to see several reports of wind and hail and a few tornadoes, probably no especially violent ones, unless it were an isolated one way down near the south end in Oklahoma.
Late week still looking wet for a lot of areas that need it.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — March 23, 2009 @ 4:19 pm
Well Kevin.. it looks like I'll be leaving Southwest VA permanently next week. A job has opened up for me and so I'll be heading off to the Mile High City.
I know weather is a lot different in Denver. So it should be interesting.
I will still drop in on this blog from time to time and see what's happening here in good ol' Roanoke. And I promise.. the first time we get upslope while I'm there and we end up with 36 inches of snow, I'll try not to brag too much.
Take care, guys!
Comment by Brandon R. — March 23, 2009 @ 6:09 pm
Brandon: Glad for your great opportunity in Denver! It's a very different weather scene there ... not just the big snowstorms, but heat waves, extreme cold, and big thunderstorms. You will be very interested in all that, not to mention the scenic beauty of the Front Range. Thanks for contributing so many comments to this board, and you're welcome back anytime!
Comment by Kevin Myatt — March 23, 2009 @ 10:31 pm
Congrats Brandon, and enjoy the change of scenery. For some weird reason, I've always wanted to make my way a bit north of there to Calgary, which is very similar in the weather patterns, though a little cooler overall because of the latitude difference. But their weather is very similar with the extremes of weather being the constant, since it's common for them to have extreme cold and snow in winter, mixed with several days in the 50's and 60's when the downslope winds blow in.
Comment by Other John — March 24, 2009 @ 2:00 pm