2009.03.27
Heavy rain likely; severe thunderstorms much less likely
First, just a note about extremes with the storm system approaching us. Yes, Texas is a huge state, but the contrast across it today was stunning. While the Panhandle region was experiencing a blizzard with temperatures in the teens, Harlingen in south Texas set a record high for the date of 101 degrees. Summer and winter a few hundred miles apart. Not surprisingly, there was angry spring weather in the middle, including hail, high winds and tornadoes.
We've had three or four disturbances (I've honestly lost count) bring us a series of rounds of rain since Wednesday. On Saturday, the core system will finally affect us, as a strong low pressure system heads northeast from Texas toward the Great Lakes and drags a strong cold front into the area (strong in the sense of wind dynamics ... it's a Pacific front, so not extremely cold stuff for our region). This low will pull more Gulf of Mexico moisture than we've seen yet into our region, and we could see some heavy rain, with the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center projecting 1.5 to 2 inches of rain over much of Southwest Virginia through Sunday evening (the rain should actually end Sunday morning).
We may even hear a few rumbles of thunder on Saturday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center continues to have us at the edge of the slight risk zone for severe weather on Saturday, but it appears that the cool air wedge east of the mountains will limit severe weather in our immediate area. Without surface heating, it will be hard to build the updrafts into cooler air aloft necessary for large and powerful thunderstorms. However, because of the extreme wind energy involved in this storm, a few severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out with a few of the stronger storms in our region. It will mostly be a heavy rain event here, with a more serious severe weather threat from the Deep South into the Carolinas.
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I just watched The Weather Channel at 6:18 A.M., and according to them we are not in an area where even normal thunderstorms are a threat for the next 12 hours. Nor is most of North Caro. However, Kentucky, Tenn., Georgia and especially south MS., Alabama, south Georgia are. last 3 areas under threat of severe tstorms.
Comment by Doug Griggs — March 28, 2009 @ 6:26 am
Going out 24 hours, Storm Prediction Center still shows wider threat area, though not surprisingly our region of SW Va. has been removed from the slight risk of severe weather (though inside the brown line indicating chance of mild storms):
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
It could be that biggest chance is tonight, after 12-hour period.
Looking at radar this morning it does kinda look like the thing is trying to do the familiar "spliteroo" with moisture to the south, dynamics to the NW ... but I think the plug of rain/storms south of us has enough northeast-motion to get here later today, and there will probably be some new development along the front itself.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — March 28, 2009 @ 12:04 pm
SPC just really trimmed back on its severe risk area, basically now a pocket west of the mountains and another from the eastern Va. coast southwest into the Carolinas and Georgia.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
I'm not really surprised by any of this, it's just too cool and stable in our region for much in the way of severe weather.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — March 28, 2009 @ 12:55 pm
It looks like convection to your south is cutting off the moisture.
Comment by Brandon R. — March 28, 2009 @ 4:40 pm